President Trump is on the verge of a monumental diplomatic achievement during his second term: a cessation of the devastating war between Israel and Hamas. On Wednesday evening, he expressed a strong desire to travel to the Middle East to personally oversee the cease-fire and greet hostages who have endured two harrowing years in captivity.
This potential success represents the ultimate validation of Mr. Trump’s self-professed role as a master dealmaker and peacemaker, potentially even paving the way for the Nobel Peace Prize he has long sought. Coincidentally, the 2025 Nobel winner is set to be announced merely hours before his possible departure for a victory tour in Egypt and Israel.
However, the coming days are fraught with peril, as is often the case in the Middle East. The ‘peace’ agreement that Mr. Trump announced on Truth Social Wednesday evening might ultimately prove to be just another temporary lull in a conflict that has persisted since Israel’s establishment in 1948.
Should Mr. Trump manage to solidify this agreement, and if Hamas releases its final 20 living hostages this weekend, sacrificing its primary bargaining chip, it would mark a monumental stride toward the comprehensive peace plan that both Mr. Trump and his predecessor, Joseph R. Biden Jr., have strived for through numerous challenges. Furthermore, if Mr. Trump can persuade Prime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza City and abandon his ambitions to control the devastated region, and if he can halt the ongoing slaughter that has claimed 1,200 Israeli lives and over 60,000 Palestinian lives, he would achieve what many have attempted before him: successfully outmaneuvering a formidable and increasingly isolated ally.
{“visibleWhen”:[“before-play”]}
{“url”:”https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/10/09/multimedia/09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal-tgml/09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal-tgml-threeByTwoLargeAt2X.jpg”}
Israel and Hamas Reach a Deal{“share”:{“url”:”https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000010448555/israel-hamas-peace-plan.html”,”text”:”Share this video”},”showDuration”:true}
{“adReq”:{“edn”:”us”,”path”:”29390238/nyt”,”typ”:”video”},”env”:”production”,”mediaAds”:true,”mediaId”:”100000010448555″,”mediaRatio”:”3:2″,”mediaSection”:”world”,”mediaSeries”:””,”mediaSubsection”:”middleeast”,”mediaTimesTags”:[{“__typename”:”Subject”,”displayName”:”Israel-Gaza War (2023- )”,”isAdvertisingBrandSensitive”:true,”vernacular”:”Israel Gaza War”},{“__typename”:”Subject”,”displayName”:”Peace Process”,”isAdvertisingBrandSensitive”:false,”vernacular”:”Peace Process”},{“__typename”:”Location”,”displayName”:”Israel”,”isAdvertisingBrandSensitive”:false,”vernacular”:”Israel”}],”playlist”:{“__typename”:”Playlist”,”id”:”UGxheWxpc3Q6bnl0Oi8vcGxheWxpc3QvM2U5MGFlZWMtNzA5Yi01Yzg4LWFlZGYtOGI5NTI5YmYxMGY4″,”promotionalHeadline”:”Middle East Crisis”,”sourceId”:”100000009733777″,”url”:”https://www.nytimes.com/video/middle-east-crisis”,”videos”:{“__typename”:”VideosConnection”,”edges”:[{“__typename”:”VideosEdge”,”node”:{“__typename”:”Video”,”advertisingProperties”:{“__typename”:”CreativeWorkAdvertisingProperties”,”sensitivity”:”SHOW_ADS”,”sponsored”:false},”duration”:66000,”headline”:{“__typename”:”CreativeWorkHeadline”,”default”:”Israel and Hamas Reach a Deal”},”id”:”VmlkZW86bnl0Oi8vdmlkZW8vZDU5ZTRjMjYtMmYwNC01Mzg2LTgwOGMtZjBhZDJiZGU0YThl”,”promotionalMedia”:{“__typename”:”Image”,”crops”:[{“__typename”:”ImageCrop”,”name”:”SIXTEEN_BY_NINE”,”renditions”:[{“__typename”:”ImageRendition”,”height”:304,”name”:”videoSixteenByNine540″,”url”:”https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/10/09/multimedia/09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal-tgml/09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal-tgml-videoSixteenByNine540.jpg”,”width”:540}]}],”id”:”SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvZDE4MmYwM2ItYThmMC01MGI4LTljMzEtOGJmN2M3MjhkNDMw”},”renditions”:[{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_1080p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_1080p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”syndication”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_hd_synd.mov”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_720p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_720p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_480p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_webm”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_480p.webm”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_360p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_360p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_240p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_240p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hls”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hls/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg/master.m3u8″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hlsfmp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hlsfmp4/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg/master.m3u8″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_1080p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_mobile_1080p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”syndication_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_mobile_hd_synd.mov”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_720p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_mobile_720p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_mobile_480p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_webm_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_mobile_480p.webm”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_360p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_mobile_360p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_240p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_mobile_240p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hls_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hls/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_mobile/master.m3u8″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hlsfmp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hlsfmp4/2025/10/09/151231_1_09vid-israel-hamas-peace-deal_wg_mobile/master.m3u8″}]},{“__typename”:”VideosEdge”,”node”:{“__typename”:”Video”,”advertisingProperties”:{“__typename”:”CreativeWorkAdvertisingProperties”,”sensitivity”:”SHOW_ADS”,”sponsored”:false},”duration”:45000,”headline”:{“__typename”:”CreativeWorkHeadline”,”default”:”Trump Responds After Hamas Agrees to Release Hostages”},”id”:”VmlkZW86bnl0Oi8vdmlkZW8vYzQ3OGMwODgtN2UxOS01MjNhLTk2OWQtYmYwY2E1ZDhjMGZl”,”promotionalMedia”:{“__typename”:”Image”,”crops”:[{“__typename”:”ImageCrop”,”name”:”SIXTEEN_BY_NINE”,”renditions”:[{“__typename”:”ImageRendition”,”height”:304,”name”:”videoSixteenByNine540″,”url”:”https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/10/03/us/politics/trump-hamas-cover/trump-hamas-cover-videoSixteenByNine540.jpg”,”width”:540}]}],”id”:”SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvYjFlYzEzZjYtOWNhYy01Mjc3LWI2ZjYtYmQ3OTRmZTk0ZTIw”},”renditions”:[{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_1080p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_1080p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”syndication”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_hd_synd.mov”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_720p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_720p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_480p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_webm”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_480p.webm”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_360p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_360p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_240p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_240p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hls”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hls/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg/master.m3u8″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hlsfmp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hlsfmp4/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg/master.m3u8″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_1080p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_mobile_1080p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”syndication_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_mobile_hd_synd.mov”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_720p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_mobile_720p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_mobile_480p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_webm_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_mobile_480p.webm”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_360p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_mobile_360p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_240p_mp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_mobile_240p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hls_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hls/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_mobile/master.m3u8″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hlsfmp4_mobile”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hlsfmp4/2025/10/03/150822_1_3vid-trump-hamas-response_wg_mobile/master.m3u8″}]},{“__typename”:”VideosEdge”,”node”:{“__typename”:”Video”,”advertisingProperties”:{“__typename”:”CreativeWorkAdvertisingProperties”,”sensitivity”:”SHOW_ADS”,”sponsored”:false},”duration”:100000,”headline”:{“__typename”:”CreativeWorkHeadline”,”default”:”A Family’s Struggle to Build Shelter After Fleeing Gaza City”},”id”:”VmlkZW86bnl0Oi8vdmlkZW8vNWRjZTFiZTktNDg0Ni01OTc2LTgzMTQtMzNhMjRlODdmNDRm”,”promotionalMedia”:{“__typename”:”Image”,”crops”:[{“__typename”:”ImageCrop”,”name”:”SIXTEEN_BY_NINE”,”renditions”:[{“__typename”:”ImageRendition”,”height”:304,”name”:”videoSixteenByNine540″,”url”:”https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/09/27/world/middleeast/3C2A9133/3C2A9133-videoSixteenByNine540.jpg”,”width”:540}]}],”id”:”SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvMjgzOWJjYzQtNjE1Yi01ZWNhLWJlMGMtOTkwYmQwMDExMTE0″},”renditions”:[{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_1080p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/27/150188_1_27vid-Gaza-evacuation-aid_wg_1080p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”syndication”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/27/150188_1_27vid-Gaza-evacuation-aid_wg_hd_synd.mov”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_720p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/27/150188_1_27vid-Gaza-evacuation-aid_wg_720p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/27/150188_1_27vid-Gaza-evacuation-aid_wg_480p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_webm”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/27/150188_1_27vid-Gaza-evacuation-aid_wg_480p.webm”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_360p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/27/150188_1_27vid-Gaza-evacuation-aid_wg_360p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_240p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/27/150188_1_27vid-Gaza-evacuation-aid_wg_240p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hls”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hls/2025/09/27/150188_1_27vid-Gaza-evacuation-aid_wg/master.m3u8″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hlsfmp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hlsfmp4/2025/09/27/150188_1_27vid-Gaza-evacuation-aid_wg/master.m3u8″}]},{“__typename”:”VideosEdge”,”node”:{“__typename”:”Video”,”advertisingProperties”:{“__typename”:”CreativeWorkAdvertisingProperties”,”sensitivity”:”SHOW_ADS”,”sponsored”:false},”duration”:81000,”headline”:{“__typename”:”CreativeWorkHeadline”,”default”:”Israelis and Gazans React to U.S. Peace Proposal”},”id”:”VmlkZW86bnl0Oi8vdmlkZW8vMDJlY2I4MTYtMmJlNC01YmJiLTgwODktNzVlYTNkODFmMzU2″,”promotionalMedia”:{“__typename”:”Image”,”crops”:[{“__typename”:”ImageCrop”,”name”:”SIXTEEN_BY_NINE”,”renditions”:[{“__typename”:”ImageRendition”,”height”:304,”name”:”videoSixteenByNine540″,”url”:”https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/09/30/multimedia/30int-Trump-Netanyahu-Assess-wctf/30int-Trump-Netanyahu-Assess-wctf-videoSixteenByNine540.jpg”,”width”:540}]}],”id”:”SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvMWIyZTExMTYtMGFjZC01NzJkLWI4NDctYTdlYzlkNDdmM2U3″},”renditions”:[{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_1080p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/30/150347_1_30vid-mideast-reaction_wg_1080p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”syndication”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/30/150347_1_30vid-mideast-reaction_wg_hd_synd.mov”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_720p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/30/150347_1_30vid-mideast-reaction_wg_720p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/09/30/150347_1_30vid-mideast-reaction_wg_480p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_480p_webm”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/30/150347_1_30vid-mideast-reaction_wg_480p.webm”},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_360p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/30/150347_1_30vid-mideast-reaction_wg_360p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”video_240p_mp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/2025/10/30/150347_1_30vid-mideast-reaction_wg_240p.mp4″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hls”,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hls/2025/10/30/150347_1_30vid-mideast-reaction_wg/master.m3u8″},{“__typename”:”VideoRendition”,”type”:”hlsfmp4″,”url”:”https://vp.nyt.com/video/hlsfmp4/2025/10/30/150347_1_30vid-mideast-reaction_wg/master.m3u8″}]}]}},”ppid”:””}
According to Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a frequent critic of Mr. Trump’s Middle East diplomacy, ‘This cease-fire and hostage release, should it materialize, is solely attributable to Trump’s readiness to exert pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu. No previous president, regardless of party, has ever confronted an Israeli prime minister so directly on matters vital to both his political standing and Israel’s national security.’
Mr. Trump recognizes that the Abraham Accords, which established normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (the first Arab nations to acknowledge Israel in 25 years), stand as his most significant international achievement from his first term. Sudan and Morocco subsequently joined. The impending inclusion of Saudi Arabia, guardian of Islam’s holiest sites, into these accords was a key motivator for Hamas’s horrific attack on October 7, 2023.
However, halting the brutal devastation of this war—which decimated Hamas’s leadership, obliterated 90 percent of Gaza’s homes, and severely eroded Israel’s international reputation—represents an even greater accomplishment.
Israel’s intense response to the October 7th assault, the most severe attack on Jews since the Holocaust, has left the nation in a paradoxical position: stronger militarily yet increasingly isolated on the global stage. Recent weeks saw Israel’s military operations in Gaza prompt many key allies to advocate for a Palestinian state, despite a lack of clear plans for its location or governance. Globally, Israel’s widespread destruction in Gaza, its controversial tactics of targeting single Hamas leaders at the cost of numerous Palestinian lives, and discussions about displacing Palestinians, have inflicted immense moral and political damage that could take generations to mend.
This outcome could also fundamentally alter the geopolitical landscape of the region.
Despite the ongoing conflict and 48 hostages still held (28 presumed deceased), Mr. Netanyahu has maintained a strong political position. He has consistently assured both supporters and detractors that he is fulfilling his pledge to dismantle Hamas leadership. His strategy included using explosive devices to target Hezbollah’s senior figures, contributing to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and eliminating numerous Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders during a 12-day conflict culminating in a U.S. strike on Iran’s primary nuclear facilities.
However, Mr. Netanyahu’s actions were perceived as an overreach, presenting an opportunity for Mr. Trump and his team to exert control. The vast devastation in Gaza drew global condemnation. The Trump White House was particularly stunned by Netanyahu’s decision to bomb Hamas negotiators in Qatar. In an unprecedented move, Mr. Trump compelled Netanyahu to issue an apology to Qatar’s leadership, even publicizing images of their call. Through these diplomatic maneuvers, Trump guided Netanyahu into accepting a 20-step peace plan, which the Israeli leader gambled Hamas would reject.
To widespread surprise, Hamas accepted the initial phases of the plan, having few alternatives. The immense human and infrastructural damage had severely eroded Hamas’s support among the surviving population in Gaza. Furthermore, Arab nations and Turkey eventually pressured Hamas to yield.
Mr. Trump is now poised to announce the conclusion of this chapter, and with some fortune, his declaration may hold true.
Should this peace initiative advance, Mr. Trump’s claim to a Nobel Peace Prize could be as legitimate as those of past American recipients—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Barack Obama, and Jimmy Carter (who received his decades post-presidency)—though perhaps with less fanfare or overt campaigning.
However, it remains uncertain whether the conflict is truly nearing its end. Both Mr. Trump’s and Mr. Netanyahu’s pronouncements have focused exclusively on the initial phase: hostage and prisoner exchanges, and the withdrawal of Israeli troops to a specified, yet undefined, boundary. Progressing to the subsequent stage—requiring Hamas to relinquish its weaponry and, more challenging still, its governance over Gaza—may be significantly more arduous than the current hostage returns. Both Hamas and Mr. Netanyahu could potentially resist these future steps, with Netanyahu insisting that the mission is incomplete until every Hamas participant in the October 7th attacks is apprehended. Such resistance could easily destabilize the precarious cease-fire.
The path to establishing a ‘technocratic’ interim leadership and ensuring the eradication of Hamas sympathies within Gaza’s governance remains undefined for the United States and its allies. Israel is unlikely to withdraw while any Hamas elements persist, and perhaps even after their removal. Furthermore, the precise role, if any, of the Palestinian Authority in this future structure is yet to be clarified.
History in this region demonstrates that forging peace agreements is akin to cleaning up after a volcanic eruption: the certainty of future conflict lingers; only the timing and intensity remain unknown.
