Digging deep into a field in northwestern China, archaeologists recently uncovered chariot tracks, plumbing, and the remnants of an elaborate city gate dating back more than 3,000 years — all traces of an early Chinese dynasty that has been celebrated by Confucian scholars, and also by the Communist Party, as a model of political and social harmony.
The discoveries suggest that the area now farmland west of Xi’an, in Shaanxi Province, is part of the long-vanished capital of the Western Zhou, a dynasty exalted throughout Chinese history as the pinnacle of good governance. This location, southwest of Beijing, highlights the strategic importance of the region.
The ongoing excavation work has also shed new light on a crucial historical question: If this ancient dynasty was so perfect, why did it ultimately crumble in chaos, unable to withstand external and internal threats? The Western Zhou, despite lasting nearly 300 years, fell apart in 771 B.C. under pressure from “barbarian” invaders and estranged former allies.
The preoccupation with why seemingly robust political systems collapse has long captivated China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, especially since the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union. As an avid enthusiast of ancient history and archaeology, he visited a museum in Baoji, Shaanxi, in 2024, where he examined ancient bronzes from the Western Zhou dynasty. Among them was a significant piece inscribed with “zhongguo,” meaning “middle kingdom” — the earliest known written record of China’s name.
Bronzes from the Western Zhou dynasty at the Zhouyuan Museum, near the excavation site in Shaanxi.
Traditionally, the downfall of the Western Zhou has been attributed to a beautiful woman. Sima Qian, often regarded as the father of Chinese history, famously documented in the first century B.C. that the dynasty unraveled because its ruler, King You, was bewitched and led astray by this enchanting figure.
However, recent archaeological and other compelling evidence has thoroughly debunked this simplistic reading of dynastic decline as a mere morality play. Instead, the new findings underscore the profound frailties of a rigidly hierarchical political system that had grown brittle over time, ultimately unable to withstand severe disruptions caused by rapid climate change and deep-seated internal division.
Chong Jianrong, the director of the Shaanxi Institute of Archaeology, who has dedicated decades to tracing the rise and fall of the Western Zhou, asserts that the woman often blamed for the dynasty’s demise — a concubine named Bao Si — was “just a scapegoat,” a convenient figure to explain the ruin of a supposedly golden age.
Echoing this sentiment, Edward L. Shaughnessy, a leading American authority on ancient China, stated that Bao Si’s supposed role in the dynasty’s end “is of course just a fairy tale,” likely fabricated as part of “some sort of factional strife at the Zhou court.”
Artist imaginings of Bao Si, left, and King You. The Bao Si drawing is from the 18th century, that of King You is undated.
Celebrated by Confucius and his followers as an exemplary era undone by lust, the Western Zhou dynasty produced many of the core concepts of Chinese civilization, including the influential “mandate of heaven.” This concept posits that a ruler holds power by virtue of good governance and loses it through immoral misbehavior.
Yet, Mr. Chong firmly maintains that the fall of Western Zhou “is not about a beautiful woman causing trouble.”
A recent study led by Chinese scientists in Beijing has now offered what many historians consider a more plausible theory. Drawing on evidence collected from stalagmites, the research attributed the dynasty’s demise to rapid climate change. Drought and unusual cold, triggered by a sudden climatic shift 2,800 years ago — immediately preceding the Western Zhou’s collapse — played a “critical role,” according to findings published in Communications Earth & Environment, a sister publication to the British scientific journal Nature.
Furthermore, a separate study, which meticulously analyzed ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica to construct a chronology of volcanic activity over two millennia, revealed a striking pattern: 62 of 68 Chinese dynastic houses during that period fell after one or more volcanic eruptions. Such eruptions are recognized as a major cause of short-term climatic shocks throughout history.
Chong Jianrong, the party secretary and director of the Shaanxi Institute of Archaeology, at his office in Xi’an.
Francis Ludlow, an associate professor of medieval environment history at Trinity College, Dublin, who collaborated on the research with Chinese and other scholars, expressed his surprise in a telephone interview at the strong correlation between volcanic activity and dynastic decline. He noted, “There were way too many eruptions just before collapse dates to be just random coincidences.”
Professor Shaughnessy also shared his long-held belief that climactic events preceding the Western Zhou’s collapse “probably contributed to the fall, but there were many other reasons for it as well.”
Volcanoes release aerosol particles that diminish sunlight, leading to significant disruptions in agriculture thousands of miles away. However, whether an eruption “tips a dynasty over the edge,” as Mr. Ludlow explained, is heavily dependent on the existing levels of warfare and instability within society at that time.
“Our most interesting finding,” he elaborated, “is not that volcanoes are implicated in dynastic change but that the impact of climatic shock depends on how stable a society was in the lead up to that shock.”
Mr. Chong, the archaeology institute director, further emphasized that the Western Zhou’s own “internal and external contradictions” were central to its downfall.
Left: Yan Yongqiang, a researcher, makes a presentation on the importance of the Zhouyuan site to the Western Zhou civilization. Right: Local farmers and researchers excavate a city gate site in Baoji.
These contradictions included a steady weakening of the royal court’s control over regional rulers, as ties of blood to the center were gradually diluted over time. Additionally, there was a growing conflict with rival “barbarian” powers to the northwest and southeast.
For centuries, Chinese scholars have grappled with the apparent paradox of the Western Zhou’s sudden collapse, especially given the glowing praise it received from Confucius. “If the Western Zhou dynasty was so perfect an age of good politics and institutions as Confucius tended to suggest, then why had it to fall, and to give rise to a time of political disorder and moral decline?” questioned Li Feng, a professor of early Chinese history at Columbia University, in his 2006 book.
Yan Yongqian, a young archaeologist currently part of the team excavating what is believed to be a side gate to the Western Zhou capital, revealed that the excavation work has brought to light evidence of the dynasty’s highly stratified and sophisticated society, as well as its darker aspects, including practices of human sacrifice.
The collapse of the Western Zhou, Mr. Yan noted, appears to have been a swift event, rapidly accelerated by military attacks from external forces against defenses already weakened by internal discord. Earlier rounds of excavation unearthed the remains of burned ancient buildings, strongly suggesting a violent end.
“The fall of this state was likely a very sudden event,” Mr. Yan stated. He added that whether Bao Si, the beautiful consort who, according to ancient legend, was conceived from dragon spittle, actually existed is unclear, and even if she did, “a single person cannot destroy a dynasty.”
Yan Yongqiang, a researcher at the Shaanxi Institute of Archaeology, overlooking his city gate excavation site.
Since Sima Qian penned “Historical Records,” each subsequent Chinese dynasty has traditionally commissioned an official history of its predecessor. These histories often enumerated purported moral and other failings that supposedly led to its demise.
However, despite being widely dismissed by modern scholars as mere fairy tales, stories about the Western Zhou king’s dynasty-destroying infatuation with Bao Si still occasionally overshadow other explanations. At a museum near the excavation site, which showcases the Western Zhou’s cultural achievements and its abrupt end, exhibits still recount how the king struggled with natural disasters and other significant problems, but ultimately lost power largely due to his wayward love life.
The popular story narrates that to entertain Bao Si, who was renowned for her exquisite but unsmiling beauty, the king would light beacon fires intended for summoning help in emergencies. This reckless stunt, it is said, cost him his life and kingdom when a genuine attack arrived in 771 B.C.
Nevertheless, the very existence of such beacons is debated, and Mr. Yan, the archaeologist, believes the story was likely fabricated to demonize Bao Si and obscure the dynasty’s real, systemic problems.
Mr. Chong, the Shaanxi province archaeology institute director, pointedly remarked, “When things go wrong you have to find someone to take responsibility,” adding that in China’s historically patriarchal society, that person “is always a woman.” He concluded, “The real collapse of a society is caused by the system and its mechanisms.”
Li You contributed research.
A correction was made on Feb. 14, 2026: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated the Western Zhou dynasty’s duration. It reigned for nearly 300 years, not 800.
Andrew Higgins, The Times’ East and Central Europe bureau chief based in Warsaw, was on temporary assignment in Shanghai for this report.