In recent days, efforts by top aides to President Trump to unseat Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s leader, have escalated dramatically. Administration officials are reportedly discussing a wide-ranging campaign that includes intensified military pressure to force him out.
Leading this initiative is Marco Rubio, who serves as both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. Rubio asserts that Maduro is an illegitimate leader actively involved in exporting drugs to the United States, presenting an ‘imminent threat’ to national security.
The U.S. military recently carried out deadly strikes against civilian boats, which the administration claims were involved in smuggling drugs for Venezuelan gangs. These actions are part of a more aggressive strategy being shaped by Rubio, leveraging intelligence from the C.I.A. The Pentagon has already bolstered its presence in the region, deploying over 6,500 troops.
Both John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, and Stephen Miller, Trump’s chief domestic policy advisor, reportedly support Rubio’s hardline stance.
Furthermore, the U.S. military has been developing plans for potential operations directly targeting drug trafficking suspects within Venezuela. While these plans have yet to receive White House approval, they represent a significant escalation in the campaign to disrupt drug production and trafficking, effectively tightening the grip on Maduro’s regime.
By framing Maduro’s removal as a counternarcotics operation—given the administration’s assertion that he presides over Venezuela’s cartel network—officials can justify these aggressive tactics.
Rubio frequently references the Justice Department’s 2020 indictment of Maduro and other Venezuelan officials on drug trafficking charges, labeling Maduro a ‘fugitive from American justice’ and the head of a ‘terrorist organization and organized crime organization that have taken over a country.’
Simultaneously, two prominent figures within Venezuela’s opposition movement have revealed their plans for a post-Maduro transition, confirming ongoing discussions with the Trump administration about this very scenario.
However, Trump administration officials have not publicly acknowledged these specific exchanges, with the White House offering no direct comment on the matter.
The campaign gained momentum in July when Trump reportedly signed a secret order authorizing the U.S. military to use force against drug cartels classified as terrorist organizations by his administration. Following this, the Pentagon began assembling a significant naval force in the Caribbean.
Since early September, Trump has announced three military operations in international waters, resulting in at least 17 fatalities. These strikes, which Trump attributed to targeting Venezuelans in the first two instances (the nationality of victims in the third remains undisclosed), lacked a publicly stated legal justification. News of potential expanded military operations into Venezuela itself was previously reported by NBC News.
In May, Rubio held meetings with five opposition figures who had discreetly arrived in the United States, describing their departure from Venezuela as a ‘precise operation.’ He has publicly lauded opposition leader María Corina Machado, affectionately calling her the ‘Venezuelan Iron Lady’ in a tribute this year.
The ‘Fugitive’
Rubio has consistently and forcefully articulated the Trump administration’s intent to hold Maduro accountable for the Justice Department indictment.
The State Department notably increased its reward to $50 million for any information leading to Maduro’s arrest and conviction on drug-related charges.
As a former Republican senator from Florida, Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, was a key architect of the first Trump administration’s efforts to oust Maduro. He has long maintained that Maduro’s removal would weaken Cuba’s Communist government, a close ally of Venezuela.
Rubio and many Republican politicians also understand the significant importance of this issue to Cuban and Venezuelan American voters in Florida, many of whom are staunchly opposed to the governments in their former homelands.
While Trump has not explicitly declared his objective to be Maduro’s deposition, he has openly celebrated the new military campaign in the Caribbean.
During a speech at the U.N. General Assembly last week, he declared, ‘We’ve recently begun using the supreme power of the United States military to destroy Venezuelan terrorists and trafficking networks led by Nicolás Maduro.’ He ominously added, ‘We will blow you out of existence.’
Rubio has stated that Trump ‘is going to wage war on narco-terrorist organizations,’ despite the absence of congressional authorization for such armed conflict.
Legal experts have characterized the lethal military strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats as illegal.
The White House, however, defends the attacks as acts of self-defense, citing approximately 100,000 American overdose deaths annually. (It’s worth noting that the recent surge in these deaths is primarily driven by fentanyl, predominantly produced in Mexican labs, not South America).
‘As the president has said, Maduro must stop sending drugs and criminals to our country,’ the White House affirmed in a statement. ‘He is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding in to our country and to bring those responsible to justice.’
In 2019, Rubio, alongside John Bolton, then National Security Adviser, and Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of State, supported Juan Guaidó, a Venezuelan opposition leader who attempted to remove Maduro from power.
Guaidó’s attempt to ignite an uprising, despite some military backing, ultimately failed. A subsequent coup attempt the following year, orchestrated by a former U.S. Green Beret soldier, also proved unsuccessful.
The political landscape in Venezuela remains challenging for the opposition, even though a significant majority of the population clearly desires change.
In last year’s election, approximately 70 percent of the populace voted for Edmundo González, according to opposition tallies from voting machines. The Carter Center, an independent election monitoring group, validated the accuracy of the opposition’s count.
Nevertheless, the Venezuelan military has maintained its loyalty to Maduro, enduring years of poor compensation and political suppression.
Drugs and Diplomacy
Some senior U.S. officials, notably Richard Grenell, Trump’s envoy to Venezuela and the executive director of the Kennedy Center, argue that any forceful removal of Maduro would be ill-advised.
These officials contend that expanding the Venezuelan campaign into a full-blown regime-change operation risks entangling the United States in a prolonged conflict, precisely the kind of war Trump vowed to avoid.
Grenell and his allies advocate for diplomatic negotiation as the most effective means to safeguard American economic interests in Venezuela.
Grenell has often clashed with Rubio over administration policies, including the strategy for securing the release of American hostages held by Maduro. Grenell successfully negotiated the release of several hostages and secured an agreement for Venezuela to repatriate illegal immigrants detained by the Trump administration. The broader objectives Trump has tasked Grenell with achieving through dialogue remain confidential.
Speaking at a Conservative Political Action Committee event in Paraguay this month, Grenell emphasized the ongoing potential for diplomacy. ‘I believe in diplomacy,’ he stated, ‘I believe in avoiding war.’
In a recent interview with The New York Times, Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s vice president, asserted that her country is not a significant drug producer or exporter. She expressed ‘no doubt that one of the strategic objectives’ of the Trump administration is ‘regime change.’
Rodríguez indicated Venezuela’s desire to continue dialogue with Grenell and to normalize economic relations with the United States, suggesting that Trump’s voter base prioritizes economic growth over ‘more wars.’
Earlier this month, Maduro personally sent a three-page letter to Trump, vehemently denying his country’s involvement in drug exports.
The letter, dated September 6, proposed talks to de-escalate tensions, according to multiple sources briefed by The New York Times. It remained private until September 21, when Rodríguez published it online, confirming its delivery to Washington via an intermediary.
Karoline Leavitt, the White House spokeswoman, confirmed receipt of the letter but stated last week that the administration had dismissed it.
According to the United Nations, the majority of coca, the raw material for cocaine, originates from Colombia, with smaller quantities from Peru and Bolivia. While some cocaine transits through Venezuela en route from South America, a 2020 D.E.A. report clarifies that Venezuela is not a primary source of drugs destined for the U.S.
Yván Gil, Venezuela’s foreign minister, pointed to his nation’s continued acceptance of twice-weekly flights of deportees to the United States as evidence of its commitment to diplomacy.
“We are willing to discuss everything that needs to be discussed with a neighboring country, a country that is an economic power, a military power,” Gil stated, warning that a large-scale conflict would lead to ‘excessive migration’ and economic collapse, potentially ‘destabilizing the entire region.’
However, he concluded, one aspect remains non-negotiable in any diplomatic discussions: Maduro’s departure from power.