The tragic Karur stampede on September 27, which claimed 41 lives during a Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) rally, may have been significantly exacerbated by extreme heat stress. This is the key finding of an analysis conducted by Poovulagin Nanbargal, a Chennai-based environmental collective. Researchers Anu Mani, Priya Suresh, and Nigazh led the study, which utilized the Punal framework and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) to assess the environmental conditions.
The study posits that an oppressive combination of intense heat, dangerously high crowd density, and inadequate event planning created a perfect storm for mass thermophysiological stress. While independent verification of these specific claims is still pending, the implications are profound.
The rally, held on Velusamypuram Road in Karur, suffered a nearly seven-hour delay, forcing thousands of attendees to endure direct sunlight for over six hours. The chosen venue, a narrow road flanked by buildings, severely restricted natural airflow. Reports indicate that crowd density surpassed four persons per square meter, exceeding safe limits. By mid-afternoon, UTCI readings were estimated to have soared above 40°C – a critical threshold where fainting and collapse become highly probable, compared to the 38°C benchmark.
Further analysis by the researchers suggested that the heat generated by the tightly packed crowd was equivalent to the solar energy striking the same ground area, intensifying the overall heat accumulation. Disturbingly, instances of people fainting were reported even before the main event commenced, signaling that the crowd was already under immense thermal strain.
This isn’t an isolated incident. The same collective has previously documented similar heat-stress-related events at other TVK political rallies, including those in Vikravandi in 2024 and Madurai in 2025, underscoring a recurring pattern of risk.
In response to these findings and the ongoing threat, the collective has put forth several recommendations for authorities. These include restricting outdoor rallies between February and October, ensuring readily available shaded areas and ample drinking water, integrating UTCI-based heat alerts into event planning, and officially recognizing extreme heat as a notified disaster under the Disaster Management Act.
It’s worth noting that Tamil Nadu has already acknowledged heat stress as a state disaster and has established guidelines for mitigation. These measures include setting up drinking water kiosks, rescheduling outdoor work, providing ex-gratia payments to victims’ families, and prioritizing urban planning initiatives to increase green spaces and implement cool roof technologies. These proactive steps are vital, especially in light of a recent analysis by the Tamil Nadu State Planning Commission, which highlighted that escalating temperatures—driven by urban expansion, deforestation, and altered land use—are placing individuals, ecosystems, and infrastructure at increasing risk.