The Trump administration is reportedly intensifying its efforts to remove Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela. High-ranking officials are actively discussing an extensive campaign that would significantly increase military pressure to compel his departure, according to U.S. officials.
This aggressive push is largely spearheaded by Marco Rubio, who serves as both Secretary of State and National Security Adviser. Rubio maintains that Maduro is an illegitimate leader directly involved in exporting illegal drugs to the United States, presenting what he describes as an “imminent threat.”
In recent weeks, the U.S. military has conducted deadly assaults on civilian vessels believed by the administration to be involved in drug smuggling for Venezuelan cartels. Rubio, leveraging intelligence from the C.I.A., is advocating for an even more assertive strategy, officials revealed. The Pentagon has already amassed a substantial force of over 6,500 troops in the region.
Both John Ratcliffe, the director of the intelligence agency, and Stephen Miller, President Trump’s chief domestic policy adviser, reportedly support Rubio’s hardline stance.
The U.S. military has been developing plans for potential operations directly targeting drug trafficking suspects within Venezuela. However, the White House has not yet given approval for such a critical next step, current and former officials confirmed.
These proposed operations are designed to disrupt drug production and distribution within Venezuela while simultaneously tightening the pressure on Maduro.
Because administration officials claim Maduro controls Venezuela’s cartel network, they assert that his removal would primarily be a counternarcotics operation.
Rubio frequently references the Justice Department’s 2020 indictment of Maduro and other Venezuelan officials on drug trafficking charges. He recently labeled Maduro a “fugitive from American justice” and the head of “a terrorist organization and organized crime organization that have taken over a country.”
Simultaneously, two prominent figures within Venezuela’s opposition movement have indicated that they are preparing for the aftermath of Maduro’s potential downfall and are in discussions with the Trump administration about this very scenario.
Trump administration officials have not verified these exchanges, and the White House has chosen not to comment on the matter.
In July, President Trump signed a confidential order authorizing the U.S. military to use force against drug cartels designated as terrorist organizations by his administration. Subsequently, the Pentagon began deploying a significant naval presence in the Caribbean.
Following this, the U.S. military initiated strikes on civilian boats. Since September 2, Trump has announced three such operations in international waters, resulting in at least 17 fatalities, without publicly detailing the legal justification. He initially stated that the first two strikes targeted Venezuelans but has not specified the nationality of those killed in the third incident. Plans for expanding military operations into Venezuela were previously reported by NBC News.
Rubio met with five opposition figures in May who had secretly departed to the United States in what he termed a “precise operation.” He has openly praised opposition leader María Corina Machado, whom he affectionately referred to as the “Venezuelan Iron Lady” in a recent tribute.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spoken vigorously of the Trump administration’s intention to force Mr. Maduro to answer to the Justice Department indictment. (Credit: Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York Times)
Pedro Urruchurtu, an adviser to Ms. Machado, disclosed in an interview that the opposition has devised a plan for the critical first 100 hours following Maduro’s removal. This plan would involve a transfer of power to Edmundo González, who unsuccessfully ran against Maduro in last year’s presidential election.
Independent election observers declared that election was marred by fraud and that González — now living in exile in Spain — was the rightful victor.
“What we’re talking about is an operation to dismantle a criminal structure, and that includes a series of actions and tools,” Urruchurtu stated. He added, “It has to be done with the use of force, because otherwise it wouldn’t be possible to defeat a regime like the one we’re facing.”
The opposition’s strategy also entails convincing other governments to take coordinated diplomatic, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement actions, he explained.
A second high-ranking member of the mostly exiled Venezuelan opposition, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions, confirmed communications with multiple U.S. agencies.
The State Department reiterated the administration’s primary focus on combating drug cartels.
“Maduro is not the legitimate leader of Venezuela; he’s a fugitive of American justice who undermines regional security and poisons Americans, and we want to see him brought to justice,” said Tommy Pigott, the State Department’s deputy spokesman, when asked for comment.
“The U.S. is engaged in a counterdrug cartel operation, and any claim that we are coordinating with anyone on anything other than this targeted effort is completely false,” he further added.
Under international law, using force in another country without its consent or UN Security Council approval is generally prohibited. However, the U.S. government, under the Biden administration, recognized González as the legitimate winner of the 2024 election. If González were to approve such an intervention, the Trump administration could then assert it had consent.
During his previous term, Trump supported a different opposition leader’s attempt to overthrow Maduro and imposed severe sanctions on Venezuela. However, the current initiatives appear far more extensive, largely due to the U.S. military strikes and strategic buildup.
Only a select group of officials are involved in the White House’s Venezuela planning discussions. Some individuals briefed on these talks suggested that Rubio and his allies are initially exploring non-military ways to unseat Maduro before resorting to direct U.S. military action.
The ‘Fugitive’
In recent weeks, Rubio has forcefully articulated the Trump administration’s intent to make Maduro accountable for the Justice Department indictment.
The State Department has increased its reward to $50 million for information leading to Maduro’s arrest and conviction on drug charges.
As a Republican senator from Florida, Rubio was a key architect behind the first Trump administration’s efforts to remove Maduro. Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has consistently argued that Maduro’s removal would weaken Venezuela’s strong ally, Cuba’s Communist government.
Rubio and many Republican politicians are also keenly aware of the issue’s importance to Florida voters of Cuban and Venezuelan descent, many of whom oppose their former countries’ governments.
President Trump has not explicitly stated his goal is to depose Maduro, but he has publicly boasted about the new military campaign in the Caribbean.
Military aircrafts seen at an airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, this month. The administration has been building up its military presence in the Caribbean region. (Credit: Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/Agency France-Presse — Getty Images)
“We’ve recently begun using the supreme power of the United States military to destroy Venezuelan terrorists and trafficking networks led by Nicolás Maduro,” he declared last week in a speech at the U.N. General Assembly.
“We will blow you out of existence,” he added menacingly.
Rubio has stated that Trump “is going to wage war on narco-terrorist organizations,” despite the lack of congressional authorization for any armed conflict with them.
Legal experts contend that the lethal military strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats have been illegal.
The White House asserts that these attacks are justifiable acts of self-defense, citing the approximate 100,000 Americans who die from overdoses annually. (Notably, the recent surge in these deaths is primarily due to fentanyl, with the U.S. supply predominantly manufactured in Mexican labs, not South America.)
“As the president has said, Maduro must stop sending drugs and criminals to our country,” the White House stated when asked for comment. “He is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding in to our country and to bring those responsible to justice.”
In 2019, Rubio, alongside John Bolton (then Trump’s national security adviser) and Mike Pompeo (Secretary of State), supported Juan Guaidó, a Venezuelan opposition leader who attempted to remove Maduro from power.
Mr. Rubio and other Trump administration officials backed Juan Guaidó, a former opposition leader, in 2019. (Credit: Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York Times)
With some military backing, Guaidó attempted to spark an uprising that ultimately failed. A coup attempt the following year, allegedly planned by a former U.S. Green Beret soldier, also proved unsuccessful.
The political climate in Venezuela remains challenging for the opposition, despite widespread public desire for change.
In last year’s election, approximately 70 percent of the population cast votes for González, according to opposition-collected paper tallies from voting machines. The Carter Center, an independent election monitor, validated the accuracy of the opposition’s count.
Nonetheless, the Venezuelan military has maintained its loyalty to Maduro, enduring years of low pay and political suppression.
Drugs and Diplomacy
Some senior U.S. officials, notably Richard Grenell, Trump’s envoy to Venezuela and executive director of the Kennedy Center, believe that any forceful attempt to remove Maduro would be misguided.
These officials argue that escalating the campaign against Venezuela into a regime-change operation risks entangling the United States in a prolonged conflict, precisely the kind of war Trump vowed to avoid.
Grenell and his allies assert that diplomatic negotiation offers the most effective path to safeguarding American economic interests in Venezuela.
Grenell has often clashed with Rubio on various administration issues, including the approach to securing the release of American hostages from Venezuela. Grenell successfully negotiated the release of several American hostages and brokered an agreement for Venezuela to accept deported undocumented immigrants from the Trump administration. The broader objectives Trump has tasked Grenell with achieving through talks remain confidential.
Speaking at a Conservative Political Action Committee event this month in Paraguay, Grenell expressed optimism for continued diplomacy.
“I believe in diplomacy,” he stated. “I believe in avoiding war.”
Members of the Bolivarian militia, a reserve force, marching in support of Mr. Maduro in Caracas last week. (Credit: Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York Times)
In an interview with The New York Times last Friday, Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s vice president, asserted that her country is neither a major producer nor exporter of drugs. She expressed “no doubt that one of the strategic objectives” of the Trump administration “is what they call ‘regime change.’”
Ms. Rodríguez indicated that Venezuela seeks continued dialogue with Grenell and a normalization of economic relations with the United States, suggesting that Trump’s base voted for economic growth, “not more wars.”
This month, Maduro dispatched a three-page letter to Trump, vehemently insisting that Venezuela does not export drugs.
The letter, dated September 6, urged talks to de-escalate tensions, multiple sources briefed on its contents informed The New York Times. The letter remained confidential until September 21, when Ms. Rodríguez publicly shared it online, stating it had been delivered to Washington via an intermediary.
Karoline Leavitt, the White House spokeswoman, confirmed last week that the administration received the letter but had dismissed its contents.
The United Nations reports that most coca, the raw material for cocaine, originates from Colombia, with smaller amounts from Peru and Bolivia. While some cocaine transits through Venezuela to leave South America, the country is not a primary source of drugs bound for the U.S., according to a 2020 report from the D.E.A.
Yván Gil, Venezuela’s foreign minister, highlighted that his nation’s continued acceptance of twice-weekly flights for deportees from the United States serves as evidence of its desire for diplomacy.
“We are willing to discuss everything that needs to be discussed with a neighboring country, a country that is an economic power, a military power,” Gil stated. He warned that a large-scale conflict would result in “excessive migration” and economic collapse, potentially “destabilizing the entire region.”
However, he emphasized that one item is definitively off the negotiation table: Maduro’s exit from power.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Maria Abi-Habib from Mexico City.