Punjab’s battle against farm fires presents a perplexing paradox: while official incident counts plummeted by a remarkable 70% in 2024 compared to the previous year, the actual land area charred by these fires paradoxically grew. This stark contradiction immediately raises red flags about the reliability of the reported data.
According to aggregated satellite data from the Punjab Remote Sensing Centre (PRSC) and the Punjab Pollution Control Board (PPCB), farm fire incidents seemingly dropped from 36,663 in 2023 to just 10,909 in 2024 – a substantial 70% reduction. Yet, the true ‘burnt area’ from paddy residue tells a different story. It actually increased slightly, from 19.14 lakh hectares in 2023 to 19.17 lakh hectares in 2024, as detailed in their report, ‘Comparison of district-wise area classified under residue burning (paddy) for year 2023 and 2024,’ covering September 15 to November 30. (Also see: Punjab farmer bodies criticize actions against cultivators for stubble burning.)
The total area under paddy cultivation also saw a slight rise, from 30.02 lakh hectares in 2023 to 31 lakh hectares in 2024.
Former officials and environmental experts emphasize that ‘burnt area’ figures offer a more accurate representation of the stubble burning problem. The 2024 data strongly hints at potential under-reporting of fire incidents. Sources suggest that farmers, perhaps aware of satellite overpass timings, might be deliberately burning stubble in periods designed to evade detection. While fire incidents are logged daily, the burnt area is assessed on a weekly basis, creating a loophole that could be exploited.
The report further highlighted geographical variations, with Pathankot and Rupnagar districts showing the lowest burnt areas, while Patiala and Sangrur districts reported the highest.
A former senior official from the PPCB, speaking anonymously, expressed grave concerns. ‘Farm fire incidents in Punjab and other states are typically recorded by satellites using thermal imaging, which detects temperature differences at specific morning and afternoon timings. It seems that in 2024, farmers may have strategically burned paddy stubble during periods when satellite surveillance was absent. If fire incidents genuinely decreased, the burnt area should logically have followed suit. This disparity certainly provokes serious questions,’ the official stated. (For related perspectives, read: Editorial: A Comprehensive Strategy for North India’s Stubble Burning Challenge.)
Gurvinder Singh, former Director of the Punjab Agriculture Department, reiterated these worries. He noted, ‘The rise in the ‘burnt area’ of paddy residue, which offers a more accurate reflection of farm fires, undeniably casts doubt on the authenticity of the 2024 incident figures. This could be due to several factors, as PRSC data relies on satellites that farmers can seemingly bypass. It’s undeniable that many farmers are aware of satellite schedules and could have ‘evaded’ detection last year. We’ve even seen cases where farmers burn stubble and then quickly cultivate and water their fields to erase evidence. The technology must be advanced to eliminate such data ambiguities.’
Environmental activist Jaskirat Singh, a prominent voice in Punjab, asserted that the reported numbers don’t align with the on-ground situation. ‘Both the Central and State governments boast of a significant drop in farm fire incidents, attributing it to various measures like subsidized crop residue management machinery. However, the ground reality tells a different tale,’ Singh remarked. ‘The increasing ‘burnt area’ data exposes the truth: little has genuinely changed. Instead of manipulating statistics and engaging in political theatrics, governments should devise a robust plan to assist farmers in tackling stubble burning. They should actively embrace and support solutions proposed by farmers and their unions to truly address this persistent problem.’
A high-ranking PPCB official, who preferred to remain unnamed, suggested to The Hindu that the increase in burnt area might stem from a technical glitch. ‘We have extensively discussed the surge in burnt area and believe it could be a technical problem,’ the officer explained. ‘Sometimes, remote sensing data registers multiple fire incidents from a single location. For instance, in Patiala this year, PRSC identified three distinct farm fires on a two-acre farm. However, our physical verification confirmed only one incident, a single burnt patch owned by the same individual. Thus, while we count it as one incident, the ‘burnt area’ calculation would encompass the entire affected patch.’
Every autumn, the widespread practice of burning paddy stubble significantly exacerbates air pollution across northern India, including the national capital, New Delhi. Both central and state administrations have consistently asserted a reduction in these fires, crediting measures like rigorous enforcement of anti-stubble burning regulations and improved access to crop residue management machinery.
With paddy harvesting now in full swing in Punjab, stubble-burning incidents have unfortunately already begun. Government data indicates that the state recorded 95 such incidents between September 15 and October 3 this year.