The world stands to lose nearly a quarter of its per capita gross domestic product by 2100 if climate change continues unchecked, according to a recent study. This research, published in PLOS Climate by scientists from the University of Cambridge and the International Monetary Fund, suggests that meeting Paris Agreement goals could yield a modest 0.25% global economic benefit compared to continuing with current warming trends.
The study highlights that the 1.2°C of warming already experienced has cost the global economy an estimated 2% of income, equivalent to $1.6 trillion, between 1960 and 2014. This aligns with other research that found historical GDP losses from warming to be around 1.8%, or $1.5 trillion.
Analyzing data for 174 countries from 2015 to 2100, researchers found that under the most severe scenario—high emissions with limited adaptation—per capita income losses could reach 20-24% globally. India, in particular, faces grim projections, with potential GDP per capita losses exceeding 25% by the century’s end, though faster adaptation could mitigate this to 4.89%.
Surprisingly, the study reveals that countries like Canada could suffer losses of up to 31%, with South Africa and the United States facing 28% declines each. Russia, Greece, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, South Korea, Mexico, and Australia could also see losses around 24%. Even traditionally resilient Nordic countries like Sweden (20%), Finland (18%), Norway (17%), and Denmark (15%) are projected to experience significant economic impacts.
The authors noted that while hotter, low-income nations are disproportionately affected, colder climates are not immune due to the faster rate of temperature increases in those regions. They concluded that urgent global action is imperative to curb greenhouse gas emissions and protect economies from substantial future income losses.
In related news, India’s The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) has launched an updated Green Budgeting Toolkit to assist governments and organizations in integrating environmental considerations into fiscal planning. Several Indian states and union territories are already adopting green budgeting practices, showing promising results in scaling up environmental initiatives.