Just this month, a dramatic blizzard, intense snowfall, and lightning transformed the Tibetan side of Mount Everest into a dangerous, almost dystopian landscape. Over a thousand trekkers found themselves stranded, relying on local villagers to brave knee-deep snow for their rescue. Simultaneously, severe rains and snow brought devastating floods and landslides to other Himalayan regions, including Nepal and Darjeeling, claiming many lives.
These recent events are merely a few examples in a rapidly growing list of catastrophes plaguing the Himalayas. A 2024 report by Down To Earth (DTE) reveals a stark reality: out of 687 disasters recorded in India between 1900 and 2022, a staggering 240 occurred in the Himalayan range. These incidents encompass everything from glacial lake outbursts and landslides to floods, wildfires, and earthquakes. Remarkably, between 1902 and 1962, the region saw only five such disasters.
The Alarming Scarcity of Early Warning Systems
The DTE report further highlights a disturbing trend: a consistent decade-on-decade escalation in disaster frequency. From just 11 incidents between 1963-1972 and 13 from 1973-1982, the numbers soared to an unprecedented 68 disasters in the last decade (2013-2022) alone, constituting 44% of all reported disasters in India. Moreover, NASA’s landslide data indicates that the Himalayas endured a staggering 1,121 landslide events between 2007 and 2017.
“I’ve trekked the Himalayas about 20 times, but I’ve never witnessed such extreme weather,” remarked 27-year-old seasoned hiker Dong Shuchang to the BBC. This observation is echoed by scientific findings: climate change is rendering this already seismically active mountain range increasingly volatile. A Springer Nature paper published last year indicated that the Himalayan region is warming at an accelerated rate, between 0.15ºC and 0.60ºC per decade, significantly faster than the global average.
Given this grim reality, it begs the question: why does one of the world’s most perilous regions, prone to such frequent and deadly disasters, possess such a woefully inadequate number of Early Warning Systems (EWS)? These systems are a proven, practical tool for predicting events and dramatically improving the chances of saving lives.
Leveraging AI for Enhanced Safety
With numerous peer-reviewed studies forecasting an intensifying crisis in the Himalayas, there’s an undeniable and urgent demand for robust EWS capable of predicting imminent earthquakes, landslides, snowstorms, glacial lake outburst floods, and extreme temperatures across this vast, volatile mountain range that spans 12 Indian States and Union Territories. Glaciologist Argha Banerjee, who studies Himalayan glaciers at IISER Pune, emphasized the monumental scale of the challenge: “We desperately need to install many more EWS, ideally one in every valley across the entire Himalayan arc, especially considering the occurrence of trans-boundary floods.” He pointed out a significant gap: “Currently, we lack indigenous, low-cost EWS that are truly weather-proof, simple for local communities to install and operate, can integrate multiple input parameters (both on-site and remote), and crucially, transmit live data, even in remote valleys beyond mobile network coverage.”
Dr. Banerjee firmly believes that a fully functional early warning system could unequivocally save lives. However, monitoring this immense 2,400 km range presents substantial hurdles. Drones, for instance, are limited by scale, effective primarily for localized studies, and notoriously difficult to operate in the glaciated, windy, and rugged terrain of the Himalayas. Yet, he sees immense potential in Artificial Intelligence (AI) models to transform raw live data into reliable warnings. While satellite technology offers some promise, its high cost and scalability issues for widespread implementation remain concerns, even though rapid data collection from satellites is feasible. Crucially, Dr. Banerjee stressed the importance of empowering local communities: “It is vital to involve and train local people not only to maintain and operate these EWS but also to understand and respond effectively to the warnings they provide.”
The Power of Hazard Mapping
Inspiring examples exist of Himalayan disasters successfully averted. A recent glacier collapse and debris flow near Blatten village in the Swiss Alps, for instance, was prevented from escalating into a major humanitarian crisis thanks to a vigilant shepherd who alerted the downstream community, saving hundreds of lives. Similarly, in 2022, researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences detailed their innovative EWS development for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) at Cirenmaco, a high-risk glacial lake in the central Himalayas, utilizing an unmanned boat.
The authors, in their paper published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, affirm that EWS are instrumental in preventing loss of life and mitigating the economic and societal fallout of disasters. Their system involved continuously monitoring changes in lake levels, end-moraine displacement, ice collapse, and downstream runoff. Data was then transmitted to a central hub via satellites and mobile networks. A crucial component was the creation of a detailed hazard map, illustrating flood depth and velocity, categorized into four intensity levels. The paper concludes that “in the future, more refined and accurate simulation results can be used to further enhance this hazard map, which will be vital for pinpointing safe evacuation zones in downstream areas, guiding the construction of GLOF prevention and mitigation infrastructure, and informing local economic development strategies.”
A Matter of National Urgency, Not a Low Priority
Dr. Vinod Kumar Gaur, a distinguished Bengaluru-based seismologist and former director of the National Geophysical Research Institute, is actively engaged in deploying three EWS, with a third system for cloudbursts still in its nascent stages. One notable project, recently funded by the environment ministry, aims to deliver operational, highly localized hailstorm alerts (within a few hundred meters) to apple orchard managers in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
Dr. Gaur explained that these advanced systems integrate local data with AI-powered predictions and a meticulously downscaled atmospheric model, enabling them to accurately capture localized land surface and hydrometeorological processes. The urgency cannot be overstated: a study in the journal Climate Change last year warned that a mere 3ºC increase in global warming could subject 90% of the Himalayas to droughts lasting over a year. Further evidence of this impending crisis comes from a recent UN report, which highlights an ‘altitude squeeze’ on wildlife, forcing species like musk deer and snow trout to seek refuge at ever higher elevations as the mountains warm.
Dr. Banerjee concluded with a powerful call to action: Himalayan catastrophes are not receiving the urgent attention they warrant from scientists, engineers, funding bodies, industry, or central and local policymakers. “The people of the Himalayas desperately need these systems, and it is an urgent necessity. This absolutely must become a national priority.”