While India as a whole celebrated an above-average southwest monsoon, closing the four-month season with 108% of its long-term average rainfall, the state of Kerala experienced a noticeable deficit, receiving 13% less rain than usual.
Despite the overall shortfall, Kerala’s monthly rainfall distribution largely followed historical patterns this year. June and July saw the heaviest downpours of the southwest monsoon, with rainfall gradually decreasing through August and September, aligning with typical trends.
Notably, Kerala experienced fewer intense rainfall events this season. The state recorded only three days of ‘extremely heavy’ rainfall (over 21 cm in 24 hours), 16 days of ‘very heavy’ rainfall (11–20 cm), and 37 days of ‘heavy’ rainfall (7–11 cm).
To put this in perspective, the devastating flood year of 2018 saw a stark contrast, with 33 days of extreme rainfall, 163 days of very heavy rainfall, and 607 days of heavy rainfall. Since 2020, Kerala has observed a steady decline in such severe weather incidents.
With the southwest monsoon behind them, the people of Kerala are now looking to the upcoming northeast monsoon season, which typically runs from mid-October to the end of December, with hopes that it will bring enough rain to compensate for the recent deficit.
Adding to these hopes, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a long-range forecast predicting above-normal rainfall for Kerala during this crucial northeast monsoon period.
While the monsoon’s withdrawal from northwest India occurred three days earlier than anticipated, and on schedule in several other states, its departure elsewhere is expected to be delayed slightly due to two active weather systems forming over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
One of these systems, developing in the Bay of Bengal, is projected to strengthen into a depression and make landfall along the south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts around October 3. Experts believe this particular system will have minimal direct influence on Kerala’s weather.
Nonetheless, the presence of these weather systems could affect the timing of the northeast monsoon’s arrival. Historically, based on data from 1901-2021, the northeast monsoon typically commences in Kerala around October 19, with a normal onset period falling between October 11 and 27.