2026 El Niño Set to Be the Largest in 150 Years
Introduction
Researchers are warning that the El Niño climate pattern currently strengthening in the Pacific Ocean is on track to be the largest one recorded in at least 150 years. Speaking at a recent press briefing, scientists said the event could combine with existing global warming to push 2027 to record-breaking global temperatures, with a real possibility that even 2026 itself could end up among the hottest years ever recorded. Here's what's actually driving this forecast, and what it could mean.
Table of Contents
- What Researchers Are Actually Saying
- What Makes This El Niño Different
- How Strong Could It Get?
- Why 2027 Could Break Temperature Records
- The Economic Cost of a Super El Niño
- Who Will Be Affected Most
- What Happens After the El Niño Fades
- El Niño vs. Climate Change: Untangling the Two
- How This Compares to Past El Niño Events
- Case Studies: The 1997-98 Super El Niño
- Common Misconceptions About El Niño
- What to Watch For in the Coming Months
- FAQs
- Conclusion
- Key Takeaways
What Researchers Are Actually Saying
According to researchers speaking at a recent press briefing, the El Niño climate pattern strengthening in the Pacific Ocean is on track to be the largest one in at least 150 years — a claim described by at least one outlet covering the briefing as being potentially the largest on record by a "mind-blowing margin." If the forecasts these researchers presented hold up, the surge of heat the El Niño releases from the ocean, combined with warming from human-caused climate change, will likely make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded, along with significant extreme weather impacts across many parts of the world.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather has also noted there's a fair chance the event could boost temperatures enough in the coming months to make 2026 itself a record hot year, even before the event's full effects are felt in 2027.
What Makes This El Niño Different
What sets the 2026 event apart isn't just its projected strength, but how far outside historical experience its models are projecting. The historical analogues typically used to calibrate El Niño impact forecasts — what a strong event does to East African rainfall, the South American jet stream, or Atlantic hurricane wind shear — were calibrated against prior events that peaked at ocean temperature anomalies between roughly 2.4°C and 2.75°C. Current models for the 2026 event project peaks around 3.6°C, which climate scientist Zeke Hausfather has described as an event operating "outside the entire historical envelope" — not simply a bigger version of what's been observed before, but genuinely uncharted territory for forecasters.
NOAA has reportedly raised the probability of a record-shattering peak to 81% as of recent forecasts, with the agency's next official ENSO Diagnostic Discussion scheduled for August 13.
How Strong Could It Get?
As of earlier forecasts in 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had estimated roughly a 1-in-3 chance the event would qualify as "strong" during the October–December 2026 period, with the likelihood of El Niño forming at all estimated around 62% at that time. Since then, forecast confidence has increased considerably as the event has developed and additional data has come in — meteorologist Mauricio Saldívar of Meteored has noted that forecasts have become notably more precise since passing what's known as the spring predictability barrier in May and June, a period when El Niño forecasts are traditionally less reliable.
Why 2027 Could Break Temperature Records
El Niño events work by releasing large amounts of heat stored in the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, temporarily raising global average surface temperatures on top of the underlying warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Because El Niño's peak atmospheric temperature effects typically lag the oceanic peak by several months, the years immediately following a strong El Niño's oceanic peak often see the highest recorded global temperatures — which is why researchers are specifically flagging 2027, not just 2026, as the year most likely to set a new record.
Crucially, this El Niño is developing on top of an already unusually warm baseline. Global temperatures are already running more than 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, meaning a strong El Niño layered on top of that baseline pushes the climate system into territory with no direct modern precedent. Climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain of the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources has stated that a strong or very strong El Niño has never previously occurred amid pre-existing global conditions this warm, making unprecedented global impacts by late 2026 into 2027 — in terms of flooding, drought, and wildfire extremes — plausible rather than merely speculative.
The Economic Cost of a Super El Niño
The economic stakes are substantial. Researcher Jeffrey Mankin and colleagues have previously estimated that weather changes attributed to the strong 1997-98 El Niño shrank global economic growth by roughly $5.7 trillion in the years that followed. Applying similar reasoning to the current forecasts, Mankin has suggested the 2026 event could potentially cause approximately $10 trillion in economic losses by 2032, though such long-range economic projections carry significant uncertainty given the unprecedented nature of the event's projected strength.
Beyond broad economic growth impacts, the pattern of heatwaves, droughts, flooding, and wildfires associated with El Niño carries direct consequences for food security specifically. The FAO and World Food Programme have warned the event could push as many as 36 million people into hunger, and have launched a first-of-its-kind joint appeal, reportedly around $202 million, aimed at protecting millions of vulnerable people across affected regions ahead of the event's peak.
Who Will Be Affected Most
El Niño's global weather effects vary significantly by region, generally following the pattern's well-established physical logic even at unusually high intensity. Typical El Niño impacts include heavier rainfall and flood risk across parts of the southern United States, drought conditions across parts of Southeast Asia and Australia, and disrupted rainfall patterns across East Africa and the Amazon. A December 2025 study published in Nature Communications, led by Professor Jong-Seong Kug of Seoul National University, specifically identified the central North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, East Africa, the Amazon, central Australia, and the Maritime Continent around Indonesia as regions most likely to experience lasting climate effects from an event of this intensity.
What Happens After the El Niño Fades
Perhaps the most significant long-term finding from recent research is that a super El Niño's effects may not simply reverse once Pacific Ocean temperatures cool back down. The Nature Communications study analyzing the three prior recorded super El Niño events found that events of this intensity significantly increase the likelihood of what researchers call "climate regime shifts" — abrupt, persistent transitions in temperature, sea surface conditions, and soil moisture patterns that can persist for years, or even decades, after the El Niño event itself has technically ended. Under current global warming conditions, the study found this regime-shift effect would likely be considerably amplified compared to prior super El Niño events.
El Niño vs. Climate Change: Untangling the Two
It's worth being precise about the relationship between El Niño and long-term climate change, since the two are often conflated in casual discussion. El Niño is a natural, cyclical climate pattern driven by ocean temperature and wind changes in the Pacific, occurring periodically regardless of human-caused warming. Climate change, driven by greenhouse gas emissions, is a separate, longer-term warming trend layered underneath these natural cycles. What makes the 2026 event particularly consequential is the combination of the two: a naturally occurring strong El Niño temporarily boosting temperatures on top of an already elevated baseline caused by decades of human-driven warming — which is precisely why researchers expect the resulting temperature peak to be unprecedented rather than simply a repeat of prior El Niño years.
How This Compares to Past El Niño Events
| El Niño Event | Approximate Peak Temperature Anomaly | Notable Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1997-98 | ~2.4°C to 2.75°C | An estimated $5.7 trillion global economic growth loss |
| 2015-16 | Strong, comparable range | Major global coral bleaching event, extreme regional droughts |
| 2023-24 | Strong | Contributed to record global temperatures at the time |
| 2026 (projected) | ~3.6°C | Projected to be the strongest event in at least 150 years, "outside the historical envelope" |
Case Studies: The 1997-98 Super El Niño
The 1997-98 El Niño remains one of the most studied climate events in modern history, having caused widespread flooding, drought, and economic disruption across multiple continents, along with the estimated $5.7 trillion economic growth impact researchers have since attributed to the associated weather changes. Because the 2026 event's models project temperature anomalies well beyond what was observed in 1997-98, researchers are explicit that historical analogues from that event, while useful as a general reference point, likely understate the potential scale of regional impacts this time around.
Common Misconceptions About El Niño
- "El Niño and climate change are the same thing." They're distinct phenomena — El Niño is a natural, cyclical ocean-atmosphere pattern, while climate change is a longer-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions. The two combine, but aren't interchangeable.
- "If El Niño is natural, this event isn't really about climate change." The event's projected record strength is specifically tied to how it's developing on top of an unusually warm existing climate baseline, making the interaction between the two central to why researchers are so concerned.
- "The impacts will end as soon as El Niño fades." Recent research specifically found that super El Niño events can trigger lasting climate regime shifts persisting well beyond the event's technical end.
- "This is definitely going to happen exactly as forecast." While confidence has increased significantly as the event has developed, climate forecasts of this kind still carry genuine uncertainty, and researchers continue to update projections as new data arrives.
What to Watch For in the Coming Months
NOAA's next official ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, scheduled for August 13, will offer an updated, more precise picture of the event's trajectory as it continues developing toward its expected October–December 2026 peak. Readers interested in tracking the event's development should watch for updates from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and the World Meteorological Organization, both of which issue regular, official ENSO status updates.
FAQs
1. Is the 2026 El Niño really the largest in 150 years?
According to researchers speaking at a recent press briefing, current forecasts suggest it's on track to be the largest El Niño event in at least 150 years, though the event is still developing and forecasts continue to be refined.
2. When will the 2026 El Niño peak?
The event is expected to peak during the October–December 2026 period, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
3. Will 2027 be the hottest year on record?
Researchers say it's likely, given the combination of El Niño's heat release and the existing global warming baseline, though final confirmation will depend on how the event actually develops.
4. Could 2026 also be a record hot year?
There's a fair chance, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, that the event could boost 2026 temperatures enough to make it a record hot year as well, even ahead of 2027's more likely record.
5. How much could the 2026 El Niño cost economically?
Based on comparisons to the 1997-98 event's estimated $5.7 trillion economic growth impact, researcher Jeffrey Mankin has suggested the current event could cause up to approximately $10 trillion in losses by 2032, though this projection carries significant uncertainty.
6. What regions will be most affected?
Research points to the central North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, East Africa, the Amazon, central Australia, and the Maritime Continent around Indonesia as likely to see the most significant and lasting effects.
7. Do El Niño effects end once the event fades?
Not necessarily — recent research found that events of this intensity can trigger climate regime shifts that persist for years or decades after the El Niño itself technically ends.
8. Is El Niño caused by climate change?
No, El Niño is a natural, cyclical climate pattern. However, its interaction with existing climate change-driven warming is what makes the 2026 event's projected impacts so significant.
9. How does this El Niño compare to the 1997-98 and 2015-16 events?
Current models project peak temperature anomalies around 3.6°C, notably higher than the roughly 2.4°C to 2.75°C range observed during those prior major El Niño events.
10. Could the 2026 El Niño cause food shortages?
The FAO and World Food Programme have warned it could push as many as 36 million people into hunger, prompting a joint appeal aimed at protecting vulnerable populations across affected regions.
Conclusion
The 2026 El Niño represents something genuinely unusual in the historical record: a naturally occurring climate pattern developing not just at record projected strength, but on top of an already unprecedented global warming baseline. That combination is why researchers are treating this event with a level of concern that goes beyond typical El Niño coverage — the historical playbook for understanding its impacts may simply not fully apply this time. With NOAA's next official forecast update due August 13 and the event's peak still months away, the coming months will offer a clearer picture of just how significant this "outside the historical envelope" event ultimately becomes.
Key Takeaways
- Researchers say the 2026 El Niño is on track to be the largest event recorded in at least 150 years.
- Current models project peak temperature anomalies around 3.6°C, well beyond the roughly 2.4°C to 2.75°C range of prior major El Niño events.
- Researchers expect the event to make 2027 the hottest year on record, with a fair chance 2026 itself could also be record-breaking.
- Economic impacts could reach an estimated $10 trillion by 2032, based on comparisons to the 1997-98 super El Niño's $5.7 trillion impact.
- Research suggests the event's effects on climate patterns could persist for years after it technically ends, through a phenomenon researchers call climate regime shifts.
