As the political arena in Bihar gears up for another crucial assembly election, poll pundits are predicting a tight contest between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan. However, for many residents of Bihar, the outcome seems preordained: ‘Whoever wins, Nitish will be the Chief Minister.’ This sentiment, voiced by Patna resident Jyotsana Singh, highlights the dominant presence of Nitish Kumar, who has steered the state for two decades, navigating a complex web of alliances and political shifts.
The Unwavering Presence of Nitish Kumar
Bihar is set to vote in two phases on November 6 and 11, with results expected on November 14. The electoral landscape continues to be defined by Nitish Kumar, an engineer-turned-politician who has held the position of Chief Minister since 2005, through a series of strategic partnerships, separations, and reunions. The NDA, with Nitish Kumar at its forefront, is seeking a renewed mandate against the INDIA bloc, led by Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD and supported by the Congress. Political analysts suggest that the NDA, with Nitish Kumar as its de facto leader, possesses a distinct advantage, not necessarily due to a prevailing political wave, but because of the significant void his absence would create. As one Patna-based journalist aptly put it, “You can imagine Bihar without development, but not without Nitish Kumar in the conversation.”
Nitish Kumar is often portrayed with contrasting personas: ‘Sushasan Babu’, the proponent of good governance who replaced the ‘Jungle Raj’ era with improved infrastructure and safety, and ‘Paltu Kumar’, a derisive label for a leader perceived to frequently switch allegiances between the BJP and RJD.
Nitish Kumar’s Shifting Alliances
Few political figures have demonstrated as much fluidity in their alliances as Nitish Kumar. His political journey saw him become Chief Minister in 2000 with the BJP’s support. However, in 2013, following the BJP’s nomination of Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, Nitish Kumar ended a 17-year alliance with the party, citing ideological differences. He then formed the Mahagathbandhan with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and the Congress, leading to a decisive victory in the 2015 assembly elections and his return to the CM’s office. In 2017, amidst corruption allegations against Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav, Nitish Kumar resigned, only to form a government with the BJP-led NDA within hours. This alliance persisted through the 2019 general elections. By 2022, however, Nitish Kumar once again distanced himself from the BJP, accusing them of attempting to undermine his party. He rejoined the Mahagathbandhan with the RJD and Congress, marking his eighth term as Chief Minister. In a further twist, in January 2024, he realigned with the NDA, securing his ninth term as Chief Minister.
The Enduring Significance of Nitish Kumar
Nitish Kumar’s political legacy is built on three fundamental pillars: maintaining order, implementing welfare programs, and ensuring continuity. He is widely credited with rescuing Bihar from the lawlessness of the 1990s, re-establishing essential governance structures, and championing targeted welfare initiatives. These include providing 125 units of free electricity to households, extending piped water facilities to villages, offering financial assistance to women, and promising one crore jobs within five years. For a vast segment of rural and women voters, he remains the leader who consistently delivers results. An InkInsight Opinion Poll indicated that 60.4% of women voters favored the Nitish-led NDA, compared to 28.4% for Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan. Anjali Devi, a homemaker from Gaya, remarked, “Nitishji doesn’t shout. He delivers quietly. Women feel safe and respected under him.”
The NDA’s Stable, Yet Uneasy, Alliance
The BJP, contesting 101 seats, has presented an image of organizational strength, while the JD(U) has also finalized its candidates for its 101 seats. Despite minor friction from allies like HAM and RLM regarding the LJP’s allocation of 29 seats, the alliance appears more cohesive than in 2020. The BJP, having previously considered undermining Nitish Kumar through Chirag Paswan’s rebellion in 2020, now recognizes that a weakened Nitish Kumar would inevitably weaken the entire NDA.
The Opposition’s Missed Opportunity
Conversely, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan seems to be facing internal challenges. With nominations nearing their deadline, the alliance is yet to finalize its seat-sharing agreement. Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign, which initially promised youthful dynamism, now appears to suffer from inconsistent messaging. Having allied with Nitish Kumar twice since 2015, the RJD has weakened its anti-incumbency platform. Furthermore, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is attracting the anti-establishment vote that might have otherwise gravitated towards the RJD. A political observer in Patna noted, “Tejashwi looks entitled, not inspiring. And Nitish, even when silent, benefits from that contrast.”
A SWOT Analysis of Nitish Kumar
With the Bihar elections imminent, a SWOT analysis of Nitish Kumar reveals:
Strengths:
- Extensive administrative experience as the longest-serving Chief Minister.
- Popular welfare schemes, including enhanced social security pensions, financial aid of ₹10,000 to 75 lakh women, and significant infrastructure development.
- A robust alliance between the BJP and JD(U), backed by central leadership.
- Perceived as a symbol of stability in a politically volatile state.
Weaknesses:
- Significant anti-incumbency sentiment after two decades in power.
- Diminished autonomy within the NDA.
- A public perception of political opportunism due to frequent alliance shifts.
Opportunities:
- A central position in a polarized political landscape.
- Continued credibility among moderate, non-ideological voters.
- Potential indispensability for the BJP post-election due to their social limitations.
Threats:
- Eroded trust resulting from his repeated switches between the BJP and RJD.
- A generational challenge posed by Tejashwi Yadav.
- Voter fatigue among those seeking new leadership and quicker job creation.
For Nitish Kumar, the 2025 Bihar assembly election is more than just another contest; it represents a referendum on his continued relevance. The key question remains: will he be remembered as the modernizer of Bihar or as a leader who overstayed his welcome?