Ukraine is gearing up for another round of peace talks as early as next week. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials report that the Trump administration is significantly increasing pressure on them to make concessions to Russia, aiming to bring the war to a close by early summer.
Despite these diplomatic pushes, both Ukrainian officials and independent analysts observe no indication that Russia is ready to de-escalate. Moscow continues its advances on the battlefield, albeit at a slow pace, and appears to have ample resources to sustain its war efforts.
As the United States pushes forward with these negotiations, Ukraine faces a delicate balancing act: meeting American expectations while firmly resisting concessions on critical issues like territory and self-governance. President Volodymyr Zelensky has openly voiced frustration, feeling that Washington is exerting more pressure on Kyiv to compromise than on Moscow. Nonetheless, he acknowledges the necessity of maintaining the Trump administration’s involvement in the peace process.
Last week, Zelensky revealed his belief that the US desire for a June ceasefire is driven by its own political timeline. He suggested that as American midterm elections approach, the Trump administration’s focus on Ukraine might wane.
“Of course, it is desirable for us that the Americans do not leave,” Zelensky stated regarding the peace talks. Referencing the June deadline set by the United States, he added that the Trump administration was “likely to put pressure on the parties according to that timeline.”
This week, Zelensky announced that Ukraine plans to send a delegation for talks next week in Florida. However, it remains unknown whether Russia will participate. The two sides previously met this month in the United Arab Emirates, alongside an American delegation, making little discernible progress toward peace.
The extent of US actions if Ukraine fails to meet its demands on territory and elections remains unclear. President Trump has explicitly stated his desire to take credit for ending the war, and previous deadlines set by his administration have passed without major repercussions. American officials continue to engage in the talks even as Ukraine pushes back against initial Russia-friendly proposals from the United States.
Zelensky confirmed he has received no signals that the United States plans to withdraw. However, Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a member of Ukraine’s Parliament, indicated that the Trump administration had threatened to exit the negotiating process if Ukraine was unwilling to compromise, including on the matter of holding elections.
According to Yurchyshyn, who cited information received in Parliament, during this month’s peace talks in the Emirates, the United States urged Ukraine to hold elections by May 15. With the war still raging, he noted, it is highly improbable that Ukraine could organize elections so soon.
The US push for elections aligns with Russia’s demands. President Vladimir V. Putin has claimed Zelensky has lost legitimacy by being “afraid to run in a presidential election,” deeming any deal with him “pointless.”
Elections in Ukraine have been suspended under martial law since the war began in February 2022. Public opinion polls indicate very little support for resuming elections until the fighting ceases and safe voting conditions can be guaranteed.
Nonetheless, some opposition figures suggest that Zelensky might be open to early elections, potentially giving him an advantage over less prepared rivals.
Zelensky has asked Parliament to draft legislation for wartime elections, and a working group is set to develop a preliminary plan in the coming weeks, a senior Ukrainian lawmaker confirmed Thursday.
Regardless of any concessions, Ukraine insists it cannot finalize a deal with Moscow without robust security guarantees from its Western allies to prevent future Russian invasions.
The exact nature of these security guarantees remains undefined, despite years of discussions and heightened diplomatic activity since Trump took office.
American and Ukrainian leaders have repeatedly stated that significant progress has been made on security guarantees, and a document is nearly ready for signing. Recent discussions reportedly focused on technical details, such as sequencing responses to ceasefire violations, leaving major questions unresolved that Ukraine requires answers to before agreeing to concessions to Russia.
Many in Kyiv, however, remain skeptical, suspecting that Putin will reject any agreement that includes security guarantees strong enough to satisfy Ukraine.
“We want the war to end in a way that satisfies the U.S. and the Ukrainian people,” Zelensky stated. “Even compromises must be fair,” he added, expressing a strong desire to “sign security guarantees first and then sign other documents.”
One of the most contentious points in negotiations is territorial integrity. The United States is pressing Kyiv to make concessions regarding the eastern Ukrainian region known as the Donbas. Zelensky revealed last week that Putin had directly asked Trump to cede the territory. Describing Putin’s request, Zelensky summarized it as: “Likely something like: Give me all of Donbas, and I’ll end the war. That’s the short version.”
Zelensky further noted that the United States had again proposed Ukraine withdraw from the part of Donbas it still controls, suggesting the area be transformed into a “free economic zone.”
However, “neither Ukraine nor Russia has ever been enthusiastic about the idea,” Zelensky emphasized. He reiterated Ukraine’s longstanding proposal for both armies to withdraw an equal distance from the front line.
Under any proposal for Ukraine to completely withdraw from the Donbas, it remains ambiguous whether the territory would be overseen and administered by Russian or international authorities.
Despite ongoing peace talks, all indications point to the Russian Army “preparing to continue fighting,” Zelensky warned. Ukrainian intelligence reports suggest Russia is escalating its weapons production.
Historically, Russia has launched major offensives in the spring. It is anticipated to do so again this year, aiming to seize more territory and increase its leverage at the negotiating table with Ukraine.
“Russia will only consider freezing the conflict once it clearly loses its economic and military resource advantages required to wage war,” commented Mykhailo Samus, director of the independent New Geopolitics Research Network in Kyiv.
“Therefore, instead of relying on fantasies, restrictions on Russian oil should be tightened, and air defense systems should be supplied to Ukraine,” he asserted, concluding, “In diplomacy, I see zero signs of progress.”
Russian oil revenues, a primary driver of its war machine, have fallen significantly, partly due to Trump administration sanctions. Furthermore, Moscow is now recruiting fewer men into its military than it is losing in Ukraine, according to Western estimates.
Yet, Russia’s assaults on Ukraine persist relentlessly. Civilian casualties increased throughout 2025, as reported by the Conflict Intelligence Team, a research group that analyzes the war using publicly available information.
On social media, Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer whose Center for Civil Liberties received a Nobel Peace Prize, posed a question echoing the concerns of many Ukrainians observing the peace talks: “Why has Trump’s year of negotiations been the deadliest for civilians in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion?”