The Janata Dal (United) – JD(U) – appears to be making a strategic shift in its candidate selection for the upcoming Bihar elections, fielding only four Muslim candidates out of the 101 seats it is contesting. This decision marks a significant departure from Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s long-standing efforts since 2005 to maintain the support of the minority community.
Historically, despite alliances with the BJP, Nitish Kumar has strived to uphold his secular image through various welfare schemes for minority communities. However, recent electoral trends and statements from party leaders suggest a change in strategy, possibly stemming from the party’s performance in previous elections, including the last Lok Sabha polls.
The influence of minority votes in Bihar, particularly in constituencies where they form a substantial bloc, is well-recognized as a potential game-changer. However, Nitish Kumar has not consistently been the primary choice for these voters in Bihar.
The JD(U)’s past electoral performance with minority candidates has been mixed. In the 2020 Assembly elections, out of 11 Muslim candidates fielded by the party, none secured a win. In contrast, the AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, gained momentum, winning five seats, partly due to its stance on issues like the Citizen Amendment Act (CAA).
Looking back further, in 2010, 14 Muslim candidates from JD(U) were fielded, and none were successful. This period also saw a general decline in Muslim representation in the Bihar Assembly following the NDA’s landslide victory.
A notable exception was the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, where five out of seven Muslim candidates from JD(U) emerged victorious. However, this success occurred when JD(U) was allied with the RJD and the Congress, suggesting that minority voter preference might be influenced by the party’s political alignment.
Political analysts like Prof NK Choudhary suggest that while Nitish Kumar has consistently worked for minority welfare, his alliance with the BJP may have hindered his appeal as a first choice for Muslim voters. The party’s stance on issues like the Waqf Amendment Act might also signal a realization that solely appeasing minority votes, given past track records, could be challenging.
Recent statements from prominent JD(U) leaders have further fueled this discussion. Former MLC Ghulaam Rasool Baliyawi’s comment that not voting for Nitish Kumar in 2025 would make Muslims appear as “traitors” highlighted the perceived debt owed to the Chief Minister for his secular credentials. Similarly, Lalan Singh, a senior JD(U) leader and Union Minister, remarked that minorities have historically not voted for Nitish Kumar, despite his extensive welfare work for all communities.
These statements have generated controversy, with leaders sometimes clarifying or retracting their remarks. However, they reflect a complex narrative surrounding the JD(U)’s relationship with its minority voter base and its evolving electoral strategy.
Experts like DM Diwakar, former director of AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies, interpret the JD(U)’s support for the Waqf Bill as a clear signal that the party may be shifting away from appeasing minority appeasement. This, coupled with the party’s performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, suggests a strategic recalibration.
The political landscape in Bihar continues to be dynamic, and the JD(U)’s current approach to candidate selection reflects a careful consideration of electoral outcomes and community dynamics.