Pakistan has recorded an alarming 3,730 farm fires in the 10 days leading up to October 25, marking the highest count for this period in records dating back to 2012. Meteorologists are concerned that these smoke plumes could soon drift towards North India as wind patterns change.
This development comes as Delhi’s air quality has worsened, returning to the “very poor” category. The Air Quality Index (AQI) reached 292 by late Saturday evening, up from 275 the previous day. This decline occurred after a brief improvement on Friday, attributed to stronger winds that helped clear pollution from Diwali celebrations. By Saturday night, the AQI had crossed the 300 mark, indicating very poor air quality.
Experts believe that local pollution sources are currently the main contributors to Delhi’s air quality issues. Current west-to-east wind patterns are keeping the smoke from Pakistan primarily over Punjab and parts of Jammu and Kashmir. However, this situation is expected to change with an approaching western disturbance between October 27-29, a period that also coincides with predicted increases in farm fires in Punjab.
Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, commented, “In the coming days, if stubble burning on the Punjab side of Pakistan continues, it actually might impact Delhi’s air pollution level as well.” He anticipates northwesterly winds that could carry pollutants to the capital, potentially causing a significant rise in pollution levels. This yearly cycle of farm fire smoke combined with local pollutants and pre-winter meteorological conditions often leads to public health emergencies in the National Capital Region, with AQI levels frequently exceeding 400.
Ashwary Tiwari, who manages IndiaMetSky, echoed these concerns, stating there’s a “big possibility” that Pakistan’s high farm fire count will affect air quality across the Indo-Gangetic Plain once the Western Disturbance clears. He predicts that accumulating smoke and pollutants over Pakistan and northwestern India will be transported by northwesterly-westerly winds, potentially exacerbated by strong upper-level winds.
NASA’s VIIRS satellite data shows Pakistan’s total October fire count reached 5,908 by October 25, the fourth highest for this period in 13 years. The fires have been concentrated in the latter half of October, with the October 16-25 period seeing the highest numbers since 2012.
In stark contrast, Punjab is experiencing its lowest burning season on record, with only 498 fires reported in the same 10-day period, a significant drop from previous years. However, with only about 52% of the paddy crop harvested and the window for wheat sowing narrowing, a surge in farm fires is anticipated in the coming days as farmers work to clear their fields.
Local weather conditions played a significant role in Saturday’s pollution spike. Sunil Dahiya, lead analyst at Envirocatalysts, noted that mixed wind directions allowed pollution from surrounding areas like Gurugram, Ghaziabad, and Sonipat to accumulate in Delhi.
Meteorologists like Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather explain that the current calm, west-to-east wind flow is preventing the smoke from Pakistan from reaching Delhi. However, post-Western Disturbance, the shift to northwesterly winds is expected to change this scenario. Tiwari warns that when the pollution does arrive, it could lead to moderately increased AQI levels, with pollution peaking in the mornings and evenings, and creating a hazy, grey sky due to smoke and soot lingering in the lower atmosphere.