Last year, when Tony Blair released his guide for new leaders, he advised them to actively shape their legacy while in power—a task he admits he overlooked during his decade as Britain’s Prime Minister.
Now, Blair is once again presented with an opportunity to redefine his historical impact, this time in a volatile region that has haunted him since his controversial support for George W. Bush’s Iraq war 22 years prior. By taking on a key role in President Trump’s latest Gaza peace initiative, Blair aims to rewrite a personal history marred by Iraq and an unfulfilling period as a Middle East envoy.
However, his path to success is fraught with challenges. President Trump’s commitment to peacemaking remains uncertain, and critics caution that Blair’s perceived role as a ‘colonial viceroy’ in Gaza could escalate, rather than resolve, tensions. Instead of fostering peace, he might find himself entangled in yet another intractable conflict.
Much of Trump’s proposal echoes Blair’s own 21-page peace blueprint for Gaza, which includes a high-level transitional board where Blair will serve as a member. Sources indicate Blair spent months drafting this plan and was initially considered for a leadership position, but in an unexpected turn, Trump decided to chair the board himself.
On Monday, after discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump lauded Blair as a ‘good man, very good man,’ though he offered no specifics on Blair’s exact duties or contributions to the strategy.
Should the plan gain momentum—a significant challenge amidst the enduring animosity between Israel and Hamas—Blair would bear considerable responsibility for its implementation. This marks a notable chapter for the 72-year-old former politician, who has forged a successful post-premiership career advising global entities on diverse topics like AI, yet remains a divisive figure in Middle Eastern affairs.
Nonetheless, this endeavor perfectly aligns with Blair’s ongoing aspirations for statesmanship.
“Tony has been deeply involved in this issue for an extended period, consistently putting forward ideas, even when met with resistance. He remains committed to finding solutions,” noted David M. Satterfield, an American diplomat and former special envoy for humanitarian issues in Gaza during the Biden administration.
Satterfield recounted a meeting with Blair in Israel in January 2024, where various diplomats were initiating discussions on a temporary governing authority for Gaza. Blair, he noted, frequently visited Jerusalem and Arab capitals, leveraging extensive contacts cultivated during his seven-year tenure as envoy for the Quartet, a diplomatic body (comprising the US, UN, EU, and Russia) dedicated to fostering Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Under the Biden administration, Blair traveled to the United Arab Emirates, advocating for a post-conflict strategy for Gaza. Following the presidential election, his focus shifted from lobbying Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken to engaging with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, who played a role in crafting the plan unveiled by the president this past Monday.
“He truly believes a resolution is possible and has always remained closely involved with this issue,” commented Satterfield, now leading the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University.
Blair’s office declined to comment on the new peace initiative.
Indeed, few possess Blair’s proven track record in resolving deeply entrenched conflicts. In 1998, he was instrumental in negotiating the Good Friday Agreement, which brought an end to decades of sectarian strife in Northern Ireland. His allies suggest this experience, where he earned the trust of both Irish republicans and unionists, offers an invaluable blueprint for navigating a potential settlement between Israel and Hamas.
Monica McWilliams, an academic and former politician involved in the Good Friday talks, remarked, “Tony Blair learned that true peace demands compromise from all sides, not just unilateral demands.” She noted the parallels between those negotiations, which dealt with governance and militant disarmament, and the challenges currently facing Gaza.
Yet, McWilliams questioned, “I frequently wondered how much Blair truly internalized from Northern Ireland after his catastrophic decision to join the invasion of Iraq.”
The shadow of the Iraq war has relentlessly followed Blair throughout his post-premiership. Upon stepping down in 2007, he was appointed special envoy for the Quartet, embarking on an effort to mend the fundamental divide in the Middle East: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
From his base at the American Colony Hotel in East Jerusalem, Blair delved into complex issues, including advocating for the removal of Israeli checkpoints in the West Bank and fostering a more robust Palestinian economy.
However, Blair’s past involvement in Iraq fueled deep suspicion within the region. He struggled to shed the Palestinian perception that he favored Israel. Instead of actively driving a resolution, the Quartet often remained on the sidelines during peace discussions.
Despite these challenges, Blair remains proud of his Middle East endeavors. In the London headquarters of his Institute for Global Change, he displays a signed photo with former Secretary of State John Kerry, a testament to his past efforts. By his departure as envoy in 2015, however, his influence waned in a peace process that was, by then, largely stalled.
Khaled Elgindy, a Georgetown University scholar and author of a critical 2012 study on the Quartet, remarked that “the Palestinians essentially said, ‘good riddance.'”
Elgindy sharply questioned, “Now, to suddenly appear as the viceroy or high commissioner of what appears to be a colonial project in Gaza? That will certainly not be well-received.”
Analysts warn that Iraq serves as a cautionary tale for Blair. They point out that the interim authority he and Trump envision for Gaza bears a strong resemblance to the Coalition Provisional Authority, which the U.S. established in Iraq after ousting Saddam Hussein.
This transitional Iraqi government, lacking popular legitimacy, failed to bring stability, leading to a brutal insurgency. It is primarily remembered for its financial missteps and a profound disconnect from the Iraqi populace, often likened to an overbearing colonial administration.
Blair’s blueprint for a Gaza International Transitional Authority, as obtained by The New York Times, attempts to sidestep these pitfalls. It proposes a Palestinian executive authority to manage essential services like health, education, and policing. The plan also emphasizes coordination with the Palestinian Authority on the crucial matter of disarming militant groups.
On Monday, Blair publicly endorsed Trump’s plan, hailing it as “bold and intelligent.” He stated that Trump’s choice to lead the ‘Board of Peace’ sends a “huge signal of support and confidence in the future of Gaza.”
However, Trump clarified he wouldn’t be involved in the daily operations, effectively delegating the substantial work to Blair. Blair’s institute already engages with approximately 40 nations globally, including Saudi Arabia, and counts Silicon Valley billionaire Larry Ellison—a staunch supporter of Israel—among its donors.
Blair has consistently maintained his dedication to the Palestinian cause. He recently shared with colleagues that, ever since 2005, following Israel’s withdrawal from the enclave, he has seen Gaza as a potential model for a sovereign Palestinian state, a vision he championed by hosting a London conference as Prime Minister that year.
Robert Danin, an American diplomat and long-term advisor who previously worked with Blair at the Quartet, stated that his former boss “possesses extensive experience in navigating bureaucracies and governments.” Yet, Danin expressed doubt regarding the sustained commitment of other key players, especially the United States.
“Many parties will simply wish to disengage,” he remarked. “The agenda they’ve proposed is incredibly ambitious, and its success will demand an immense amount of effort.”