Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had carefully prepared for his critical White House visit this past Friday.
For days, his primary message was clear: Kyiv desperately needed U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles to launch deep strikes into Russia. He gently pressed President Trump on the matter in two consecutive phone calls last weekend. Just before his arrival, his senior staff even met with the missile’s manufacturers in Washington.
However, upon Mr. Zelensky’s arrival, the situation had shifted dramatically. President Trump had recently spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who seemed to divert him from the missile sale and instead promote the idea of renewed peace talks, potentially leading to a direct meeting.
As Mr. Zelensky faced Mr. Trump on Friday, the American leader’s change of heart was undeniable. “Hopefully, we’ll be able to get the war over without thinking about Tomahawks,” Mr. Trump stated, adding that Mr. Putin “wants to make a deal.”
“It’s a déjà vu,” remarked Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, following Friday’s discussions. “Mr. Trump, once again, appears to have fallen for Putin’s familiar tactics.”
This sequence of events felt all too familiar to Ukrainians. For months, they’ve seen their attempts to garner support from the unpredictable American president repeatedly undermined by Russia’s persistent offers of more peace negotiations.
Ukrainians now fear they’ve lost the recent momentum they’d gained by leveraging Mr. Trump’s apparent frustration with Moscow’s reluctance to end the conflict. Instead of their desired approach — aggressive, long-range strikes against Russia to compel serious negotiations — Kyiv is once again caught in a cycle of discussions they believe have consistently proven fruitless.
This turn of events leaves Ukraine in a precarious situation, needing to await the outcome of the proposed Trump-Putin meeting before formulating its next steps. Should these talks prove unproductive, Kyiv will likely renew its efforts to persuade Mr. Trump to supply more weaponry.
Despite the challenges, Mr. Zelensky can draw some encouragement from Moscow’s openness to new peace discussions. This move validates his long-held belief that Russia only truly engages in negotiations under military pressure. “It highlights the strategic impact of the Tomahawk missiles,” observed Harry Nedelcu, a senior director at Rasmussen Global. “These weapons don’t necessarily need to be fired to be effective; their very existence can provoke a reaction from Putin. Clearly, this pressure is yielding results.”
Mr. Putin’s consent to another meeting with Mr. Trump could also grant Ukraine a temporary respite from Russian air assaults. Moscow will likely aim to project an image to Washington that it is willing to de-escalate. Kyiv urgently needs this break to repair its energy infrastructure, which has been severely damaged by weeks of relentless strikes. Widespread emergency blackouts have already affected the country, and experts fear the situation will deteriorate further as winter approaches.
Furthermore, a glimmer of potential common ground emerged when the International Atomic Energy Agency announced on Saturday that both Ukraine and Russia had agreed to a localized cease-fire near the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine. This truce will enable crucial repairs to the power lines supplying the facility, essential for cooling its reactors. The plant had been relying solely on backup diesel power for an entire month, having lost its external electricity supply.
The critical question remains whether Mr. Putin will approach his upcoming meeting with Mr. Trump, tentatively set for Budapest in the coming weeks, with genuine intent to negotiate.
Mr. Merezhko, the Ukrainian lawmaker, expressed his skepticism, suggesting that Mr. Putin would likely attempt to “deceive Trump again” if the Budapest meeting actually takes place.
When questioned on Friday about concerns that the Russian leader might be trying to stall for time, Mr. Trump’s frank reply was, “I am.”
He then added, “But I’ve been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well.”
According to analyst Mr. Nedelcu, Mr. Trump will be keen to avoid a repeat of his previous encounter with Mr. Putin in Alaska last August. That meeting ended without any concrete outcomes after Russia insisted on significant territorial concessions from Ukraine, a demand Kyiv considers non-negotiable. “Trump wants Budapest to be a summit with genuine substance,” Mr. Nedelcu explained. “He’s looking for the exact opposite of what happened in Alaska.”
Should a new round of negotiations commence, analysts believe Ukraine enters these talks from a comparatively stronger position than in earlier attempts.
Despite intense worries earlier this spring and summer about Russia potentially seizing key cities in the eastern Donetsk region, Ukraine has maintained its ground, holding onto those vital urban centers. Russian advances have noticeably decelerated in recent weeks, and Ukrainian counterattacks have even led to the recapture of some territory. Experts anticipate the front lines will stabilize over the winter months, as scarce vegetation offers little cover for troops and cold weather exacerbates logistical challenges.
Russia’s restricted battlefield gains have played a role in convincing Ukrainian officials to shift Mr. Trump’s initial perception that Russia was destined to win the war, and that Ukraine would benefit from a deal, even if it involved ceding territory. Consequently, they are now less apprehensive that Mr. Trump might undermine Kyiv in future diplomatic efforts.
“I think we began to understand each other,” Mr. Zelensky commented on Friday regarding Mr. Trump, highlighting that the American leader receives regular updates on the battlefield situation.
Furthermore, Ukraine’s extensive, months-long campaign targeting Russian oil infrastructure has provided Kyiv with new leverage, placing significant economic pressure on Moscow. As of last month, Ukraine had successfully destroyed or damaged approximately 20 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity. This has led to severe gasoline shortages in various Russian regions, effectively bringing the harsh realities of war directly to the Russian populace.
Although Mr. Trump’s decision earlier this year to cease military and financial assistance to Ukraine initially sparked concerns about Kyiv’s diminished fighting capacity, European funds have partially compensated for the shortfall. European capitals are now actively seeking long-term mechanisms to channel substantial financial support towards the Ukrainian war effort.
European leaders are currently deliberating a proposal to loan Ukraine $160 billion, a sum roughly three times Ukraine’s annual defense budget, to be secured against frozen Russian sovereign assets held in Europe. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund is reportedly on track to approve a new multibillion-dollar financial aid package for Ukraine, as confirmed by officials from both the fund and Ukraine who recently held confidential discussions in Washington.
Following the White House meeting, Mr. Zelensky informed reporters that he supported Mr. Trump’s renewed initiative to end the conflict, though he expressed doubts about Moscow’s sincerity.
However, he seemed visibly frustrated by the loss of Tomahawk missile leverage. He stated he would cease discussions on the issue, citing the United States’ desire to prevent “escalation” with Russia. He also mentioned that he had not had the opportunity to advocate for additional economic sanctions, a key tool Kyiv had intended to use against Moscow.
When asked about his outlook on eventually receiving the Tomahawks, Mr. Zelensky’s concise reply was, “I’m realistic.”