New Delhi: A recent analysis suggests that the world could potentially avoid an average of 57 excessively hot days each year if nations successfully implement their emission-cutting commitments outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement, thereby limiting global warming to 2.6°C by the end of this century.
The comprehensive report, titled “Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat,” was a collaborative effort by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution. It highlights the significant role of the Paris Agreement in steering the planet towards a more stable climate.
However, the researchers issued a cautionary note, emphasizing that even a 2.6°C rise in global temperature would still expose future generations to dangerous heat levels, leading to severe health consequences and exacerbating existing inequalities. In a scenario where warming reaches 2.6°C, countries would likely experience approximately 57 more hot days annually compared to current conditions. This figure is notably lower than the 114 additional hot days predicted in a 4°C warming scenario, which assumes no significant climate action.
The analysis defines “hot days” as those with temperatures exceeding 90% of the 1991-2020 observed temperatures for a specific location. For India, adhering to the 2.6°C target under existing emission plans could mean about 30 fewer hot days annually compared to a ‘no action’ scenario. Other regions would also see significant reductions, with Kenya potentially experiencing 82 fewer hot days, Mexico 77, Brazil 69, Egypt 36, Australia 34, the US 30, the UK 29, China 29, and Spain 27.
Illustrating the impact, the report referenced the severe heatwave experienced in India and Pakistan in the spring of 2022. Under the current emission reduction plans (leading to 2.6°C warming), such events would be approximately 1.4°C hotter and occur seven times more frequently. In a 4°C warming scenario without climate action, a heatwave similar to the 2022 event could become a reality every two years, being about 14 times more likely and 3.3°C hotter than present-day temperatures.
The authors pointed out that despite the increasing risks, many of India’s 37 heat action plans adopt a simplified approach to heatwaves, often overlooking the needs of vulnerable populations and inadequately addressing systemic changes, equity, and social protection measures.
Looking at the broader trend, almost every country has witnessed an increase in the number of hot days when comparing the last decade (2015-2024) to the decade preceding the Paris Agreement (2005-2014). On average, countries globally have experienced 11 more hot days per year in the recent decade.
Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, commented that while the world is on track to surpass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, the goal of keeping warming well below 2°C remains crucial. “Cutting emissions alone won’t be enough,” Kimutai stated. “We also need to triple our adaptation efforts to protect lives and livelihoods.”
Friederike Otto, a Professor in Climate Science at the same centre, emphasized the Paris Agreement’s importance as a binding framework to mitigate the most severe climate change impacts. “Political leaders need to take the reason for the Paris Agreement much more seriously,” Otto remarked. “It is about protecting our human rights. Every fraction of a degree of warming — whether it is 1.4, 1.5, or 1.7°C — will mean the difference between safety and suffering for millions of people.”
The report also highlighted the escalating health risks associated with climate change. Heat-related deaths among individuals over 65 have surged by 167% since the 1990s, and exposure to extreme weather events continues to rise. In Europe alone, an estimated 16,600 lives were lost in cities during the summer of 2025 due to increased temperatures. Heatwaves in Africa remain a critical but often overlooked threat, while climate-sensitive diseases are spreading, contributing to growing food insecurity for hundreds of millions worldwide.