When Tony Blair published his guide for new leaders last year, he emphasized the importance of tending to one’s legacy while still in office—a lesson he admitted overlooking during his decade as Britain’s prime minister.
Now, Blair has a compelling new opportunity to redefine his legacy in a region that has long consumed, and at times tormented, him. His involvement began after he controversially supported George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq over two decades ago. With a central role in President Trump’s latest initiative to end the war in Gaza, Blair aims to reshape a public image tarnished by the Iraq War and largely unredeemed by his challenging stint as a Middle East peacemaker after leaving 10 Downing Street.
However, the odds of his success are incredibly slim. President Trump’s commitment to sustained peacemaking efforts remains unpredictable. Critics warn that if Blair positions himself as a ‘colonial viceroy’ in Gaza, he risks further inflaming tensions. Rather than bringing an end to the conflict, he could find himself trapped in yet another seemingly intractable diplomatic quagmire.
Many elements of Trump’s plan mirror ideas found in Blair’s own 21-page blueprint for peace in Gaza. This includes the establishment of a high-level transitional board, on which Blair will serve. Sources familiar with the process indicate that Blair developed this plan over several months and was initially considered for a leading role. However, in an unexpected turn, President Trump ultimately decided to chair the board himself.
“Good man, very good man,” Mr. Trump commented about Mr. Blair on Monday, following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Curiously, he offered no specifics about Mr. Blair’s exact responsibilities or his contributions to the proposed plan.
Nevertheless, should the plan gain any significant traction—a substantial ‘if’ given the relentless hostility between Israel and Hamas—Blair would be among those most instrumental in its implementation. This represents a striking new chapter for the 72-year-old retired politician, who has since built a lucrative business advising governments, banks, and other clients on diverse issues, including the transformative potential of artificial intelligence. Despite his continued influence, he remains a polarizing figure when it comes to Middle East policy.
Yet, this new role aligns perfectly with Mr. Blair’s long-held aspirations as a global statesman.
“Tony’s been at this issue for a long time, proposing ideas, sometimes having those ideas thrown back at him. He wants to keep trying,” explained David M. Satterfield, an American diplomat who served as the Biden administration’s special envoy for humanitarian issues in Gaza in 2023 and 2024.
Image: Mr. Blair backed George W. Bush’s war in Iraq 22 years ago. The backlash has hung over his post-government life. (Credit: Doug Mills/The New York Times)
Mr. Satterfield recounted meeting Mr. Blair in Israel in January 2024, at a time when diplomats from several countries were beginning to conceptualize an interim authority for Gaza. Mr. Blair, he noted, was a frequent visitor to Jerusalem and various Arab capitals, cultivating broad ties from his seven years as the envoy of the Quartet. This diplomatic group, composed of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union, and Russia, had been dedicated to advancing the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
During the Biden administration, Mr. Blair traveled to the United Arab Emirates to advocate for his post-conflict plan for Gaza to its leadership. Following the presidential election, his focus shifted from lobbying Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken to engaging with Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, who played a role in developing the plan announced by the president on Monday.
“He believes in the possibility of a resolution, and he’s never been far away from the issue,” added Mr. Satterfield, now the director of the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston.
Mr. Blair’s office declined to comment on the specifics of the plan.
Few individuals possess the former prime minister’s unique credentials for resolving seemingly intractable conflicts. In 1998, he was instrumental in negotiating the Good Friday Agreement, which brought an end to decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. Allies of Mr. Blair suggest that this experience—where he successfully earned the trust of both Irish republicans and unionists—would be invaluable in forging a settlement between Israel and Hamas.
“Tony Blair learned that it has to be give-and-take; it can’t be all take,” observed Monica McWilliams, an academic and former politician who participated in the Good Friday negotiations. She highlighted that those talks grappled with similar challenges, from governance to the disarming of militants, that are now central to the situation in Gaza.
However, Ms. McWilliams quickly added, “I often asked myself how much Blair learned from Northern Ireland after he made the disastrous decision to go into Iraq.”
Image: Mr. Blair with the then-prime minister of Ireland, Bertie Ahern, just after negotiating the Good Friday agreement in 1998. (Credit: Chris Bacon – PA Images, via Getty Images)
For Mr. Blair, the profound backlash over Iraq has cast a persistent shadow over his post-government life. On the very day he stepped down as prime minister in 2007, he was appointed special envoy for the Quartet, immediately dedicating himself to mending the fundamental divide in the Middle East—between Israel and the Palestinians.
Working from offices at the American Colony Hotel in East Jerusalem, Mr. Blair meticulously addressed issues such as dismantling Israeli checkpoints in the West Bank and fostering a more vibrant Palestinian economy.
Despite his efforts, Mr. Blair’s history with Iraq fueled deep suspicions about him across the region. He also struggled to shed the perception among Palestinians that he was unduly biased toward Israel. Far from being a catalytic force in brokering a deal, the Quartet often found itself a mere bystander to the ongoing negotiations.
Nevertheless, Mr. Blair remains steadfastly proud of his work in the Middle East. In the London offices of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, he prominently displays a signed photograph of himself with John Kerry, the former secretary of state, commemorating his contributions. By the time he resigned as envoy in 2015, however, his active presence in the peace process had significantly diminished, coinciding with its broader stagnation.
“The Palestinians said, ‘good riddance,’” remarked Khaled Elgindy, a visiting scholar at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University, who penned a critical study of the Quartet in 2012.
“Now, to parachute in as the viceroy or high commissioner of this colonial project in Gaza?” Mr. Elgindy questioned pointedly. “That’s not going to go over well at all.”
Image: Mr. Blair was the special envoy for the Quartet, a diplomatic group composed of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia that was mediating the peace process between Israel and Palestinians. (Credit: Ozier Muhammad/The New York Times)
Analysts emphasize that Iraq should serve as a stark warning to Mr. Blair. They argue that the interim authority he and Mr. Trump envision for Gaza shares many characteristics with the Coalition Provisional Authority, which the United States established in Iraq after toppling Saddam Hussein.
That transitional government, lacking legitimacy among the Iraqi people, ultimately failed to stabilize the country, which subsequently descended into a brutal insurgency. It is largely remembered for its financial mismanagement and its profound detachment from the population, drawing unflattering comparisons to an arrogant colonial administration.
Mr. Blair’s detailed plan for a Gaza International Transitional Authority, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times, attempts to circumvent some of these historical pitfalls. It proposes the establishment of a Palestinian executive authority tasked with providing essential services like healthcare, education, and policing. Furthermore, the plan mandates that the interim government coordinate closely with the Palestinian Authority on the highly sensitive issue of disarming militant groups.
On Monday, Mr. Blair publicly welcomed Mr. Trump’s plan, lauding it as “bold and intelligent.” In a statement, he declared that Mr. Trump’s decision to chair the newly formed “Board of Peace” signified “huge support and confidence in the future of Gaza.”
However, Mr. Trump promptly clarified that he has no intention of being involved in the day-to-day operations. This effectively leaves the immense and demanding work to Mr. Blair, whose institute currently partners with approximately 40 countries worldwide, including Saudi Arabia. His donors include prominent figures like Silicon Valley billionaire Larry Ellison, known for his ardently pro-Israel views.
Mr. Blair has consistently asserted his deep commitment to the Palestinian cause. He recently shared with colleagues his belief that Gaza has represented a potential prototype for a fully independent Palestinian state since 2005. It was in that year, as prime minister, that he hosted a significant conference in London following Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from the enclave.
Image: Palestinians fleeing south from Gaza City last week. (Credit: Saher Alghorra for The New York Times)
Robert Danin, an American diplomat who worked under Mr. Blair at the Quartet and has served as a long-term advisor, commented that his former boss “has had a lot of experience in trying to move bureaucracies and governments.” Yet, he expressed significant doubts regarding the sustained engagement of other key international players, particularly the United States.
“So many of the parties will just want to move on,” Mr. Danin observed. “What they’ve laid out is such an ambitious agenda. To make it work will require so much.”
Adam Rasgon contributed reporting from Jerusalem and Maggie Haberman from Washington.