For a long time, Chinese authorities angrily dismissed U.S. calls for TikTok’s Chinese parent company to sell its American operations, labeling such demands as outright theft. However, Chinese state media are now celebrating a possible agreement as a ‘win-win’ situation. This Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and former President Trump are slated to discuss and potentially endorse this significant deal over the phone.
From Beijing’s perspective, this sudden policy shift offers a perceived victory to the American president on an issue he deeply values: the preservation of TikTok, a massively popular video app he credits for boosting his connection with young voters and securing his re-election. In return, China aims to carve out more leverage in negotiations concerning its most vital interests: trade tariffs, technological advancements, and the delicate matter of Taiwan.
“There are far more significant issues at play,” noted Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. She elaborated that if China can utilize minor concessions, such as the TikTok deal, to foster a more favorable atmosphere and improve U.S.-China relations, they will undoubtedly pursue it.
This TikTok agreement, coupled with the upcoming phone call, could lay the groundwork for a high-stakes summit next month – marking the first face-to-face encounter between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi during the former’s second term. While Beijing favors hosting Mr. Trump on its own turf, a meeting on the fringes of an impending regional summit in South Korea remains a possibility.
It appears TikTok has always been a strategic asset for China. The app’s future in the United States, despite concerns over national security, is of lesser importance to Beijing compared to more pressing issues. These include U.S. export controls and tariffs, which pose significant threats to China’s economic and technological growth.
Furthermore, TikTok’s core recommendation algorithm holds less strategic value for the Chinese leadership now than it did when the controversy surrounding the app first emerged five years ago, as its novelty has diminished.
According to Dimitar Gueorguiev, director of Chinese studies at Syracuse University, TikTok has become an ‘expendable concession’ for China. He explained that Chinese officials intentionally allowed the issue to linger for years, reserving it as a potential solution to alleviate pressure from Washington. Now, a deal costs Beijing less than when initial negotiations began, yet it still provides the strongest appearance of compromise.
Beijing’s strategic timing for playing the TikTok card is crucial, leveraging its near-monopoly on critical minerals. China processes almost 90 percent of the world’s rare earth metals, essential for manufacturing magnets used in cars, wind turbines, and jets. This strong position gives Beijing significant influence in potential discussions with Mr. Trump.
“The Chinese approach is marked by greater experience, patience, and tactical shrewdness,” stated Li Daokui, a distinguished economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “They possess a clear understanding of U.S. objectives and are well-versed in Trump’s unique negotiation tactics.”
To sweeten the deal for Mr. Trump, China might offer to increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans – an outcome the former president has openly expressed a desire for – or agree to buy more Boeing aircraft.
However, Beijing would need to execute such promises swiftly. Bidding on this year’s soybean crop is already behind schedule, and Boeing’s manufacturing slots are rapidly being booked. Furthermore, China’s leaders acknowledge the inherent risks of negotiating with an unpredictable figure like Mr. Trump.
“They recognize the necessity of a trade agreement to facilitate Trump’s potential visit to China, and they are keen to ensure such a deal is irreversible – to prevent a situation where they fully commit, only for the U.S. to betray their trust,” explained Dr. Sun.
“While they can’t predict a repeat of past betrayals, they understand that such an occurrence would be a profound humiliation for the Chinese leader.”
Despite U.S. pressure, Mr. Xi is expected to approach Friday’s call with a strong sense of confidence. He has effectively demonstrated Beijing’s extensive network of international allies. Earlier this month, he oversaw a grand military parade in Beijing, notably accompanied by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. Prior to that, he welcomed leaders including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a security summit in Tianjin.
The sight of Mr. Trump joining a procession of global leaders visiting Beijing to honor China’s most influential leader in decades would significantly enhance Mr. Xi’s domestic standing, especially as his administration grapples with economic revitalization. Such a visit would powerfully project an image of the Chinese leader being actively sought out by the U.S. president.
“China’s objective will be to illustrate its indispensable role, proving that the U.S. has a greater dependency on it,” stated Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group.
Crucially, a state visit offers Beijing meticulous control over public perception, allowing them to circumvent the kind of public reprimand that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky experienced from Mr. Trump at the White House in February.
“They are not prepared to risk their leader traveling to the U.S. only to be publicly rebuked,” Dr. Sun elaborated.
The path to a potential meeting has gained significant traction. Key U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have engaged in recent discussions with their Chinese counterparts. For months, Mr. Trump himself has openly expressed a keen interest in meeting the Chinese leader, whom he consistently refers to as a “good friend” and frequently praises.
Beijing is anticipated to advocate for the removal of tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump, which he justified by accusing China of failing to curb the flow of fentanyl-precursor chemicals into the U.S. Additionally, China seeks Washington to ease export restrictions on advanced semiconductors and reduce its support for Taiwan, a territory Beijing regards as an integral part of its nation.
The conversation on Friday will serve as a crucial test: an opportunity for both leaders to assess if they can forge additional mutually beneficial agreements, thereby justifying a full-fledged summit.
“This call is pivotal in determining if both sides are prepared for deeper engagement, or if they will settle for a less significant encounter,” such as on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, explained Amanda Hsiao, China director for the Eurasia Group, an investment advisory firm.
According to Chinese officials, the preliminary agreement reached in Madrid earlier this week with their U.S. counterparts extends beyond just TikTok. It reportedly includes provisions for reducing investment barriers and fostering enhanced trade and economic cooperation – subjects that are also expected to be on the agenda for the leaders’ call.
Mr. Xi might additionally encourage Mr. Trump to chart his own course, disregarding the more hawkish elements within his administration who, in the Chinese leader’s view, aim to constrain China. During their last phone conversation in June, Mr. Xi likened the U.S.-China relationship to a massive vessel guided by two formidable helmsmen, cautioning Mr. Trump to “avoid various disruptions or even sabotage.”
“Significant divergences exist between Trump and his advisors. China will almost certainly attempt to identify and capitalize on these disparities,” noted Mr. Wyne of the International Crisis Group.
The mere occurrence of this conversation suggests to some analysts that the relationship is stabilizing. However, its continued trajectory hinges on the outcome of any future in-person meeting between the two leaders.
“Until then, we cannot definitively say this is a truly stable and predictable relationship,” cautioned Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. “I believe we are heading in that direction, but the pivotal benchmark will be the upcoming summit.”
Additional reporting by Pei-Lin Wu.