In one vibrant corner of Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, hundreds of government loyalists, armed and resolute, gathered with passionate speakers urging them to defend their nation with their lives. Yet, elsewhere in the city, a palpable anxiety hangs in the air. Business leaders and foreign diplomats watch the escalating tensions between Venezuela and the United States with growing alarm, lamenting missed chances for diplomacy and fearing that any U.S. military action could plunge the nation into widespread violence and instability. Still, across other parts of Caracas, a battle-weary calm prevails, coupled with a deep skepticism that genuine political change will ever truly arrive.
A busy street during rush hour in Caracas. Many believe the Trump administration’s true objective is the removal of Mr. Maduro.
During a rare visit granted to foreign journalists, I spent a week in Venezuela at a particularly tense moment. Relations with the United States are at a critical juncture, with the Trump administration deploying warships to the Caribbean. The sheer scale of this military buildup, combined with President Trump’s public threats against President Nicolás Maduro, has ignited fears of potential U.S. strikes, commando raids, or even a broader conflict across the South American nation.
President Trump has openly stated his intent to deploy military force against cartels and stem the flow of drugs into the United States. His administration has controversially labeled Mr. Maduro as the head of a terrorist organization, accusing him of threatening U.S. national security and inundating the country with illicit drugs.
The U.S. reports having destroyed at least three drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean, with at least two originating from Venezuela. This marks a significant escalation in the pressure tactics reminiscent of those applied to Mexico regarding fentanyl. However, while some illegal narcotics do pass through Venezuela, fentanyl is notably absent from these routes. Furthermore, the volume of cocaine from Venezuela constitutes a mere fraction of the overall trade, significantly less than that originating from Colombia and exiting through its borders and Ecuador, according to official U.S. government data. This discrepancy leads many observers to conclude that the Trump administration’s primary target is, in fact, Mr. Maduro himself.
In conversations, some Venezuelans voiced support for any intervention that would lead to the ouster of Mr. Maduro, who faces accusations of severe human rights violations and whose government has ruled for a generation.
Members of the Bolivarian militia during a rally this month.
The faction advocating for military action is led by opposition figure Maria Corina Machado. Her supporters argue that removing Mr. Maduro would uphold the integrity of last year’s presidential election, a vote widely believed to have been lost by Maduro. Independent monitors and several international bodies, including the United States, recognized Mr. Maduro’s opponent, Edmundo González (a stand-in for Ms. Machado), as the rightful winner. Pedro Urruchurtu, an adviser to Ms. Machado, confirmed her coordination with the Trump administration, detailing a plan for the first 100 hours post-Maduro, which would involve international allies, especially the U.S., to ensure a stable transition to Mr. González.
However, many other Venezuelans interviewed were far less enthusiastic about U.S. involvement. Even those who desired Mr. Maduro’s departure, convinced he clung to power through repression, expressed concern that a violent U.S. intervention was not the answer. Many chose to speak anonymously, fearing repercussions.
Some questioned the U.S.’s commitment to maintaining a substantial troop presence to ensure the stability of any U.S.-backed government. Three diplomats noted a lack of indications that Mr. Maduro’s inner circle would defect to an opposition leader, or that the military would turn against him. Other Venezuelans warned that ousting Mr. Maduro might merely ignite a brutal power struggle among the remaining armed factions—the military, Colombian guerrilla groups, and paramilitary gangs—vying for control of the country’s vast resources. With Venezuela’s rich deposits of oil, gold, and other minerals, there are indeed many spoils to fight over. “You kill Maduro,” remarked one prominent businessman, “you turn Venezuela into Haiti,” referencing the chaos that engulfed Haiti after its last president’s assassination.
Vladimir Padrino López, the minister of defense, speaking to members of the Bolivarian militia in Caracas.
Skeptics further argued that Mr. Trump’s willingness for military engagement was low, and that his ‘gunboat diplomacy,’ spearheaded by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would only alienate Venezuela further, pushing it closer to strategic alliances with China, Russia, and Iran.
In response to Washington’s heightened activity, Mr. Maduro has mobilized civilians, paraded tanks through the streets, and announced nationwide military exercises, all widely broadcast on state media and social networks. Despite these displays, his advisors insist that their core message to Washington is one of peace, not war. This month, the Venezuelan president even sent a letter to Mr. Trump, commending his efforts to resolve other global conflicts and expressing openness to a “direct and frank conversation” with Mr. Trump’s special envoy for Venezuela, Richard Grenell.
Earlier this year, Mr. Grenell had appeared to seek improved relations, visiting Venezuela to meet Mr. Maduro shortly after Mr. Trump took office. More recently, however, Mr. Trump seems to have embraced Mr. Rubio’s more aggressive stance.
Militia members during a rally this month in Caracas.
In an interview from her office in the oil ministry, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez asserted her belief that Mr. Trump was steering the world into a new era where “the United States has openly declared war on the world.” She declared, “The Ministry of Defense is no longer Defense; it’s the Ministry of War. Trade relations are no longer trade relations; they are a trade war.” She condemned the boat attacks as “absolutely illegal” and called for the normalization of economic relations with the United States, which has imposed severe sanctions on Venezuela’s critical oil industry. “The people of the United States do not want war in the Caribbean,” she stressed.
Delcy Rodríguez after an interview on Friday.
Despite the escalating tensions, Venezuela has continued to accept twice-weekly flights of deportees from the United States, as confirmed by Foreign Minister Yván Gil.
Several diplomats and business leaders in Caracas voiced hopes for a return to diplomatic engagement by the United States. They believe sustained negotiations could eventually convince Mr. Maduro to cede power to a reformist successor or a moderate opposition figure, in exchange for sanctions relief and other concessions. They acknowledge that he is weary but cannot step down if he fears arrest, especially given the drug conspiracy charges he faces in the United States. Mr. Maduro, 62, has governed Venezuela since 2013.
On the streets of Caracas, this national strain manifests in stark contrasts of war and peace. On a recent day, a downtown boulevard pulsed with a government-organized rally, attended by civilians and members of the Bolivarian militia, a reserve force. Several participants admitted they were government employees required to attend, handed unloaded guns, and hurried away as soon as the event concluded. Others, however, spoke of patriotism, vowing to defend Mr. Maduro and his movement. “If there is an invasion,” declared Marisol Amundaray, 50, “I will safeguard my children and head to the street with my rifle.”
In other city districts, life unfolded normally. Near the presidential palace one morning, Constanza Sofía Arangeren gracefully twirled in a gold ball gown for her 15th birthday photoshoot, her mother more preoccupied with party preparations than any looming invasion.
Carrying a gun and a medal of bravery that was awarded by the defense minister.
A militia member during a rally this month.
Constanza Sofía Arangeren during a photo shoot for her 15th birthday, outside the home where Simón Bolivar, an independence hero, was born.
No one interviewed reported hoarding supplies; some were unconcerned by the threat, while others simply couldn’t afford to prepare. “In a normal country with a threat like this, people stock up on food,” explained Estefanie Mendoza, 42, a social worker with two children, “but we can’t do that.”
While Venezuela’s economy has seen some recovery after a prolonged crisis that sparked a massive migrant exodus, the rebound remains uneven. Mr. Trump and Mr. Rubio maintain that significant cocaine traffic through Venezuela contributes to U.S. overdoses. However, a 2020 U.S. State Department report indicated that only 10% to 13% of the global cocaine supply passes through Venezuela. Fentanyl, a far greater cause of overdoses than cocaine, is almost exclusively produced in Mexico using Chinese-imported chemicals, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.
The U.S. forces’ bombing of boats in the Caribbean has resulted in at least 17 fatalities, as confirmed by the Trump administration. Legal experts have raised concerns, deeming it a potential crime to summarily kill civilians not directly engaged in hostilities, even if suspected of drug smuggling. In Venezuela’s Sucre state, on the Caribbean coast, the first vessel destroyed on September 2 is widely believed to have carried people from San Juan de Unare and Güiria, on the Paria Peninsula—a region long recognized for cocaine trafficking, according to journalist Ronna Rísquez, who conducted fieldwork there.
Güiria, Venezuela, in 2020. While the country’s economy has recovered somewhat since a protracted crisis that started in 2015, the rebound has been uneven.
However, Rísquez noted that the area is also a departure point for migrants, trafficking victims, and government-subsidized Venezuelan gasoline, which fetches a higher price in nearby Trinidad and Tobago, just six miles away. One woman, identifying herself as the wife of a deceased man, recounted her husband, a fisherman with four children, leaving for work one day and never returning.
Some Venezuelans fear that U.S. military action would only bring further tragedy. They also expressed doubt that Ms. Machado, reportedly in hiding, and Mr. González, exiled in Spain, could ensure their security. Henrique Capriles, an opposition politician at odds with Ms. Machado, dismissed the idea of a bloodless U.S. “extraction” of Mr. Maduro as “Netflix fantasy,” not reality. He questioned, “And the cost for us Venezuelans, what will it be? What guarantee do we have that this will translate into a recovery of our democracy?”
Henrique Capriles, an opposition politician, during an interview this month. He dismissed as fantasy the notion that the United States would remove Mr. Maduro.
Nayrobis Rodríguez, Tibisay Romero, and Isayen Herrera contributed to this report.