For over a year, a discreet Czech-led initiative has served as an indispensable supply line, tirelessly scouring the globe for ammunition to arm Ukrainian forces. These vital artillery supplies have been a lifeline for a nation in desperate need.
However, the very secrecy that has made this program effective might now be its undoing. As the Czech Republic heads into parliamentary elections this week, a populist opposition party, Ano, is widely expected to emerge victorious. Its leaders have expressed strong intentions to either dismantle the ammunition program entirely or shift its operation to NATO control, aiming to redirect focus toward the country’s struggling economy.
Jaroslav Bzoch, a European Parliament member from the Ano party, noted the growing public unease. “Obviously people are getting more and more nervous,” he stated. His party has criticized the ammunition program for being not only overpriced but also excessively opaque, largely due to its reliance on shadowy business dealings.
This sentiment isn’t unique; other NATO nations have also adjusted their military spending, facing war-weary populations eager for a return to domestic priorities. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s survival hinges heavily on Western military aid, as Russia relentlessly pushes forward, attempting to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible.
An image shows a Ukrainian soldier near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, highlighting the country’s profound reliance on Western military support to counter the ongoing Russian invasion.
Despite public perception, officials and experts insist that the ammunition program, funded by billions in donations from NATO allies, imposes minimal financial burden on Czech taxpayers. Yet, the mere suggestion that it could further strain the economy resonates strongly with voters, many of whom, according to Mr. Bzoch, already view the initiative with skepticism.
(An image depicts Andrej Babis, leader of the right-wing populist Ano party, this month. His party has publicly criticized the ammunition program as overpriced and lacking transparency.)
Supporters of the ammunition program contend that Ano is exploiting public fatigue surrounding the conflict in Ukraine. Ales Vytecka, a senior official at the Czech Defense Ministry, emphasized the national security implications. He argued that aiding Ukraine is crucial “because it’s our national security interest” and should therefore retain public backing.
This pivotal Czech ammunition initiative began in early 2024, a critical time when Ukraine’s artillery, especially NATO-standard 155-millimeter shells for Western-donated guns, was alarmingly low. American military aid was stalled in Congress, and European arsenals were depleted after two years of continuous shipments to Ukraine, with production unable to meet the surging demand. Consequently, Russia was making significant advances, pushing back Ukrainian forces.
However, a hidden opportunity emerged. A considerable amount of artillery remained available globally, including in countries maintaining diplomatic, and even cordial, relations with Russia. Drawing on its history as a Soviet satellite state, the Czech Republic and its arms manufacturers leveraged existing contacts with Russia’s allies. They quietly probed for interest in selling ammunition destined for Ukraine.
These nations agreed, but on one crucial condition: their identities must remain undisclosed by the Czech government to shield them from Russia’s wrath. With this guarantee, the supply channels opened. Mr. Vytecka, who directs the Defense Ministry’s international cooperation agency, described the response: “the sources just started to be like wasps on the candy, just going after the sweet.”
Since its inception, NATO countries have contributed sufficient funds to acquire over 2.5 million rounds of ammunition exclusively from non-NATO nations. Sales are projected to rise this year, and donor nations within the alliance appear committed to continued funding.
(An image captures a trench in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine in July, a poignant reminder that the Czech initiative was launched in early 2024 when Ukraine’s ammunition supplies were critically low.)
This consistent influx of ammunition has been instrumental in allowing Ukraine to largely stabilize its defensive lines against Russian aggression. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky affirmed the program’s impact this month at an International Institute of Strategic Studies forum in Prague, stating, “Without the ammunition provided through this initiative, Ukraine would have already lost the Donbas,” referring to the heavily contested eastern Ukrainian territory.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has also lauded the Czech Republic’s “unique ammunition initiative” as an exemplary model of “essential” support for Ukraine.
Yet, the very secrecy vital to the program’s success has also fueled legislative scrutiny regarding its legitimacy. The precise origins of the ammunition remain publicly undisclosed. Jan Jires, a former senior official at the Czech Defense Ministry involved in the effort, confirmed that much of it was sourced from countries in Africa, Asia, and South America.
While officials have not specified the exact amount contributed by NATO allies, Mr. Jires estimated it to be several billion dollars. He noted that the Czech Republic’s direct financial contribution was relatively modest, with Prime Minister Petr Fiala announcing a figure of about $41 million in June 2024, mere months after the program’s launch.
Funds are channeled through Czech weapons manufacturers who maintain connections with global suppliers. Mr. Jires explained that these companies procure the ammunition, verify its functionality, and then arrange its shipment to Ukraine. Last year, concerns were raised by a Czech senator alleging that these companies were inflating artillery prices for excessive profit. The manufacturers vehemently denied the claims, and Mr. Vytecka stated that profits were modest, with Mr. Jires estimating a net profit margin of around 3 percent per sale.
Nevertheless, the Ano party continues to leverage the program’s opacity as a justification for its termination. “We don’t know how much we have to pay for it, or even if it’s going straight to Ukraine,” asserted Mr. Bzoch, the party’s foreign policy spokesperson.
While Ano’s leader, Andrej Babis, initially branded the program as “rotten” in July, the party’s stance has since softened. Mr. Bzoch now suggests placing the program under NATO headquarters in Brussels, believing this would ensure proper oversight.
(An image shows Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk in February, underscoring how the steady flow of ammunition has largely enabled Ukraine to hold its defensive lines against Russia.)
However, critics argue that such a move could severely undermine the program’s effectiveness. Identifying sellers could provoke Russia’s ire, creating a chilling effect. “The sensitivity of the way we are doing this, the mechanism that keeps the country not seen — that’s the whole point of it,” Mr. Vytecka emphasized.
Furthermore, acquiring matériel outside the alliance would require unanimous consent from NATO member states, a potentially cumbersome process. Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general and head of the Aerospace and Defense Industries Association in Europe, believes the current Czech-led model “is probably more agile and efficient.”
Without an initiative like the Czech program, Ukraine’s future ammunition supplies remain uncertain. While European manufacturers anticipate producing two million artillery rounds in 2025, not all will be allocated to Kyiv. Even if they were, this supply would barely last four months, given Ukraine’s estimated daily consumption of 15,000 rounds.
Experts suggest that Mr. Babis has successfully linked the ammunition program to growing public weariness with the Ukraine war and anxieties over rising domestic prices for essentials. A Russian-backed disinformation campaign, spread through social media and chain emails, may also be fueling anti-Ukraine sentiment.
Vit Dostal, a political analyst at the Association for International Affairs in Prague, noted that Mr. Babis’s core message is that “we pay way too much for the support of Ukraine, and others should do the job.” While “actually not true,” this narrative resonates deeply during challenging economic times.
However, recent Russian incursions into NATO airspace, with drones and fighter jets infringing on Polish, Romanian, and Estonian territory, could shift Czech election dynamics. Unsettled voters might pivot back to supporting the mainstream government. As Mr. Dostal put it, these incidents “signal some kind of an urgency of what is going on in Ukraine, that the war is close.”