As winter approaches, federal forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center have released their latest outlook, suggesting a warmer and drier season than usual for much of the southern U.S. In contrast, the Northwest may experience a cooler, wetter winter.
For residents in parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, temperatures could lean warmer than average. However, large sections of these regions remain uncertain, with equal chances for above, near, or below-normal conditions, depending on how regional weather patterns develop.
Here’s a breakdown of the winter forecast for specific regions:
Accurately predicting weather patterns beyond a week remains a challenge. These seasonal forecasts don’t offer precise snowfall or rainfall amounts; instead, they provide a probabilistic overview, indicating the likelihood of various temperature and precipitation outcomes.
Several elements inform these long-range winter forecasts, including established climate trends, sophisticated computer models, and other prevailing atmospheric patterns. However, this particular outlook is significantly shaped by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO describes fluctuations in sea surface temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific, with three distinct phases: La Niña (cooler-than-average temperatures), El Niño (warmer-than-average), and a neutral phase.
NOAA meteorologists anticipate that this winter’s weather will be largely influenced by La Niña conditions. This implies that cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are expected to exert a considerable influence on weather across the entire nation. Meteorologist Bob Henson of Yale Climate Connections described this year’s forecast as a ‘classic La Niña pattern,’ noting that while northern regions typically see cooler winters and southern areas experience milder ones, La Niña conditions tend to amplify these natural tendencies.
Here is a summary of the Climate Prediction Center’s winter weather trends across the continental United States.
Midwest
The Midwest typically endures very cold, often frigid, winters. This year, the upper Midwest, including North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, is likely to experience colder and snowier conditions than usual. Nebraska is also expected to be colder. For much of the remaining Midwest, there’s an equal chance for temperatures and precipitation to be above, near, or below normal.
Great Lakes
Forecasters predict wetter-than-average conditions for all states surrounding the Great Lakes, with eastern Illinois, Indiana, and western Ohio being particularly susceptible to increased precipitation.
Northern Michigan might see cooler-than-normal temperatures, while a large portion of the wider Great Lakes region has an equal chance for various temperature outcomes.
California
Seasonal forecasts often have varying reliability depending on the region, and historically, predictions for California have been less certain, according to Jeanine Jones, the interstate resources manager for the California Department of Water Resources.
This winter, Southern California is expected to be warm and dry, a trend often associated with La Niña. However, Ms. Jones reminds us that ‘a couple of the top 10 wettest years in Southern California were actually La Niña years,’ highlighting that such patterns aren’t absolute.
A milder, drier winter could escalate wildfire risks and intensify existing drought conditions across the state.
Northwest
The Northwest typically experiences cooler and wetter winters. This year, Washington, northern Idaho, and Montana have higher odds for below-normal temperatures. The entire region is expected to be wetter than average, particularly a significant portion of Montana.
New England
The Climate Prediction Center noted no strong, clear signal for specific weather trends across most of New England. Consequently, the region faces an equal chance for above, near, or below-normal precipitation. Similarly, northern New England’s temperatures could vary widely, though Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island have a slight chance for warmer-than-usual weather.
New England is renowned for its snow. While wet patterns often arise from Atlantic Ocean storms, cold air intrusions from Canada can lead to drier conditions. Such short-term systems are difficult to forecast several months in advance.
Mid-Atlantic
The forecast signal for much of the Mid-Atlantic also appears weak. However, southeastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., have a possibility of above-normal temperatures.
Western Virginia is leaning towards above-normal precipitation, but the winter precipitation outlook for the rest of the Mid-Atlantic, including New York, remains uncertain.
Southwest
There’s a high probability of above-normal temperatures across the Southwest, especially in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and far West Texas.
Arizona, New Mexico, and most of Texas are at an elevated risk of an unusually dry winter, and NOAA anticipates that existing drought conditions will continue across the region.
Southeast
Florida typically enjoys mild, sunny winters with occasional cold snaps. This year, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts a warm and mostly dry winter for the state.
Throughout the rest of the Southeast, warmer and drier conditions are favored along the Gulf Coast, encompassing southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The Carolinas also show a lean toward above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.
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