A period of tentative détente in the trade war between the United States and China has abruptly ended, revealing the vast gulf of misunderstanding that continues to divide these two global superpowers.
President Trump expressed surprise by China’s recent announcement of new controls on rare earth metals and related products. He claimed this move blindsided him, especially after what he had recently described as a “very good” relationship. However, Chinese commentators quickly countered, asserting that Beijing’s actions were merely a defensive response to escalating technological restrictions imposed by the United States, despite Washington’s overtures of goodwill.
Both nations appear convinced they hold the strategic advantage and that the other side has miscalculated its strength. The escalating blame game intensified as China awoke to President Trump’s declaration of new 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports, effective November 1. While the Chinese government has yet to issue an official response, the move drew sharp criticism from Chinese analysts and commentators.
Hu Xijin, the influential former editor of the Communist Party-controlled Global Times newspaper, voiced the prevalent sentiment on a social media platform, questioning, “What is Trump feeling wronged about? What is he angry about? He should first understand what the U.S. has done to China!”
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President Trump’s latest tariff threat underscores the immense geopolitical and economic stakes tied to control over critical raw materials and technologies, such as rare earth metals and batteries, which are essential for future industrial development. Should neither side yield, these renewed hostilities are likely to extend far beyond trade, potentially impacting crucial areas of cooperation, including military communication and the global governance of artificial intelligence.
Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University, expressed profound concern in an interview, stating, “The situation is quite surprising, considering that there have already been four rounds of China-U.S. trade negotiations.” These recent meetings, aimed at de-escalation, had occurred in Geneva, London, Stockholm, and Madrid since May.
Adding to the tension, President Trump indicated last month his expectation to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea this month. However, he declared on Friday, “Now there seems to be no reason to do so.” Professor Zhu reiterated, “This is a very stark reminder that the fragility in China-U.S. relations is deepening.”
The resurgence of trade tensions reveals fundamentally different perceptions of their rivalry. For Mr. Trump, trade and technology issues can be compartmentalized; the U.S. believes it can intensify technology restrictions on China while simultaneously pursuing a major trade agreement. Conversely, Beijing views American actions in trade and technology as part of a broader, concerted effort to suppress China’s rise.
Professor Zhu warned, “If the trade talks fail, I’m deeply concerned that the all-fronts confrontation between the two sides will escalate.”
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While Mr. Trump, through a post on Truth Social, accused China of imposing rare earth controls “out of nowhere,” Chinese commentators firmly place the blame for escalation on Washington. Mr. Hu, the former Global Times editor, suggested that China’s rare earth measures were a direct response to recent U.S. actions, including expanding the list of Chinese companies subject to export restrictions. He asserted that China has grown more resilient to intense pressure from Washington.
“Chinese society is really not afraid of the United States now, and high U.S. tariffs and other levers have lost their deterrent effect on China,” he communicated via text message. Yet, the comprehensive nature of China’s new rare earth controls — which forbid shipments of critical materials to military equipment producers in Europe and the U.S., and prevent the transfer of technology that could help other nations establish their own production — struck many observers as a dramatic escalation.
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China’s assertive stance may stem from an assessment of Mr. Trump’s perceived weak position. Earlier this summer, U.S. trade negotiators showed a willingness to compromise on tariffs, and the President had previously indicated an eagerness to visit China. China’s boycott of U.S. soybean purchases has severely impacted American farmers, while domestic politics in the U.S. are in turmoil with a government shutdown. Furthermore, despite American promises to reduce its dependence on China for rare earth metals, that goal remains a distant prospect.
Meanwhile, China is emboldened by a recent large-scale military parade that showcased advanced new weaponry and solidified its alliances with Russia and North Korea. “China certainly knew Trump would react strongly, and it didn’t underestimate him,” noted Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “But there are several areas where China has the upper hand.”
Professor Wang suggested that China might be leveraging its position to push Mr. Trump towards a broader agreement on various aspects of the U.S.-China relationship, not just trade. Beijing also seeks concessions from the Trump administration regarding its support for Taiwan, which China claims as its territory, and the restrictions placed on advanced semiconductor chips, crucial for China’s ambitions in artificial intelligence and other sectors.
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China’s aggressive measures also serve as an internal message to its domestic audience, aiming to instill confidence despite the country’s economic slowdown and housing market crisis. It’s also a clear signal to other nations, including the European Union, which face pressure from Washington to align with one superpower over the other, warning them not to underestimate China’s resolve. “This tells you that China is very confident and powerful,” Professor Wang affirmed. “Don’t be afraid. Don’t sacrifice China to curry favor with the United States.”
However, some experts caution that Beijing may have overplayed its hand, misjudging the intensity of Mr. Trump’s response. Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, pointed out that Beijing has developed a “dangerous new habit” of underestimating America’s willingness and capacity for retaliation. China might have assumed a summit with Mr. Xi was guaranteed and that the U.S. was desperate for a deal, especially after the Trump administration previously scaled back tariffs. “Where the U.S. was showing good will, China saw a manifestation of American weaknesses,” Dr. Sun remarked in an email.
Professor Zhu acknowledged the need for China to proceed cautiously given Mr. Trump’s unpredictable nature, even while defending its interests. “If the trade war escalates further, that is definitely not in China’s interests,” he warned.
Indeed, if Mr. Trump’s additional 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods take effect, they could further devastate China’s economy. Exports to the United States, whether directly or via intermediaries like Vietnam and Mexico, have been a crucial lifeline for the Chinese economy.