“From 2025 to 2030, Nitish Again” declares a popular slogan. In the intricate world of Bihar politics, Nitish Kumar defies simple categorization; he is both a steadfast constant and an ever-changing variable. Over the last two and a half decades, he has remarkably been sworn in as Chief Minister nine times. Seven of these stints saw him backed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while two were with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Since November 2005, despite shifts in the opposition’s lineup, Nitish has largely held the Chief Minister’s office, with only a brief 278-day interlude where Jitan Ram Majhi, his chosen proxy, took the helm. This makes him, ironically, the most unpredictable figure in Bihar’s political drama.
His career is marked by a series of bewildering ideological shifts, allowing him to repeatedly reinvent his political persona. In Patna, it’s an open secret that any alliance he joins immediately gains a significant advantage. He acts as the crucial variable, capable of balancing any political equation, both in terms of numbers and strategy.
Lately, however, Kumar has garnered attention for a string of public missteps. These include mistakenly calling Prime Minister Narendra Modi “Chief Minister,” curiously examining Modi’s inked finger, urging crowds to elect “4,000 MPs,” and confusing a Rajya Sabha member for a Lok Sabha member. Videos of him fidgeting during the National Anthem or inadvertently touching a bureaucrat’s feet have rapidly spread across social media.
While these incidents might provide fleeting amusement for online audiences, they inevitably spark serious questions about Nitish Kumar’s mental sharpness. This narrative is further fueled by unverified rumors from political adversaries and, at times, even by those within his own party. Yet, despite these concerns, neither the BJP wishes to appear to desert him before the election, nor do his rivals dare to launch personal attacks.
The BJP has been exceptionally keen to reassure voters that Nitish Kumar remains the Chief Ministerial candidate for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), swiftly reprimanding any party member who suggests otherwise. For instance, Bihar Deputy Chief Minister and BJP leader Vijay Kumar Sinha, during an event honoring former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on December 25, 2024, suggested that a BJP-led government would be the ultimate tribute to Vajpayee. However, just twenty-four hours later, he convened a press conference to deliver a convoluted clarification, reaffirming the BJP’s unwavering support for Nitish. The RJD, too, has adopted a cautious stance. Tejashwi Yadav, the Leader of the Opposition and de facto RJD president, while fiercely criticizing Nitish, always maintains a respectful tone, often limiting his remarks to stating, “This is the government of a tired Chief Minister run by retired bureaucrats.”
Nitish Kumar occupies a unique position, one he meticulously crafted over decades, often overshadowing his setbacks and embarrassments. His ascent to power was neither quick nor effortless; he frequently faced defeats that pushed him to the brink of abandoning politics entirely. His journey began in 1966 when he arrived in Patna from Bakhtiyarpur, a small town, to attend Patna Science College. He initially engaged in student politics, joining the Samajwadi Yuvjan Sangh, the youth wing of Ram Manohar Lohia’s Samyukta Socialist Party. He later served on the steering committee of Jayaprakash Narayan’s (JP) Chhatra Sangharsh Samiti, or Students’ Action Committee. While figures like Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan asserted that JP personally selected their constituencies for the 1977 Lok Sabha election, Nitish held no such personal connection with JP.
The anti-Congress sentiment of March 1977 propelled many young Bihari leaders, who would later become Nitish’s allies and rivals, into Parliament. In the subsequent Assembly election in October, the Janata Party secured a resounding victory, capturing 214 out of 324 seats. However, Nitish, contesting from Harnaut on a Janata Party ticket, lost by 5,895 votes—a significant defeat amidst widespread success for his party. His loss was largely attributed to the repercussions of the notorious Belchi massacre.
On May 27, 1977, the tragic Belchi massacre saw eleven young men, including nine Dalits, brutally murdered by members of the powerful Kurmi community. The influential Kurmi lobby pressured candidates to ensure the culprits faced no repercussions. Nitish, deeply rooted in socialist principles, refused to compromise on justice. His perceived indecisiveness on the matter led to his rejection by voters. He faced another defeat in the 1980 Assembly election, losing to Arun Chaudhary, a key accused in the very massacre that had plagued his previous campaign.
While the Belchi tragedy initially hindered Nitish’s political career, it ironically became a catalyst for Indira Gandhi’s return to power in Delhi. Following the Congress party’s devastating defeat to the Janata Party in 1977, her resurgence began with a dramatic elephant ride to the remote village of Belchi to meet the victims’ families. This poignant visit served as a powerful condemnation of the Janata Party governments at both the central and state levels. Nitish finally tasted victory in his third attempt in 1985, winning the Harnaut Assembly seat by an impressive 22,000 votes. From that point on, he maintained a continuous presence in the legislature. In 1989, he successfully contested the Lok Sabha election from Barh, holding the seat for five consecutive terms. Just a month after Lalu Prasad became Bihar’s Chief Minister, Nitish was appointed a junior Minister in the V.P. Singh government at the Centre.
The political camaraderie between Nitish and Lalu began during their university years. As a student leader, Nitish preferred to operate discreetly, focusing on drafting press releases and distributing them to newspaper offices, while Lalu gained prominence as a charismatic student leader. Unlike Lalu, whose eloquent speeches captivated audiences, Nitish, despite being a capable speaker, often lacked an engaging delivery, appearing stiff and self-conscious. Nevertheless, he actively campaigned for Lalu, contributing to his victory as president of the Patna University Students’ Union in 1973. In 1989, Nitish again played a pivotal role, assisting Lalu in becoming the Leader of the Opposition following the demise of socialist stalwart Karpoori Thakur, amidst a fragmented Lok Dal in Bihar. A year later, Nitish championed Lalu’s bid for Chief Minister within the fiercely competitive Janata Dal, helping him secure the top post for the first time in March 1990. However, this alliance quickly fractured, and within two years, their communication ceased.
Nitish grew increasingly disillusioned with Lalu’s “dictatorial” style and the perceived concentration of power within the Yadav community. He harbored deep resentment privately but hesitated to openly rebel against his former ally. Nitish, by nature, is not a spontaneous rebel; he meticulously deliberates on an issue, dissecting every aspect before making a move.
The simmering tensions with Lalu finally erupted publicly in 1994 at the Kurmi Chetna Rally, which served as a platform for the Kurmi community’s dissent against Yadav dominance under Lalu’s leadership. According to Bihar’s latest caste survey, Kurmis, an agrarian caste, represent 2.87% of the state’s population. Nitish’s appearance on stage wasn’t entirely his own initiative; colleagues eager for a leader to spearhead the anti-Lalu movement nudged him into the spotlight. At the rally in Patna’s Gandhi Maidan, Nitish passionately declared, “We seek our rightful share, not charity.” The Janata Dal officially split on April 21, 1994, with 14 MPs forming the Samata Party. This new political chapter, however, began with another setback for Nitish. In the 1995 Assembly election, Lalu achieved his strongest electoral performance yet, winning 164 seats. The Samata Party found itself in a precarious position, securing only seven seats, with a staggering 271 of its 310 candidates losing their security deposits. Nitish, no stranger to political disappointments, was left to salvage his bruised ego. Marginalized but resilient, he forged an alliance with the BJP. Their shared objective was clear: to oust Lalu. Combining Nitish’s backward caste support with the BJP’s forward caste base, this new coalition finally possessed the numerical strength to challenge Lalu effectively.
Nitish’s commitment to secularism did not impede this new coalition. He had previously voiced opposition to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s anti-Babri Masjid campaign and even supported L.K. Advani’s arrest in Bihar. This strategic alliance quickly bore fruit. In the 1996 Lok Sabha election, the BJP secured 12 seats, and the Samata Party won six. This powerful combination ultimately led to Nitish Kumar’s first elevation to the Chief Minister’s position on March 3, 2000. However, their combined strength of 122 seats fell two short of the RJD’s 124, and his government lasted a mere seven days.
A disheartened Nitish retreated to Delhi to recuperate from yet another political setback. True victory, a long-awaited triumph, arrived on November 24, 2005. His initial full term as Chief Minister is widely regarded as a period of profound transformation for Bihar. He introduced a dynamic combination of development initiatives and inclusive social representation. His strategy involved both tangible and social connections: he oversaw the construction of vast road networks while simultaneously extending government welfare programs to previously marginalized communities. Infrastructure development progressed alongside the organization of Mahadalit rallies. Kumar implemented reservations for backward sections within the Muslim community, introduced specific welfare schemes for other marginalized groups, and mandated 50% reservation for women in local governance. These bold steps were viewed as a significant advancement beyond the symbolic empowerment offered by his predecessors. A true maverick, he transcended traditional caste divisions to cultivate a strong support base among the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), the state’s largest caste group, comprising 36.01% of the population.
This vast EBC grouping encompasses 130 distinct communities and sub-groups dispersed throughout Bihar. Despite their considerable collective strength, the EBCs have historically suffered from political and social fragmentation. Interestingly, Nitish Kumar’s individual political ascent and the electoral performance of the Janata Dal (United) – a party formed from the merger of the Samata Party, the Sharad Yadav faction of the Janata Dal, and the Lok Shakti party – have often diverged. Even as the JD(U)’s seat count dwindled over the years, Nitish consistently retained the Chief Minister’s office. The JD(U) last held the status of the single largest party in the Bihar Assembly in 2010, securing 115 seats in an election widely perceived as a direct endorsement of Nitish’s governance. Since that peak, however, the state administration has gradually succumbed to widespread neglect and corruption. By the 2020 Assembly election, the JD(U) plummeted to a mere 43 seats, finishing in third place—a clear reflection of increasing voter disillusionment and concerted efforts by allies to undermine Nitish’s leadership.
In 2020, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), then an NDA constituent, chose to go it alone, launching a direct offensive against Nitish Kumar with the slogan: “No enmity with Modi, but Nitish, you won’t be spared.” The LJP fielded candidates in 135 constituencies. Yet, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Nitish defied his detractors once more, leading the JD(U) to victory in 12 of the 16 seats it contested. “The robust social base Nitish Kumar cultivated during his first term—by actively engaging with marginalized backward and Dalit communities and empowering women—continues to be a formidable asset,” notes Manindra Nath Thakur, a Professor at the Centre for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Nitish Kumar’s remarkable ideological flexibility has been key to countering voter exhaustion. His frequent political maneuvers, though seemingly erratic, are a calculated blend of personal conviction and strategic political necessity. In 2013, he publicly disavowed Narendra Modi after the BJP appointed him campaign committee chief. This led him to break a 17-year alliance with the BJP and forge ties with Lalu in 2015—the very adversary he had long sought to unseat. However, within two years, he rejoined the NDA after corruption allegations emerged against his deputy, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav. Nitish justified his move, stating, “My decision to quit was taken in the interest of Bihar. We had the mandate to serve the people, not one family.”
He declared that secularism should not be a shield for corruption, vowing never to repeat such a mistake. Yet, in 2022, he did precisely that, rejoining the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) and reinstating Tejashwi as his deputy. “I have nothing much to say on how suffocated we felt in the NDA,” he remarked after resigning as Chief Minister of the coalition government. Announcing the JD(U)’s split from the BJP, party president and staunch Nitish loyalist Rajiv Ranjan Singh, also known as Lalan Singh, alleged that the BJP was attempting to replicate the “Maharashtra model” in Bihar by internally destabilizing the JD(U).
The 2024 Political Pivot
However, this explanation alone doesn’t fully account for Nitish Kumar’s decision. In his later years, he seemed prepared to abandon his familiar political arena to venture into an uncertain future, fueled by a strong belief that the BJP could be defeated in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. He envisioned a potential national role for himself, hoping to lead the Opposition back to power. He actively spearheaded the formation of a “coalition of the willing,” a diverse group united by a shared ambition to unseat Modi. He traveled extensively to Delhi, engaging with various Opposition leaders, tirelessly championing “Opposition unity for the greater good of the nation,” and presenting it as essential for preserving Indian democracy. He successfully brought them together, and at a meeting he hosted in Patna in July 2023, the Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) was officially formed. Yet, by the third meeting of this new coalition, Nitish began to realize that the influential leadership role he desired within the alliance would remain out of reach. He had anticipated being appointed the convener of the INDIA bloc, but other Opposition parties, particularly the Congress, believed that such a position would implicitly position him as their prime ministerial candidate—a title they were unwilling to concede. Opposition leaders later admitted that if he had been offered the convener post, placing him directly against Modi as a primary challenger, Nitish would likely have remained with the alliance. Nonetheless, no such leadership role materialized. Consequently, in January 2024, just months before the Lok Sabha election, he made yet another return to the NDA. His earlier assessment, however, wasn’t entirely mistaken: the BJP, which had secured 303 seats in 2019, saw its tally drop to 240 in 2024.
The current stability of the Narendra Modi government significantly hinges on the support of the JD(U) and the Telugu Desam Party. However, for a politician of Nitish Kumar’s shrewdness, the events following the 2024 election appear surprisingly inexplicable. At the first NDA meeting post-election results, he was observed touching Modi’s feet. Subsequently, he agreed to concessions for the BJP that he had previously staunchly resisted. The JD(U) accepted only two positions in the Union Council of Ministers—both widely regarded as “inconsequential” portfolios—without any notable objection. JD(U) president Rajiv Ranjan was appointed Minister for Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying, and Minister for Panchayati Raj, while Ramnath Thakur, a Rajya Sabha member from the party, was made Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare.
This stance starkly contrasted with the JD(U)’s position in 2019, when Nitish had firmly advocated for “proportional representation” over mere “symbolic presence,” demanding at least four ministerial berths given the BJP’s five Ministers from Bihar at the time. It’s worth noting that in July 2021, Nitish’s former aide, R.C.P. Singh, defied him to secure a Cabinet position. However, within a year, Singh was compelled to exit Modi’s Cabinet after the JD(U) declined to renominate him to the Rajya Sabha. Nitish and the JD(U) have since visibly demonstrated their deference to the BJP, assenting to Modi’s decisions and endorsing even contentious legislation. A notable instance is the Waqf (Amendment) Act, which permits direct governmental intervention in Waqf property management. Rajiv Ranjan became a prominent proponent of this Bill. Despite strong opposition from various Muslim organizations in Bihar, the JD(U) offered no token objections. In his increasingly infrequent public appearances, Nitish now frequently asks audiences, “What was there before 2005?” This invocation of the past is crucial for him, as the present political landscape appears less than favorable.
After two decades under Nitish Kumar’s leadership, Bihar continues to grapple with significant challenges. The recent caste survey offers a stark critique of the state’s economy and questions the impact of his 20-year tenure. Out of Bihar’s 2.97 crore households, a troubling 34.13% subsist on a monthly income of ₹6,000 or less, with the highest poverty rates observed among Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). Professor Thakur points out that while Nitish successfully initiated infrastructure development, he failed to attract crucial private investment into the state. Consequently, both migration and unemployment remain persistently high. “Bihar endures not due to Nitish, but thanks to the financial support sent by its vast migrant population,” Thakur asserts. A substantial portion of Bihar’s budget is allocated to servicing loans from the World Bank and other international organizations. An analysis of the 2025-26 Bihar Budget by PRS India, a non-profit organization, projects the state’s total debt to soar to an estimated 37% of its GDP by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year.
Adding to the uncertainty, Nitish Kumar’s successor remains a mystery, prompting the frequent question: “Who after Nitish?” On June 29, 2024, the JD(U)’s national executive meeting in Delhi saw Sanjay Jha, a close associate of Nitish and a Rajya Sabha member, appointed as the party’s working president, essentially making him the second-in-command. This role was previously held by Rajiv Ranjan, the party’s national president, from July 2021 to December 2023. However, neither Jha, a Brahmin, nor Rajiv Ranjan, a Bhumihar, are considered viable candidates to lead a party whose support base heavily relies on EBC votes. Rajiv Ranjan’s prospects, in particular, seem to have diminished following a recent public reprimand from Nitish. At a public meeting on April 24, 2025, also attended by the Prime Minister, Nitish explicitly blamed Rajiv Ranjan for the JD(U)’s decision to break ties with the BJP-led NDA in 2022 and align with the RJD. This public humiliation has reportedly left Rajiv Ranjan deeply upset. Nitish’s remarks are interpreted as a clear expression of his suspicion that Rajiv Ranjan is secretly collaborating with the RJD leadership. Early in 2025, Nitish’s son, Nishant, also made a public foray. Though he has largely remained out of politics, Nishant’s image has begun appearing on JD(U) posters, and he has issued public statements. While he meets the caste criteria and has an unblemished record, the 48-year-old engineering graduate is politically inexperienced and lacks any electoral history.
Within the JD(U), several individuals harbor aspirations of inheriting Nitish Kumar’s political legacy. Prominent among them is Dalit leader and Cabinet Minister Ashok Choudhary. A former Bihar Congress chief, Choudhary has shown unwavering loyalty to Nitish since joining the JD(U) in 2018. Nitish shares a cordial relationship with Choudhary, frequently commending him and appearing at ease in his company. Even after stirring controversy with a satirical poem about Nitish’s increasing age, Choudhary, surprisingly, was not rebuked but instead promoted to national general secretary. As the JD(U)’s future appears uncertain, both the RJD and the BJP are strategically positioning themselves to capture the crucial vote bank that Nitish meticulously cultivated throughout his extensive career. “The Extremely Backward Classes are unlikely to gravitate towards the forward-caste-dominated BJP or the Yadav-dominated RJD,” explains Professor Thakur. “Both parties are actively working to shed these perceptions, but the BJP has been more effective by appointing non-Brahmin and non-Bhumihar leaders to top positions.” With another Assembly election imminent, many anticipate it will be Nitish Kumar’s final act. However, it is premature to write him off. Nitish has undeniably carved a place in history for bringing an unprecedented period of stability to Bihar. This upcoming election, however, will be the ultimate arbiter of his legacy: whether he is remembered as a transformative leader who reshaped the state’s destiny or merely another Chief Minister in the continuous cycle of Indian politics.