For over a year, a discreet Czech-led initiative has been Ukraine’s lifeline, diligently sourcing artillery ammunition from across the globe to bolster its struggling forces.
However, the very secrecy that has made this program effective now threatens its existence.
This week’s parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic could spell the end for the program. A populist opposition party, currently leading in polls, has promised to either scrap the initiative entirely or hand it over to NATO, prioritizing the nation’s fragile economy.
Jaroslav Bzoch, an Ano party member of the European Parliament, noted the growing public anxiety over rising consumer prices. His party has publicly criticized the ammunition program, branding it as both overpriced and shrouded in suspicious business dealings.
Other NATO members have already adjusted their military spending, facing populations tired of war and eager to prioritize domestic issues. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s defense remains heavily reliant on Western aid, even as Russia continues its aggressive push to claim more Ukrainian territory.
[Image: A Ukrainian soldier near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, last year, highlighting the country’s dependence on Western military support.]
Despite assurances from officials and experts that the NATO-funded program costs Czech taxpayers minimal amounts, the perception that it strains the economy has resonated with voters who, according to Mr. Bzoch, already distrust the initiative.
[Image: Andrej Babis, leader of the populist Ano party, who has criticized the ammunition program.]
Supporters of the program argue that the Ano party is exploiting public weariness over the conflict in Ukraine for political gain.
Ales Vytecka, a senior official at the Czech Defense Ministry, stated, “People are getting tired, and it’s misused for the political campaign.” He emphasized that supporting Ukraine is crucial for their national security.
The Czech ammunition initiative launched in early 2024 amidst a critical shortage of artillery for Ukraine, especially the NATO-standard 155-millimeter shells needed for Western-donated heavy guns.
During that period, U.S. military aid to Ukraine was stalled in Congress, and European nations, having depleted their own stockpiles, struggled to rapidly increase ammunition production.
Concurrently, Russia was making significant advances, pushing back Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.
But there was more artillery available in the world — including from countries that have ongoing diplomatic or friendly ties with Russia. Leveraging its historical connections from its Soviet satellite era, the Czech Republic and its arms industry discreetly approached Russia’s allies, gauging their interest in selling ammunition destined for Ukraine.
These countries agreed, provided the Czech government guaranteed their anonymity to shield them from potential Russian backlash.
Mr. Vytecka, who directs the Defense Ministry’s international cooperation agency, likened the sudden availability of suppliers to “wasps on candy,” eager to participate once discretion was assured.
Since its inception, NATO nations have contributed billions, enabling the procurement of over 2.5 million rounds of ammunition from non-NATO sources. Sales are expected to rise this year, with allied donors seemingly committed to continued funding.
[Image: A trench in Ukraine’s Donetsk region in July, a symbol of the desperate need for ammunition that sparked the Czech initiative.]
This critical influx of ammunition has largely enabled Ukraine to maintain its defensive lines against Russian aggression.
Jan Lipavsky, the Czech foreign minister, asserted at a recent forum in Prague that “without the ammunition provided through this initiative, Ukraine would have already lost the Donbas,” referring to the eastern Ukrainian territory that has endured the most intense fighting of the war.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte hailed the Czech Republic’s “unique ammunition initiative” as a crucial example of indispensable support for Ukraine.
However, the very confidentiality integral to the program’s success has also fueled concerns among lawmakers regarding its accountability and legitimacy.
The exact origin of the ammunition remains undisclosed. Jan Jires, a former senior official at the Czech Defense Ministry involved in the effort, stated that most supplies were acquired from countries in Africa, Asia, and South America.
While the precise financial contributions from NATO allies are not public, Mr. Jires estimated them to be in the billions of dollars. He noted that the Czech Republic’s direct financial input was modest, with Prime Minister Petr Fiala stating in June 2024 that the country had provided approximately $41 million since the program’s inception.
Funds are channeled through Czech weapons manufacturers who maintain connections with international suppliers. These companies purchase the ammunition, verify its functionality, and arrange its shipment to Ukraine.
Last year, a Czech senator voiced worries that local companies involved in the program were inflating artillery prices for excessive profit. The accused weapons manufacturers refuted these claims. Mr. Vytecka stated that their profits were modest, while Mr. Jires estimated them at roughly 3 percent per sale.
However, the Ano party maintains that the program’s secrecy is grounds for its termination. Mr. Bzoch, the party’s foreign policy spokesperson, questioned the program’s costs and whether the ammunition reliably reaches Ukraine.
The Ano party’s stance has slightly softened since its leader, Andrej Babis, initially labeled the program “rotten” in July. Mr. Bzoch now proposes bringing the initiative under NATO headquarters’ oversight in Brussels to ensure proper management.
[Image: Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk in February, illustrating how the ammunition supply has helped hold the line against Russia.]
Critics warn that placing the program under NATO control could deter suppliers who fear being identified and incurring Russia’s wrath. Mr. Vytecka emphasized, “The sensitivity of the way we are doing this, the mechanism that keeps the country not seen — that’s the whole point of it.”
Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary general and current head of the Aerospace and Defense Industries Association in Europe, noted that NATO members would require unanimous agreement to source matériel externally. He suggested that the current Czech-led model is likely “more agile and efficient” in practice.
Without this unique Czech program, Ukraine’s ammunition supply faces a significant void. Although European production is ramping up, with an estimated two million artillery rounds expected in 2025, not all will reach Kyiv. Even if it did, at a daily expenditure of approximately 15,000 rounds (July estimates), this supply would last just over four months.
Experts suggest that Mr. Babis has successfully connected the ammunition program to public fatigue over the Ukraine war and anxieties about rising domestic prices for essential goods. Officials and analysts also suspect a Russian disinformation campaign is at work, spreading anti-Ukraine narratives via social media and chain emails.
Vit Dostal, a political analyst in Prague, explained that Mr. Babis’s platform argues Czechia overspends on Ukraine support and other nations should bear the burden. While Dostal stated this criticism “is actually not true,” he acknowledged it “resonates because this is a very difficult time with the economic situation.”
However, Dostal also suggested that recent Russian incursions into NATO airspace, including drones and fighter jets over Poland, Romania, and Estonia, could shift Czech election dynamics. Alarmed voters might pivot back to supporting the current mainstream government.
“It signals some kind of an urgency of what is going on in Ukraine, that the war is close,” Mr. Dostal concluded.