While the upcoming by-election in Odisha’s Nuapada Assembly constituency won’t immediately threaten the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government’s stability, its results will serve as a crucial test of leadership for the BJP itself, along with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Congress. This bypoll was triggered by the passing of former minister Rajendra Dholakia, setting the stage for a significant political contest.
Nuapada, a constituency sharing a border with Chhattisgarh, was secured by the BJD in the 2024 elections. Historically, this seat has seen varied representation: the late Dholakia won it three times as a BJD legislator and once as an Independent since 2000, while former State BJP president Basant Panda also claimed victory twice.
The late minister’s strong connection with the voters was significantly amplified by the immense popularity of BJD supremo and former Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, who enjoyed an unparalleled 24-year streak of electoral success in the state. During his long tenure, merely securing a BJD ticket often felt like a guaranteed win before a single vote was cast.
However, the political landscape shifted dramatically after 2024. The BJP’s unexpected landslide victory brought them to power independently in Odisha for the very first time, completely transforming the political realities. Ironically, the BJP, which previously criticized the BJD for leveraging state resources, money, and power to secure victories, now faces the same scrutiny as the incumbent party.
Chief Minister Mohan Majhi’s rise to power, surpassing senior leaders like Union Ministers Dharmendra Pradhan and Jual Oram, places a direct burden on him to deliver tangible results. Having been in office for 15 months, Mr. Majhi has already laid out his governmental vision and is actively working to unite his party. A win in Nuapada would serve as a powerful endorsement of his administrative approach and solidifies his standing as a leader.
Meanwhile, for Mr. Patnaik, this by-election presents a distinct and unfamiliar challenge. Apart from his early years in opposition, he has consistently campaigned from a position of authority, where state machinery, including the police and local administration, often provided a subtle, yet significant, advantage to the ruling party. Now, stripped of the benefits of incumbency, his long-standing popularity will undergo its most rigorous examination.
Beyond the primary contenders, the Congress also views this bypoll as immensely important. Nuapada falls within the Kalahandi Lok Sabha constituency, an area carefully cultivated by Bhakta Charan Das, the current president of the Odisha Pradesh Congress Committee (OPCC). As this marks the first election since his appointment as state party chief, the results will heavily influence perceptions of his leadership and the party’s continued relevance in Odisha’s evolving political climate. A weak showing could trigger significant doubts.
Ultimately, for all three influential leaders – Chief Minister Majhi, Mr. Patnaik, and Mr. Das – the Nuapada by-election is a high-stakes affair. A victory for the BJD could help them recover their recent losses, while a BJP win would undeniably strengthen Chief Minister Majhi’s nascent leadership. Should the Congress manage an unexpected triumph, it could significantly boost the morale of its members and demonstrate a renewed determination to regain its foothold in Odisha politics.