Bihar is gearing up for its Assembly elections, a high-stakes contest scheduled in two phases on November 6 and 11, with results to be announced on November 14. This election promises to be a pivotal moment for all political factions involved.
A close examination of Bihar’s political landscape reveals that every major party entering the fray is contending with a unique set of internal and external challenges.
For the past two decades, ever since Chief Minister Nitish Kumar rose to power, Bihar’s traditional caste dynamics have largely remained unchanged. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) typically garners support from upper castes, while non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Mahadalits, and a segment of Pasmanda (lower caste) Muslims align with Mr. Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). Together, these groups form the core of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
On the other side, a significant portion of Muslim voters and the influential Yadav community largely support the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The Congress and CPI (ML) also maintain limited strongholds of influence. These parties collectively form the INDIA bloc.
Between these major alliances are various smaller parties. The Lok Janshakti Party, Hindustan Awaam Morcha, and Rashtriya Lok Manch are aligned with the NDA, while other caste-based parties, such as the Vikassheel Insaan Party, are currently negotiating seat-sharing arrangements with the INDIA bloc.
The Nitish Factor
Throughout this complex political landscape, Mr. Kumar has been a consistent figure, often shifting allegiances between the two major blocs, a strategy that has allowed him to retain the Chief Minister’s post regardless of the ruling coalition.
Yet, elections always reveal the underlying struggles and contradictions within alliances and parties, and this Bihar election is proving to be no exception.
A major concern for the NDA is Mr. Kumar’s health and the uncertainty surrounding his ability to serve a full term as Chief Minister should their alliance secure a victory. This situation has cast doubts over the JD(U)’s leadership and fueled speculation about his potential successor.
The BJP in Bihar faces a significant leadership void following the passing of its prominent state leader, Sushil Kumar Modi, impacting its organizational strength. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains a crucial national figure, the state unit struggles with a lack of comparable local leadership; for instance, Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary’s past affiliation with the RJD highlights the internal challenges to cohesion. As the incumbent alliance, the NDA is heavily relying on the women’s vote, a demographic instrumental in their 2020 victory.
To attract this key demographic, the NDA has launched various initiatives, including income support schemes like the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, which provides ₹10,000 to women beneficiaries for entrepreneurial ventures. Additionally, pay increases for local welfare workers and reservations for women in government jobs are designed to cultivate a ‘casteless’ base of women beneficiaries, or ‘labarthi’ voters.
The Shadow of ‘Jungle Raj’
While the NDA contends with internal challenges and the anti-incumbency sentiment after nearly two decades in power, the RJD faces two core issues. Firstly, the enduring memory of ‘jungle raj’—a period of severe governance deficit under previous RJD rule—continues to haunt voters, a sentiment frequently amplified by the NDA’s campaigns. Secondly, despite its strong Muslim-Yadav support base, the RJD has struggled to secure a clear majority for government formation in the last two decades.
(An embedded video discussing election dynamics was included here.)
To counter these challenges, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has promised one job per household, framing it as an initiative for economic justice within the broader social justice framework. If the RJD fails to win power outright for the fifth consecutive election, it could spark significant questions about the party’s future viability.
The Congress, which has seen its influence wane since the late 1980s, over-performed in the 2020 elections by contesting 70 seats but only securing 19. In this upcoming election, the party is again aiming for a resurgence, proposing a 10-point program specifically for EBCs, which includes promises of additional reservations and legislation akin to the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities Act.
Amidst this established political order, a new challenger has emerged: the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), led by former poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, who could prove to be a significant ‘X factor.’ After three years of extensive statewide tours, Kishor launched his party with a vision for ‘Development 2.0.’ He aims to steer Bihar away from the governance issues of the 1990s and beyond Mr. Kumar’s welfare-focused governance of the last two decades, towards a concentrated effort to curb out-migration and create jobs.
Both the NDA and INDIA blocs view the JSP with caution, uncertain whether Kishor’s party will draw votes away from the NDA, potentially benefiting the INDIA bloc, or vice versa. While no one anticipates him to secure an outright victory in his first election, Mr. Kishor is widely expected to significantly disrupt the political status quo that has persisted for the last two decades.
Bihar’s political discourse has historically prioritized social justice, with Mr. Kumar notably reshaping Mandal politics to include gender justice and extend benefits to EBCs within the broader OBC framework. The upcoming elections will determine whether the state’s social justice narrative is poised for its next evolution.