The JDU and BJP have officially entered the 2025 Bihar assembly elections as equal partners, a significant development largely attributed to the diverging performance trajectories of the two parties over the last four elections. While the BJP has seen a steady rise in its strike rate (seats won versus seats contested), the JDU’s strike rate has seen a noticeable decline.
This new arrangement sees both the JDU and BJP contesting 101 seats each out of the 243 assembly segments in Bihar. The remaining seats will be allocated to other alliance partners. This represents a reduction in seats for both parties, with the JDU contesting 115 seats in the previous election and the BJP 110. The entry of Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV), which will contest 29 seats, also played a role in shaping this seat-sharing formula.
The significance of these equal seat allocations extends beyond mere numbers, reflecting a shift in the political dynamics within Bihar. Despite Nitish Kumar’s long tenure as Chief Minister, his party, the JDU, has not consistently translated his leadership strength into electoral success.
A closer look at past election results highlights this trend. In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, the BJP contested 110 seats and secured 74 wins, a respectable strike rate of 68%. This was a rebound for the BJP, especially compared to the 2015 elections when they contested 157 seats as part of a diminished NDA, winning only about 34% of them.
In 2015, the JDU, allied with the RJD and Congress, had a strong showing, winning 71 out of 101 seats it contested, a strike rate of 70%. However, by 2020, the JDU’s vote share in contested seats dropped below 33% from 41% in 2015, and its strike rate plummeted to below 38% – roughly half of its 2015 performance.
While the 2015 elections saw the JDU and BJP in separate camps, a comparison of their performance within the NDA framework, particularly between 2010 and 2020, reveals the shift. In 2010, the JDU was the senior partner, winning 115 out of 141 seats (82% strike rate), while the BJP won 91 out of 102 seats (89% strike rate).
By 2020, the roles had subtly shifted. The BJP maintained a stronger strike rate (68% from 110 seats) compared to the JDU’s 43 wins out of 115 seats (under 38% strike rate). Although Nitish Kumar remained Chief Minister, with the BJP leadership respecting his seniority and considering his past political maneuvers, the JDU’s electoral standing has clearly diminished relative to the BJP.
Looking ahead to the current elections, there is speculation about Nitish Kumar potentially making way for a younger leader from the BJP, should the NDA secure a victory. However, the impact of strike rates on future leadership decisions remains to be seen, as was evident in the 2020 outcome.