The highly anticipated Northeast monsoon has officially arrived in Kerala, bringing with it widespread heavy rainfall, particularly impacting the southern and central regions of the state. This seasonal shift began on Thursday, October 16, 2025.
A recent weather bulletin from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon across India on the same day. Concurrently, the Northeast monsoon’s rainfall activity has commenced over various parts of South India, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, and the Kerala-Mahe region.
The monsoon’s onset is expected to be robust, driven by multiple weather systems currently active in the Bay of Bengal. An upper-air cyclonic circulation is positioned over the Comorin area and its vicinity, extending to mid-tropospheric levels. Additionally, the presence of easterly and northeasterly winds at lower tropospheric levels over southern peninsular India and the southern and adjoining central Bay of Bengal is further intensifying the rain activity.
Consequently, fairly widespread rainfall has already been recorded across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and adjacent areas of south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala over the past 24 hours.
Low-Pressure Area Forms
Looking ahead, a low-pressure area is projected to form over the Bay of Bengal by October 19. This developing system is expected to significantly enhance rainfall across Kerala.
Orange Alert Issued for Districts
In response to the intensified weather, an orange alert has been declared for Kottayam and Idukki districts for Thursday, indicating the likelihood of very heavy rainfall. Furthermore, seven other districts—Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Thrissur, and Malappuram—are under a yellow alert, warning of heavy rains over the next 24 hours.
Historically, Kerala receives an average of 492 mm of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon period. The previous year saw a near-normal season, with 487.2 mm of rain.