Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, pulses with a stark contrast of emotions. In one district, fervent government loyalists, clutching firearms, pledge their lives to defend the nation against external threats. Meanwhile, across town, worried business leaders and diplomats lament the escalating tensions with the United States, fearing a missed opportunity for dialogue and the potential for a US strike to unleash bloodshed and chaos. Yet, in other areas, a sense of battle-hardened calm prevails, coupled with deep skepticism that any political change will truly come to Venezuela.
Photographic evidence captures members of the Bolivarian militia, a government-backed reserve force, riding on an armored military vehicle through Caracas during a march in support of President Nicolás Maduro. Another image shows a bustling street during rush hour, with many observers noting that the Trump administration’s true objective appears to be targeting Mr. Maduro.
During a rare visit for foreign journalists, this reporter spent a week in Venezuela at a particularly precarious moment. Relations with the United States are at a critical juncture, with the Trump administration deploying warships to the Caribbean. The scale of this military buildup, combined with President Trump’s explicit threats against President Nicolás Maduro, has intensified fears of potential US strikes, commando raids, or an even wider conflict in the South American nation.
President Trump has publicly stated his intent to deploy military force against cartels and curb drug trafficking into the United States. His administration has gone as far as to label Mr. Maduro a leader of a terrorist organization, accusing him of threatening the US and contributing to the influx of drugs.
The US government claims to have destroyed at least three drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean, with at least two originating from Venezuela. This marks a significant escalation of the pressure tactics previously seen against Mexico to combat fentanyl trade. However, while Venezuela is indeed a transit point for some drugs, US government data indicates that fentanyl is not among them. Furthermore, cocaine trafficking through Venezuela represents a tiny fraction of the global trade, dwarfed by quantities originating from and exiting Colombia and Ecuador.
This discrepancy has led many to believe that the Trump administration’s primary aim is the removal of Mr. Maduro from power.
Within Venezuela, public opinion is divided. Some citizens openly support any action that could lead to Mr. Maduro’s ouster, citing his alleged human rights abuses and the generational grip his movement has held on the country. A video clip shows members of the Bolivarian militia participating in a rally, underlining the government’s show of force.
The faction advocating for military intervention is spearheaded by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Her supporters contend that by removing Mr. Maduro, the United States could uphold the integrity of last year’s presidential election, which many believe Mr. Maduro unfairly won. Independent international monitors and numerous countries, including the US, recognized Mr. Maduro’s opponent, Edmundo González (acting as Ms. Machado’s surrogate), as the legitimate winner.
Pedro Urruchurtu, an adviser to Ms. Machado, confirmed her coordination with the Trump administration, detailing a plan for the first 100 hours post-Maduro. This plan, he explained, would involve international allies, particularly the United States, to ensure a stable transition to Mr. González’s leadership.
However, many other Venezuelans expressed strong reservations about US involvement. Even those who desire Mr. Maduro’s departure, accusing him of maintaining power through repression, believe that a violent US intervention is not the answer. Most spoke anonymously, fearing repercussions.
Concerns were voiced about the United States’ long-term commitment to maintaining a substantial troop presence to stabilize a US-backed government. Diplomats, too, reported seeing little indication that any members of Mr. Maduro’s inner circle would defect to support the opposition or that the military would turn against him.
Other warnings emerged: ousting Mr. Maduro might merely ignite a scramble among the remaining armed factions—the military, Colombian guerrilla groups, and paramilitary gangs—for control of Venezuela’s vast natural resources. As one prominent businessman grimly put it, “You kill Maduro, you turn Venezuela into Haiti,” referencing the chaos that followed the assassination of Haiti’s last president. An accompanying image shows Vladimir Padrino López, the minister of defense, addressing members of the Bolivarian militia in Caracas.
A segment of the population remains skeptical of Mr. Trump’s actual willingness for military engagement, arguing that the president’s “gunboat diplomacy,” steered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would only alienate Venezuela further from the US, pushing it closer to China, Russia, and Iran.
Mr. Maduro’s government has responded to Washington’s military maneuvers by arming civilians, deploying tanks into the streets, and conducting national military exercises, all widely broadcast on state media. Despite this, his advisers insist their core message to Washington is a desire to avoid war. Another image depicts militia members at a rally in Caracas.
The Venezuelan president recently sent a letter to Mr. Trump, commending his efforts to de-escalate other conflicts and expressing openness to a “direct and frank conversation” with Mr. Trump’s special envoy for Venezuela, Richard Grenell. Earlier this year, Mr. Grenell had seemingly pursued improved relations, even traveling to Venezuela to meet Mr. Maduro shortly after Mr. Trump assumed office. However, Mr. Trump has since appeared to favor Mr. Rubio’s more aggressive stance.
In an interview at her office within the oil ministry, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez asserted her belief that Mr. Trump is ushering the world into “a stage where the United States has openly declared war on the world.” She continued, “The Ministry of Defense is no longer Defense, it’s the Ministry of War. Trade relations are no longer trade relations, they are a trade war.” Ms. Rodríguez condemned the boat attacks as “absolutely illegal” and advocated for a normalization of economic ties with the United States, which has imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s crucial oil sector. “The people of the United States do not want war in the Caribbean,” she concluded. An image shows Delcy Rodríguez after her interview.
Despite the escalating tensions, Foreign Minister Yván Gil confirmed that Venezuela continues to accept twice-weekly flights carrying deportees from the United States.
Several diplomats and business leaders in Caracas express hope for a return to US diplomacy, believing that sustained negotiations could eventually convince Mr. Maduro to transfer power to a reformist or moderate opposition leader, in exchange for sanctions relief and other concessions. They note that Mr. Maduro, 62, who has governed since 2013, appears fatigued but cannot step down if he fears arrest, especially given his indictment in the US on drug conspiracy charges.
On the streets of Caracas, the strain between the two nations manifests in contrasting scenes of readiness for conflict and the pursuit of ordinary life. One photographic diptych shows a militia member clutching a rifle adorned with a bravery medal, while another captures a different militia member at a rally.
During a recent government-organized rally on a downtown boulevard, the crowd comprised both civilians and members of the Bolivarian militia. Many attendees, some of whom admitted their presence was mandated by superiors and that their rifles were unloaded, hurried away as soon as the event concluded. Others, driven by patriotism, vowed allegiance to Mr. Maduro’s movement. Marisol Amundaray, 50, declared, “If there is an invasion, I will safeguard my children and head to the street with my rifle.”
Elsewhere in the city, however, daily routines continued. Not far from the presidential palace, Constanza Sofía Arangeren twirled in a gold ball gown for a photographer, preparing for her 15th birthday celebration. Her mother, it seemed, was more preoccupied with the upcoming party than with the threat of an invasion. An image shows Constanza Sofía Arangeren during her photo shoot outside Simón Bolivar’s birthplace.
No interviewees reported hoarding supplies; some felt no concern about an attack, while others simply couldn’t afford to prepare. Estefanie Mendoza, a 42-year-old social worker with two children, lamented, “In a normal country where there is a threat like this, the first thing people do is stock up on food, but we can’t do that.”
While Venezuela’s economy has seen some recovery since the severe crisis that sparked a migrant exodus in 2015, the rebound has been uneven. Mr. Trump and Mr. Rubio maintain that substantial amounts of cocaine pass through Venezuela and that their actions aim to reduce US overdoses. However, a 2020 US State Department report indicated that only 10% to 13% of the world’s cocaine supply transits through Venezuela. Fentanyl, a far deadlier drug responsible for more overdoses than cocaine, is almost exclusively produced in Mexico using chemicals from China, according to the US Drug Enforcement Administration. An image of Güiria, Venezuela, from 2020, highlights the uneven economic recovery.
The Trump administration reports that US forces have destroyed at least 17 lives aboard drug boats in the Caribbean. Legal experts have raised concerns, deeming it a crime to summarily kill civilians not directly involved in hostilities, even if suspected of drug smuggling.
In the state of Sucre, on Venezuela’s Caribbean coast, the first boat destroyed on September 2 is widely believed to have carried people from the towns of San Juan de Unare and Güiria, on the Paria Peninsula. For years, this area has been a hub for cocaine trafficking, according to Venezuelan journalist Ronna Rísquez’s field research. However, the region also sees the departure of migrants, trafficking victims, and government-subsidized Venezuelan gasoline, which can be sold at a higher price just six miles away in Trinidad and Tobago.
One woman, identifying herself as the wife of a deceased man from the incident, recounted how her fisherman husband, a father of four, left for work one day and never returned. Many Venezuelans now fear that US military action will only bring further loss. They also express doubts that Ms. Machado, currently in hiding in Venezuela, and Mr. González, in exile in Spain, could guarantee their safety. Opposition politician Henrique Capriles, a critic of Ms. Machado, scoffed at the idea of a successful US military intervention, asking, “Name one successful case in the last few years of a successful US military intervention?” He dismissed the notion of a bloodless US “extraction” of Mr. Maduro as pure fantasy, adding, “And the cost for us Venezuelans, what will it be? What guarantee do we have that this will translate into a recovery of our democracy?” An image shows Henrique Capriles during an interview, dismissing the idea of Maduro’s removal by the US as fantasy.
Nayrobis Rodríguez, Tibisay Romero, and Isayen Herrera contributed reporting.