Reports circulating about an impending summit between the United States and Russia have proven to be premature. Just days after President Trump announced his intention to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the summit has been indefinitely suspended. Even a planned preliminary meeting between the two nations’ top diplomats has been called off. President Trump explained his decision, stating, “I don’t want to have a wasted meeting. I don’t want to have a waste of time, so I’ll see what happens.” This cancellation marks the latest development in President Trump’s persistent efforts to find a resolution to the war in Ukraine, a focus that has intensified following his recent success in brokering a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While celebrating the Gaza deal in Egypt, President Trump directed his lead diplomatic negotiator, Steve Witkoff, to prioritize resolving the situation with Russia. However, the conditions that facilitated a breakthrough in Gaza may prove difficult to replicate in the context of the nearly four-year-old Ukraine war. Witkoff noted that Israel’s decision to target Hamas negotiators in Qatar, while angering Arab allies, provided Trump with crucial leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu towards an agreement. President Trump’s long-standing pro-Israel stance, including the embassy move to Jerusalem and his support for Israeli settlements, coupled with his significant popularity among Israelis, gave him unique influence over Netanyahu. Furthermore, his established political and economic relationships with key Arab players offered considerable diplomatic weight.
In contrast, President Trump possesses significantly less leverage in the Ukraine conflict. Over the past nine months, his approach has oscillated between pressuring Putin and Zelensky, yielding little tangible progress. He has threatened sanctions on Russian energy exports and proposed supplying Ukraine with advanced weaponry, yet has also acknowledged the potential for global economic disruption and escalation. Simultaneously, he has publicly criticized Zelensky, even temporarily halting intelligence sharing and arms shipments to Ukraine, only to backtrack under pressure from European allies concerned about regional stability. Despite his confidence in his deal-making abilities, President Trump’s direct engagements with both Putin and Zelensky have not yet brought the Ukraine war closer to a peaceful resolution.
President Putin, it seems, may be exploiting President Trump’s eagerness for a deal and his belief in personal diplomacy to influence him. In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska just as Congress was considering sanctions against Russia, which were subsequently delayed. Last week, as the White House considered supplying advanced weaponry to Kyiv, Putin contacted Trump, leading to the announcement of the potential Budapest summit. The following day, Trump met with Zelensky, but the meeting reportedly ended without a breakthrough. Trump maintains he is not being manipulated by Putin, stating, “You know, I’ve been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well.”
However, President Zelensky pointed to the pattern of events, observing that Russia’s interest in diplomacy waned as Ukraine’s access to long-range capabilities became less certain. Within days, Trump shifted from considering missile shipments to Ukraine to planning a summit with Putin, while also privately urging Zelensky to cede territory in Donbas, including areas Russia had not yet captured. He eventually advocated for a ceasefire along the current front lines, a proposal Russia has rejected. During his campaign last year, Trump pledged to end the Ukraine war swiftly, a promise he has since revised, admitting that achieving peace is proving more challenging than anticipated. This marks a rare instance where Trump has acknowledged the limitations of his influence and the difficulty of forging peace when neither side is willing or able to cease hostilities.