Kerala is bracing for a significant increase in rainfall towards the end of the month, primarily due to a developing low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal. While a current low-pressure system near Gangetic West Bengal, northern Odisha, and the northwest Bay of Bengal isn’t significantly impacting Kerala’s monsoon right now, a new, more influential low-pressure area is anticipated to develop over the east-central and northern Bay of Bengal around September 25th.
This upcoming system is projected to move west-northwest, strengthening into a depression off the coasts of South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh by September 26th, and is expected to make landfall there around September 27th. Its movement will draw considerable moisture from the ocean, leading to isolated but heavy downpours across various parts of Kerala.
In response to these forecasts, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already issued a yellow alert for five districts, effective from Thursday. Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, and Thrissur are under this yellow alert, indicating a likelihood of moderate to heavy rainfall (between 64.5 mm and 115.5 mm) within a 24-hour period. Similar yellow alerts were extended to six districts in the central and southern parts of the state for Friday, and five districts in North Kerala for Saturday.
Forecasters suggest this could be the final significant weather system impacting Kerala during the current four-month southwest monsoon season, which concludes on September 30th.