In a stunning foreign policy pivot, former President Trump declared on Tuesday that Ukraine, backed by Europe, is now capable of not just fighting, but *winning* back all its territory to its original borders. This marks a complete reversal from his prior insistence that Ukraine cede land for peace with Russia.
This dramatic shift, announced on social media after his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York, is a significant departure from his stance just five weeks prior. Following a three-hour discussion with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin in Alaska, Trump had urged Zelensky to accept reality and negotiate a deal, implying territorial concessions to Russia.
While Trump offered no clear explanation for this sudden change of heart, some European officials speculate that he might be trying to distance himself from a conflict he once vowed to resolve in a matter of days or weeks. Indeed, throughout his eight months in office, Trump’s position on Ukraine has frequently shifted.
Earlier in February, he berated Zelensky in the Oval Office for seeking American aid, reportedly telling him, “You don’t have the cards.” Later in the spring, he appeared to favor Putin, even waiving tariffs. That summer culminated in a high-profile meeting with Putin in Alaska.
Now, however, he seems to be publicly aligning with Ukraine’s objective, albeit with a slightly detached tone, concluding his statement with: “I wish both Countries well.”
Many European officials believe this pivot signals Trump’s attempt to disengage from a war he once claimed he could end swiftly.
Despite Trump’s bold declaration, his own Secretary of State and acting national security adviser, Marco Rubio, quickly offered a contrasting view. Rubio asserted that the war in Ukraine “cannot end militarily” and would inevitably conclude “at the negotiating table,” echoing Trump’s earlier stance.
During their Alaska meeting, Trump had advocated for a direct negotiation between the adversaries, dismissing a simple cease-fire in favor of a more comprehensive peace accord.
He had even discussed with European allies the possibility of establishing a post-peace security force for Ukraine, potentially including U.S. air support, to protect a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine.
However, after delivering a nearly hour-long speech at the United Nations, where he barely mentioned the Ukraine conflict, Trump abruptly abandoned these previous strategies.
Evidently frustrated by Putin’s failure to follow through on the peace negotiations they supposedly agreed upon, Trump publicly criticized Russia’s economic and strategic struggles. In a characteristic social media post, he stated, “Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win. This is not distinguishing Russia.”
He further described Putin’s military as a “paper tiger,” a stark contrast to his previous characterizations of the nuclear-armed nation. He highlighted Russia’s struggles with gasoline shortages and the immense costs of the war, concluding: “Putin and Russia are in BIG economic trouble.”
Yet, these economic and strategic challenges were evident even before the Alaska meeting. Trump offered no explanation for his new conviction that Ukraine, which has gradually lost territory to Russian forces over the past year, could suddenly reverse these losses.
A senior NATO military officer at the UN meetings pointed out the discrepancy: Ukraine struggled to gain ground even when U.S. aid was at its highest, and Russia’s forces were no larger then than now.
Significantly, Trump made no commitment to reinstate the billions in American military aid, merely stating, “We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them.”
While Trump’s statement implies separate operations for the U.S. and NATO, the reality is intertwined. NATO military forces are led by an American general, currently Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, who serves as Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
However, decisions regarding military support for Ukraine will be largely shaped by major European NATO members—Britain, France, and Germany—along with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Ukrainian President Zelensky, in English to reporters, praised Trump’s updated perspective, calling him a ‘game-changer’ and noting, ‘I think that he is more close now to the situation.’
Speaking at the United Nations, Zelensky wisely embraced Trump’s new position, offering praise despite their public confrontation in February where Trump and Vice President JD Vance had criticized him for insufficient gratitude. Zelensky commented, ‘I think that he is more close now to the situation.’
He further emphasized his point to reporters, calling Trump a ‘game-changer.’
The long-term impact of Trump’s declaration, and which side it benefits most in this brutal conflict, remains to be seen. The U.S. could still find itself drawn deeper into the hostilities.
For instance, Trump stated on Tuesday that NATO nations have the right to intercept Russian military aircraft violating their airspace. This follows recent incidents, including Russian fighter jets spending 12 minutes over Estonia and drones flying into Poland, the latter of which Trump initially dismissed as a “mistake,” a claim quickly refuted by French President Emmanuel Macron.
However, when pressed on whether he would support allies in an air conflict over NATO territory, Trump responded evasively, stating it “depends on the circumstances.”
A major question is how Putin will interpret Trump’s change of tune. After the Alaska summit, Putin likely believed Trump lacked the appetite for prolonged conflict, further aid to Ukraine, or American involvement in a NATO peacekeeping mission.
Putin might find comfort in Trump’s apparent disengagement, even if it comes with verbal support for Ukraine. Alternatively, he could perceive this as an opportunity to intensify attacks and threats, believing that time and sheer military might are on Russia’s side.