Ukraine has dramatically increased its attacks on Russian oil refineries in recent months, leading to a surge in fuel shortages and price increases across various regions of Russia. BBC Verify and BBC Russian have documented a significant rise in drone strikes targeting these critical energy infrastructure sites, with some attacks reaching deep into Russian territory.
Analysis of Russian media reports and verified footage reveals a substantial uptick in refinery attacks during August and September, surpassing previous records. These strikes are impacting Russia’s ability to produce and distribute essential fuels like petrol and diesel, with some reports indicating long queues at petrol stations and temporary suspensions of operations by garages unable to cope with supply issues.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that targeting Russia’s oil industry is a strategic move to pressure the Kremlin. He believes that disrupting these operations significantly hinders Russia’s capacity to fund and sustain its war efforts. The current campaign appears to be a calculated strategy, with Ukraine targeting both refineries crucial for civilian fuel supply and those closer to the front lines that may be supporting military logistics.
The impact on ordinary Russians is becoming increasingly apparent, with verified videos circulating that show extended queues at petrol stations. In some areas, particularly in Siberia, small and independent petrol stations have reportedly shut down due to persistent supply problems. Experts suggest this trend is exacerbating existing price pressures, which are typically influenced by seasonal refinery maintenance and increased summer travel demand.
While some regions, particularly in western Russia, seem largely unaffected, officials have acknowledged the situation and stated that measures are being taken to address the shortages. However, the effectiveness of these measures and the overall impact on Russia’s war economy remain subjects of ongoing analysis. The strategic targeting of oil infrastructure by Ukraine is seen by analysts as a key factor in applying economic pressure on Moscow.
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