President Trump’s intentions for Venezuela have long been shrouded in mystery, but President Nicolás Maduro is undoubtedly feeling the pressure.
The U.S. military has deployed warships, surveillance aircraft, and an attack submarine to the Caribbean. It has also reportedly destroyed Venezuelan boats, alleging they were involved in drug smuggling—claims for which no evidence has been publicly presented—resulting in 17 fatalities. The administration has publicly branded Maduro a cartel leader and an ‘American fugitive.’ This has led some current and former U.S. officials to believe that the unspoken objective is to remove him from power.
In essence, the goal appears to be regime change.
This aggressive stance seems to contradict Trump’s campaign promise to avoid foreign conflicts. However, my colleague Julie Turkewitz, who has extensive experience covering the region and recently spent a week in Venezuela, shared with me that Trump may not perceive the situation in these traditional ‘foreign war’ terms. You can review our full conversation for more details.
Maduro’s future hinges on how the Trump administration ultimately classifies its efforts in Venezuela: as a ‘foreign war’ to be avoided, or as a necessary operation to safeguard American interests in its immediate vicinity.
‘You turn Venezuela into Haiti’
Many Venezuelans would gladly see Maduro deposed. He faces accusations of severe human rights abuses, including torture and forced disappearances. Despite losing the 2024 election, according to independent monitors, he clung to power. Recently, opposition leader María Corina Machado expressed openness to U.S. military assistance in ousting him.
However, during her time in Venezuela, Julie encountered many who did not share this view. In a region with a history of U.S. military intervention and support for authoritarian regimes, there is a profound resistance to the idea of American-imposed change.
Local diplomats and business leaders caution that military intervention could lead to widespread violence and anarchy. Should the government collapse, various armed factions—including the military, Colombian guerrilla groups, and paramilitary gangs—could vie for control of Venezuela’s vast resources, such as oil, gold, and other minerals, as Julie highlighted.
As one businessman starkly put it, “You kill Maduro, you turn Venezuela into Haiti.”
After prolonged wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the phrase ‘America and regime change’ triggers deep apprehension both domestically and abroad. Venezuela’s government may be using this sentiment to its advantage, with its vice president reportedly telling Julie that the American populace ‘does not want war in the Caribbean.’
Sphere of influence?
During his presidential campaign, Trump pledged to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars.
However, he also campaigned on a platform of deporting undocumented immigrants back to Latin America and aggressively combating drug smuggling. He also gained support among Hispanic voters who strongly oppose socialist governments, such as those in Venezuela and its ally, Cuba.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has consistently advocated for regime change in Venezuela. He stated on Fox News, “We’re not going to have a cartel, operating or masquerading as a government, operating in our own hemisphere.”
This emphasis on America’s ‘own hemisphere’ suggests that administration officials view Venezuela differently than more distant conflicts like Ukraine or Iraq, Julie observed. They may consider Venezuela a nation directly impacting their key priorities, situated in close proximity—a country within America’s traditional sphere of influence.
The substantial military buildup off the coast of Venezuela, while noteworthy, is merely one illustration of the Trump administration’s interventionist stance in Latin America. It has issued threats regarding the Panama Canal and potential airstrikes on Mexican drug labs. The administration has actively engaged in Brazilian domestic politics, supporting former President Jair Bolsonaro. Last week, it extended a $20 billion loan to bolster the political standing of Argentina’s President Javier Milei.
Some of these actions appear to stem from shared ideological views: Trump aligns with Bolsonaro and Milei, and sees Maduro as an adversary. However, an aggressive focus on America’s ‘backyard’ might soon become official U.S. policy. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly preparing to unveil a new national defense strategy that prioritizes ‘protecting the homeland and the Western Hemisphere.’
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ASK A CORRESPONDENT
My colleague, Peter Baker, has extensively covered U.S. presidents since Bill Clinton. If you have any questions for Peter regarding his experiences covering Trump, or about the evolving nature of America’s role in the world, please submit them through our form.
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Trump is scheduled to meet with congressional leaders today, just one day before the deadline to prevent a U.S. government shutdown.
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A pivotal election in Moldova will determine whether the nation aligns itself more closely with the E.U. or with Russia.
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Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, is expected to travel to Cairo in the coming days for discussions regarding the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
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Tragically, at least 38 people were killed in a stampede at a political rally held in southern India.
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Rugby: England’s women’s team triumphed over Canada to claim the Rugby World Cup title.
SENTENCE OF THE DAY
“For years, I have brushed my teeth with a little too much gusto — as if I were scrubbing barnacles off a ship’s hull.”
— Jancee Dunn, my colleague at the Well newsletter, who recently shared her journey to improve her gum health.
MORNING READ
Kyiv’s Fashion Week has made its return. However, fashion, like all aspects of life in Ukraine, now bears the undeniable imprint of the ongoing war.
Some designers featured models who had lost limbs, reflecting the country’s many injured soldiers and civilians. This movement focuses on creating adaptive clothing with features like zippers, snaps, Velcro, and flexible waistlines. Dmytro Tereshchenko, a 21-year-old former soldier who began modeling after losing his leg, noted, “It sends out a big message.”
AROUND THE WORLD
What they’re chanting in … Turkey
By Safak Timur
I’m a reporter based in Istanbul.
Manifest, a vibrant Turkish girl group known for their lively dance moves and songs about love, released a catchy new single called “Ariyo” in April. That’s when things took a more serious turn.
Fans quickly discovered that the song’s chorus perfectly aligned with the anti-government protest chant “Hak! Hukuk! Adalet!” (“Rights! Law! Justice!”), a slogan popularized during recent mass demonstrations against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government. Soon, concert audiences were enthusiastically chanting along.
In response, the government launched an investigation into Manifest for public indecency. An adviser to Erdogan publicly condemned the band members as “immoral, indecent, shameless creatures.” Judges subsequently banned them from leaving the country and restricted access to some of their concert videos.
Despite the pressure, Manifest has cancelled its nationwide tour but remains undeterred, with new music reportedly on the horizon.
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Where is this?
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Bucharest
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TIME TO PLAY
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