Top advisors to President Trump are aggressively pursuing the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela. Recent discussions among administration officials point to an extensive campaign that would ramp up military pressure to achieve this goal, according to U.S. officials.
This assertive approach is spearheaded by Marco Rubio, who serves as both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. Rubio maintains that Maduro is an illegitimate ruler presiding over a significant drug export operation into the United States, which he considers an “imminent threat.”
Recently, the U.S. military has conducted deadly strikes on civilian vessels believed by the administration to be smuggling drugs for Venezuelan criminal organizations. Officials indicate that Rubio is now developing an even more assertive strategy, leveraging intelligence gathered by the C.I.A. In parallel, the Pentagon has amassed a substantial military presence, deploying over 6,500 troops to the Caribbean region.
Both John Ratcliffe, the director of the agency, and Stephen Miller, President Trump’s senior domestic policy advisor, are reported to be in agreement with Rubio’s intensified strategy.
Current and former officials reveal that the U.S. military has been outlining potential operations aimed at drug trafficking suspects within Venezuela itself. However, the White House has not yet given its approval for this next stage.
These planned operations would aim to disrupt drug production and distribution networks in Venezuela, effectively increasing pressure on Maduro’s regime.
Administration officials contend that since Maduro allegedly controls Venezuela’s cartel operations, his removal from power can be justified as an essential counternarcotics effort.
Rubio frequently references the 2020 Justice Department indictment against Maduro and other Venezuelan officials for drug trafficking. He has publicly labeled Maduro a “fugitive from American justice” and the leader of “a terrorist organization and organized crime organization that have taken over a country.”
Meanwhile, two prominent figures within the Venezuelan opposition have indicated that their movement is actively preparing for the aftermath of Maduro’s potential fall, engaging in discussions with the Trump administration regarding this scenario.
Trump administration officials have neither confirmed nor denied these reported exchanges, and the White House has remained silent on the issue.
Last July, President Trump authorized a classified order empowering the U.S. military to use force against drug cartels designated as terrorist organizations by his administration. This was followed by a substantial naval buildup by the Pentagon in the Caribbean.
Subsequently, the U.S. military conducted strikes on civilian boats. Since September 2, President Trump has declared three such operations in international waters, resulting in at least 17 deaths, without providing a clear legal justification for these attacks. While he stated the first two strikes targeted Venezuelans, the nationality of those killed in the third remains undisclosed. Reports from NBC News indicate that expanding military operations into Venezuela is already being planned.
In May, Rubio held a meeting with five key opposition figures who had secretly traveled to the United States, an event he characterized as a “precise operation.” He has previously lauded opposition leader María Corina Machado, affectionately calling her the “Venezuelan Iron Lady” in a tribute earlier this year.
Pedro Urruchurtu, an advisor to Machado, confirmed in an interview that the opposition has drafted a detailed plan for the initial 100 hours following Maduro’s potential removal. This plan outlines a transfer of power to Edmundo González, who was Maduro’s presidential opponent last year.
Independent election observers have declared that the previous election was severely ‘marred by fraud,’ asserting that González, now living in exile in Spain, was the rightful victor.
“We are discussing an operation designed to dismantle a criminal structure, which necessitates a range of actions and tools,” Urruchurtu stated. “It requires the use of force; otherwise, it would be impossible to overcome a regime like this.”
He noted that the opposition’s strategy also involves encouraging other governments to implement diplomatic, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement measures.
Another high-ranking member of the mostly exiled Venezuelan opposition, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions, confirmed ongoing talks with various U.S. agencies.
The State Department reiterated that the administration’s primary focus is on combating drug cartels.
Tommy Pigott, the Deputy Spokesman for the State Department, commented on the situation, stating, “Maduro is an illegitimate leader in Venezuela, a fugitive from American justice who threatens regional security and harms Americans. Our goal is to ensure he faces justice.”
He further clarified, “The U.S. is solely focused on a counterdrug cartel operation. Any assertions of coordination with external entities for purposes beyond this specific effort are entirely unfounded.”
Under international law, using force in another sovereign nation without its consent or UN Security Council approval is generally prohibited. However, the U.S. government, during the previous Biden administration, recognized González as the rightful winner of the 2024 election. Should González publicly endorse an intervention, the Trump administration could interpret this as legitimate consent.
During his initial term, Trump supported a different opposition leader’s failed attempt to overthrow Maduro and levied severe sanctions against Venezuela. The current campaign, however, is considerably broader, primarily due to the significant U.S. military strikes and increased presence.
Only a select group of officials are engaged in White House discussions concerning Venezuela. Sources familiar with these conversations suggest that Rubio and his allies initially explored options to remove Maduro without direct U.S. military intervention.
The ‘Fugitive’
In recent weeks, Rubio has forcefully articulated the Trump administration’s commitment to holding Maduro accountable for the Justice Department’s indictment.
The State Department has raised its reward to $50 million for any information that leads to Maduro’s arrest and conviction on drug-related charges.
As a Republican Senator representing Florida, Rubio was instrumental in the first Trump administration’s attempts to oust Maduro. Being the son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio has consistently advocated that Maduro’s removal would undermine Venezuela’s steadfast ally, Cuba’s Communist government.
Rubio and numerous Republican politicians are acutely aware that this issue resonates deeply with Florida voters of Cuban and Venezuelan descent, many of whom are staunchly opposed to the current governments in their home countries.
While President Trump has not explicitly called for Maduro’s ouster, he has publicly highlighted the new military campaign underway in the Caribbean.
During a recent speech at the U.N. General Assembly, Trump declared, “We’ve recently initiated the use of the supreme power of the United States military to dismantle Venezuelan terrorists and trafficking networks led by Nicolás Maduro.”
He ominously added, “We will blow you out of existence.”
Rubio has stated that Trump intends to “wage war on narco-terrorist organizations,” even without formal congressional authorization for such a conflict.
Legal experts argue that the deadly military strikes on suspected drug smuggling vessels are unlawful.
The White House, however, asserts that these attacks are justified as acts of self-defense, citing approximately 100,000 American overdose deaths annually. (It’s worth noting that the recent spike in these deaths is largely attributed to fentanyl, which is predominantly manufactured in Mexican labs, not in South America.)
In response to inquiries, the White House released a statement: “As the president has clearly stated, Maduro must cease sending drugs and criminals into our nation. President Trump is ready to deploy all facets of American power to halt the influx of drugs and ensure those responsible are brought to justice.”
In 2019, Rubio, alongside John Bolton, then Trump’s national security adviser, and Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of State, endorsed Juan Guaidó, a Venezuelan opposition leader who attempted to remove Maduro from power.
Despite some military backing, Guaidó’s attempt to ignite an uprising ultimately failed. The following year, a coup attempt orchestrated by a former U.S. Green Beret soldier also proved unsuccessful.
Despite a clear popular desire for change, the political landscape in Venezuela remains challenging for the opposition.
In last year’s election, opposition tallies from voting machines showed that approximately 70 percent of the population cast their votes for González. The Carter Center, an independent election monitoring organization, corroborated the accuracy of the opposition’s count.
However, the Venezuelan military continues to pledge loyalty to Maduro, even in the face of prolonged low pay and political oppression.
Drugs and Diplomacy
Conversely, some high-ranking U.S. officials, including Richard Grenell—Trump’s special envoy to Venezuela and executive director of the Kennedy Center—contend that any forceful attempt to depose Maduro would be ill-advised.
These officials argue that escalating the current campaign in Venezuela into a full-scale regime-change operation could entangle the United States in a prolonged conflict, a scenario Trump has consistently vowed to prevent.
Grenell and his allies maintain that diplomatic negotiations offer the most effective path to safeguard American economic interests in Venezuela.
Grenell has frequently clashed with Rubio on various policy matters within the administration, including the strategy for securing the release of American hostages held by Maduro’s regime. Grenell successfully negotiated the release of several American hostages and facilitated an agreement for Venezuela to repatriate illegal immigrants detained by the Trump administration. The broader objectives Trump has tasked Grenell with achieving through these talks remain confidential.
Speaking at a Conservative Political Action Committee event in Paraguay this month, Grenell emphasized that diplomatic solutions are still viable.
He stated, “I believe in diplomacy. I believe in avoiding war.”
In an interview with The New York Times last Friday, Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s vice president, asserted that her country is neither a significant producer nor exporter of illicit drugs. She also expressed her firm belief that a primary strategic objective of the Trump administration is what they term ‘regime change.’
Rodríguez indicated Venezuela’s desire to continue diplomatic engagement with Grenell and to normalize economic ties with the United States. She suggested that Trump’s voter base prioritized economic growth over further military conflicts.
Earlier this month, Maduro dispatched a three-page letter to Trump, emphatically denying that Venezuela is involved in drug exportation.
Dated September 6, the letter proposed discussions to de-escalate tensions, according to several sources briefed by The New York Times. Its contents remained private until September 21, when Rodríguez published it online, confirming it had been sent to Washington via an intermediary.
Last week, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the administration received the letter but chose to disregard its contents.
According to the United Nations, the majority of coca, the raw material for cocaine, originates from Colombia, with smaller quantities from Peru and Bolivia. While some cocaine transits through Venezuela from South America, a 2020 D.E.A. report indicates that Venezuela is not a primary source of drugs destined for the U.S.
Yván Gil, Venezuela’s foreign minister, pointed to the ongoing acceptance of twice-weekly flights of deportees from the United States as evidence of his nation’s willingness for diplomatic engagement.
“We are prepared to discuss all necessary matters with a neighboring country that is both an economic and military powerhouse,” Gil stated. He cautioned that a major conflict would inevitably result in “excessive migration” and economic devastation, which would “destabilize the entire region.”
However, he emphasized that one non-negotiable point remains: Maduro’s departure from power.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Maria Abi-Habib from Mexico City.