Emerging from his meeting with President Trump on Thursday, China’s leader Xi Jinping exuded the undeniable confidence of a global power, seemingly dictating the terms of their trade discussions.
Through a calculated display of China’s immense leverage — particularly its near-monopoly on rare earths and significant influence over U.S. soybean markets — Mr. Xi successfully extracted crucial concessions from Washington. These included a reduction in tariffs, a halt to port fees on Chinese vessels, and a postponement of U.S. export controls aimed at restricting Chinese companies’ access to American technology. Additionally, an existing tariff truce, established earlier this year, was extended by both parties.
Julian Gewirtz, a former senior China policy official in the Biden administration, observed, "What’s clear is they have become increasingly bold in exerting leverage and they are happy to pocket any and all U.S. concessions."
From Busan, South Korea, where the meeting took place, a Chinese government summary reported Mr. Xi addressing Mr. Trump almost didactically, stating that the "recent twists and turns" of their trade conflict should serve as a valuable lesson for both nations.
Mr. Xi emphasized the importance of a broader perspective, urging both sides to prioritize the long-term advantages of cooperation over succumbing to a "vicious cycle of mutual retaliation."
These "twists and turns" likely alluded to the nearly year-long exchange of retaliatory tariffs, sanctions, and export controls. Just weeks prior, China significantly intensified its stance by declaring extensive new restrictions on rare-earth exports – vital minerals indispensable for virtually all modern technology. Such a cutoff would severely cripple U.S. industries.
Beijing’s message was clear: it had demonstrated a formidable capacity for retaliation, a fact Washington would be wise to acknowledge.
Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University, highlighted China’s unique response: "After Trump launched his trade and tariff war, China was the only country that matched the United States blow for blow." He suggested China’s greatest victory might be Washington’s newfound hesitation to implement further punitive measures.
Had Trump pushed China to fully enact its rare-earth export controls, it would have resulted in a "lose-lose situation for both sides," he added.
Crucially, Mr. Xi appeared to understand Mr. Trump’s domestic political needs: a deal he could confidently present as a triumph to his constituents. While China essentially reinstated the previous state of affairs by resuming soybean purchases and pausing new rare-earth export limitations, it enabled Mr. Trump to declare a victory for American agriculture and businesses.
Boarding Air Force One, Mr. Trump jubilantly pumped his fist, later announcing that Mr. Xi had consented to intensify efforts against fentanyl precursor chemicals entering the U.S. and committed to increased U.S. soybean purchases. His subsequent Truth Social post exclaimed, "Our Farmers will be very happy! I would like to thank President Xi for this!"
Following the summit, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a statement confirming a one-year suspension of the rare-earth restrictions imposed in October. Notably, there was no mention of the earlier controls from April.
In a related development, Mr. Trump declared a 50% reduction in the 20% tariffs he had previously levied on Chinese goods, a move intended to spur further Chinese action against fentanyl trafficking. This brings the overall tariffs on Chinese imports down from 57% to approximately 47%. The Chinese commerce ministry further confirmed a one-year extension of the tariff truce, which was originally slated to end on November 10th.
According to some analysts, China inherently held the advantage in the trade dispute due to the Trump administration’s perceived lack of a coherent strategy.
Jonathan Czin, a Brookings Institution fellow and former C.I.A. analyst on Chinese politics, characterized the U.S. approach as "tactics without a strategy."
He elaborated that while the stated objective was to tackle long-standing trade complexities, the People’s Republic of China effectively turned the negotiations into a ‘whack-a-mole’ game for the Trump administration.
However, a notable, albeit subtle, concession from Beijing was the absence of Taiwan in China’s official meeting summary. Typically, Chinese leaders use such high-level discussions to press Washington on its support for the self-governing island democracy that Beijing claims.
The agreements reached on Thursday hint at a potential, albeit temporary, period of calm in the often-turbulent U.S.-China relationship. Mr. Trump also mentioned that both leaders discussed collaborative efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, with reciprocal visits planned: Mr. Trump to China in April, followed by Mr. Xi to the United States.
Demonstrating diplomatic finesse, Mr. Xi played to Mr. Trump’s preference for personal connections, aligning China’s development with the American president’s ‘make America great again’ vision. Mr. Trump reciprocated the flattery, describing Mr. Xi as ‘a great leader of a great country’ and ‘a great friend.’
Lizzi C. Lee, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted this "personalized style of diplomacy plays well to both leaders’ instincts," suggesting these "gestures of good will seem to set the tone for a period of managed stability."
Nevertheless, the fragile progress achieved on Thursday remains vulnerable. Any perceived violation by either party could quickly unravel the agreement. A similar deal last month nearly collapsed when the U.S. broadened its ban on Chinese companies accessing American technology, provoking China’s rare-earth export controls and prompting Mr. Trump to threaten to cancel the meeting and impose further tariffs.
Without a comprehensive, finalized agreement, the longevity of this current diplomatic détente remains uncertain.
Ja Ian Chong, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore, expressed skepticism about the truce’s stability: "Maybe I’m jaded because I’ve seen this movie too many times, but these are issues that are relatively easy to roll back and also to accuse the other side of bad faith."
The day’s diplomatic advancements faced potential eclipse by Mr. Trump’s pre-meeting announcement that the U.S. would resume nuclear weapons testing after a three-decade hiatus. However, Mr. Trump later implied on Air Force One that this move was not aimed at China, and analysts noted it was uncertain if Mr. Xi would interpret it as a provocation.
Chinese experts emphasized that the more crucial aspect was the American president’s apparent focus on collaboration with China.
Xin Qiang, a U.S.-China expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, commented, "If Trump truly wants to implement something, if he wants to go east, his staff wouldn’t dare go west."
Pei-Lin Wu contributed additional reporting.