The Trump administration’s aggressive anti-drug measures, particularly its tactic of destroying boats off Venezuela’s coast, have sparked a crucial question closer to home: could Mexico’s powerful drug cartels be the next target? President Trump has openly expressed his readiness to deploy U.S. forces against these “evil” criminal organizations, even stating he’d be “honored” to do so.
Surprisingly, both high-ranking Mexican officials and certain cartel members are currently unfazed by the prospect of U.S. military intervention. Mexican authorities emphasize the robust and productive cooperation already in place between the two nations on migration and drug enforcement, which they believe makes unilateral action unlikely. Meanwhile, cartel operatives reportedly remain more concerned with their internal power struggles.
The situation in Mexico differs significantly from Venezuela, a country Washington has long sought to destabilize. Any unapproved U.S. military action on Mexican soil would trigger severe diplomatic, economic, and political backlash, given Mexico’s firm commitment to its national sovereignty. Mexican officials, overseeing foreign affairs and security, indicate that U.S. counterparts have given no impression that Mexico is in the crosshairs. This dynamic underscores a notable shift in U.S.-Latin American relations under the Trump administration.
Despite these assurances, many analysts from both sides of the border caution against complacency. The sheer scale and influence of Mexican cartels, combined with President Trump’s combative rhetoric, suggest that the threat of intervention, particularly as an extension of Caribbean operations, remains a long-term concern. U.S. officials also prefer continued collaboration, suggesting that their firm stance has prompted Mexico to increase its anti-cartel efforts, thus temporarily obviating the need for direct military involvement. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a recent visit to Mexico, lauded the security cooperation as “the closest we have ever had,” even while strongly advocating for the destruction of Venezuelan drug vessels.
This cooperative spirit was further highlighted in a joint statement emphasizing “respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has consistently drawn a clear line, unequivocally rejecting any foreign military interventions in Mexican territory, whether by land, water, sea, or air.
Intriguingly, even key figures within the notorious Sinaloa Cartel—a criminal organization potentially far larger than all Venezuelan smugglers combined—appear to take comfort in President Sheinbaum’s strong stance. In anonymous interviews, cartel operatives expressed minimal concern about U.S. intervention, attributing their confidence to the Mexican government’s protective posture. They also asserted their resilience, stating that even if maritime smuggling routes were disrupted, their extensive land and air networks would ensure continued operations.
Mexico itself has intensified its fight against organized crime, with thousands of cartel members arrested, 55 high-level operatives extradited to the U.S., and hundreds of fentanyl labs dismantled. These actions, say Mexican officials, have contributed to a sharp decline in fentanyl seizures at the U.S.-Mexico border. Concurrently, Mexico’s increased efforts in migration control have led to the lowest illegal border crossings in years.
While daily cooperation, including U.S. surveillance flights over Mexican territory, is routine, Mexican officials firmly state that direct U.S. force is forbidden by the Mexican Constitution. A significant economic factor also plays a role: the nearly trillion-dollar trade relationship between the two nations. Disrupting this deep interdependence could devastate border economies and potentially trigger a new wave of migration into the United States.
However, analysts warn that Mexico might be placing too much trust in the diplomatic process with a notoriously unpredictable U.S. president. David Mora of the International Crisis Group observed that even when Mexico delivers, “it’s never enough for the U.S.” Public opinion in Mexico is complex; while over 60 percent oppose U.S. military operations, a notable 31 percent would welcome such intervention, especially in areas ravaged by cartel violence like Sinaloa. As one local editor noted, while some might desperately wish for the violence to stop, caution is warranted about what such intervention truly entails.