As October unfolds, India’s weather patterns are showing a subtle shift. While the early part of the month saw below-average maximum temperatures, particularly in northern regions, recent data suggests a warming trend. For context, up until the first week of October, the nation’s average maximum temperature placed the month on track to be one of the coolest Octobers recorded since 1951. However, an analysis of India Meteorological Department (IMD) data indicates that this cool spell is beginning to ease in many parts of northern India. This change is attributed to the dissipation of weather systems that were previously contributing to the cooler temperatures.
Despite this warming, October, on average, is still ranked as the sixth coolest month since 1951 based on maximum temperatures. The shift is becoming more noticeable when comparing current daily temperatures to the 1981-2010 baseline, which the IMD uses as a normal. India’s average maximum temperature dipped significantly below normal until October 6th before starting a gradual recovery. Notably, October 16th marked the first day this month where temperatures were marginally above the usual.
Geographically, the primary drivers of these national trends in early October were the northern and western parts of India, though central and eastern regions also experienced cooler-than-normal conditions. The situation improved significantly by the week ending October 16th, bringing the national average closer to typical levels. This increase in daytime temperatures has been substantial enough to make the week of October 10th-16th warmer than the October 1st-9th period in many areas, a development not typically expected as winter approaches.
Rainfall patterns also play a role in these temperature fluctuations. For instance, the week ending October 17th saw little to no rainfall across most of northern India. This reduction in rainy days, compared to the first ten days of the month, likely contributed to higher daytime temperatures by allowing more sunlight to reach the surface. However, winds originating from the hilly regions, which brought chill in early October due to snowfall, continue to influence northern India, keeping the temperatures somewhat cooler than expected despite the general warming trend. The accumulation of snow pack in the northern hill states, while decreasing slightly, still has a moderating effect on the local climate.