Kerala experienced moderately heavy rainfall on Thursday, September 25, influenced by a developing weather system in the Bay of Bengal. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports an upper air cyclonic circulation currently present over the east-central and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal. This system is anticipated to move gradually westward and is very likely to intensify into a low-pressure area over the north and central Bay of Bengal within the next 12 hours.
Further predictions suggest that this low-pressure area will likely concentrate into a depression by Friday, September 26. It is then expected to cross the South Odisha-North Andhra Pradesh coasts by Saturday morning, September 27. The recent increase in rainfall strength across Kerala is directly attributed to this system, which is pulling significant moisture inland from the ocean. Heavy rainfall witnessed in southern and central Kerala on Thursday serves as an indicator that more intense rains are probable for central and northern parts of the state over the coming two days.
In response to these forecasts, the IMD has issued a yellow alert for eight districts for Friday, September 26. These districts include Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, and Thrissur, all bracing for the likelihood of heavy rainfall. Additionally, seven districts in central and north Kerala will remain under a yellow alert on Saturday. The good news is that the intensity of the downpour is expected to diminish once the depression makes landfall.