PARIS: The United Nations revealed on Tuesday that global pledges to cut carbon emissions are woefully insufficient, projecting merely a 10% reduction by 2035. This grim assessment comes as most nations failed to submit their climate action plans on time, hindering a comprehensive global overview.
Just days before the crucial COP30 climate talks in Brazil, UN Climate Change released an emissions calculation alongside its official review of national 2035 commitments. This supplementary analysis included key data from major emitters like China and the European Union, who have yet to submit their full, updated pledges.
Last week, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the sluggish progress from nations makes it “inevitable” that the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius will fail in the near term. This would lead to devastating impacts during a temporary “overshoot” period before temperatures could potentially be pulled back down by the century’s end.
Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, noted that the projected 10% emissions cut indicates “humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough.”
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes that a 60% reduction in emissions by 2035 (from 2019 levels) is necessary to have a good chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which is the more ambitious target of the Paris Agreement.
Stiell further stated, “The science is equally clear that temperatures absolutely can and must be brought back down to 1.5C as quickly as possible after any temporary overshoot, by substantially stepping up the pace on all fronts.”
A “Limited Picture”
The upcoming two-week COP30 climate negotiations, commencing November 10 in the Amazon, aim to energize global efforts amidst a challenging landscape. Factors include a less-than-supportive United States, ongoing geopolitical tensions, pressing economic concerns, and growing fears that ambitious climate targets are already becoming unattainable.
The landmark 2015 Paris Agreement established a goal to keep global warming significantly below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), ideally aiming for 1.5 degrees Celsius.
With global average warming already hovering around 1.4 degrees Celsius, many scientists anticipate that the 1.5-degree threshold will likely be surpassed before the close of this decade, as humanity continues its reliance on fossil fuels—oil, gas, and coal.
However, experts underscore that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided remains critically important in mitigating the severity of climate change impacts.
Should temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, scientists suggest that humanity would likely need to employ advanced technologies to actively remove carbon from the atmosphere, methods that are not yet widely operational.
Under the terms of the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit increasingly ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years, with plans extending to 2035 due this year.
The UN reported on Tuesday that only 64 of the nearly 200 parties to the Paris Agreement had submitted their NDCs by the end of September deadline for the official annual report.
Consequently, Stiell admitted that the official document “provides quite a limited picture,” necessitating the UN to undertake a broader, more generalized calculation.
“This wider picture, though still incomplete, shows global emissions falling by around 10 percent by 2035,” he confirmed.
This estimate notably included the US submission made prior to Donald Trump’s return as US president in January.
Since then, Trump has declared his intention to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement for a second time, dismissed climate change as a “hoax,” and moved to restrict scientific research and data collection.
The calculation also factored in a commitment from China, the world’s largest polluter, to reduce emissions by 7-10 percent by 2035—marking its first absolute national target.
Additionally, the European Union’s “statement of intent” to cut emissions by 66.25 percent to 72.5 percent by 2035 compared to 1990 levels was included. This was announced in September amid internal disputes within the 27-nation bloc regarding its climate ambitions.
Stiell concluded with a clear message: “We are still in the race, but to ensure a livable planet for all eight billion people today, we must urgently pick up the pace, at COP30 and every year thereafter.”