At this year’s Conservative Party conference in Manchester, attendees were met with a nostalgic tribute to Margaret Thatcher. An exhibit showcased her iconic outfits, alongside personal letters and a documentary detailing her remarkable ascent to party leadership in 1975.
While intended to mark the 100th anniversary of Mrs. Thatcher’s birth, the display inadvertently symbolized the party’s current struggles. The Conservatives now appear to be a shadow of their former selves, feeling like a relic of the past.
Just sixteen months after a decisive defeat by the Labour Party, the Tories find themselves lagging significantly in national polls. They’re now behind not only Labour but also the rapidly rising anti-immigrant party, Reform UK, which currently holds a comfortable lead. Electoral projections suggest the Conservatives could plummet to the fourth-largest party in Parliament, even falling behind the Liberal Democrats.
Their few glimmers of hope include the current decline in popularity of Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and the fact that a general election isn’t expected until 2029. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservatives’ embattled leader, heavily emphasized Starmer’s difficulties in her conference address.
Badenoch sharply criticized Labour, stating, ‘My goodness, they have made a hell of a mess.’ She accused them of creating a ‘doom loop’ of stagnant growth and increased taxes, adding with a flourish, ‘Never in the field of human history have so many been let down by so few.’
However, Badenoch faces a complex challenge: she must rebuild her party’s standing while simultaneously defending against the right-wing pressure from Reform UK. She reiterated the Conservatives’ traditional stance as the party of fiscal responsibility, drawing a clear contrast with Reform’s ambitious but potentially unrealistic pledges and Labour’s perceived mismanagement of the economy.
Her most notable policy proposal was the abolition of ‘stamp duty’ for homebuyers above a certain threshold. Furthermore, she announced a new ‘golden rule’: her government would dedicate half of all savings from reduced spending to tackling the national deficit, with the remaining half allocated to tax cuts or other growth-stimulating initiatives.
Analysts, however, noted a significant hurdle: this economic message closely echoes the austerity measures implemented by former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron in the 2010s. Many voters who have shifted their allegiance to Reform UK tend to hold left-leaning economic views, despite their strong right-wing stance on immigration. Experts believe a platform centered on economic caution is unlikely to appeal to this crucial demographic.
Jill Rutter, a senior fellow at U.K. in a Changing Europe, questioned the strategy, asking, ‘Are there any voters left in the segment that the Conservatives are targeting?’ She concluded that for a party accustomed to governing, returning to power now seems a distant prospect.
The pervasive sense of crisis was palpable in Manchester. Conference attendance was notably sparse, and a significant defection of twenty Conservative local councilors to Reform prompted Nigel Farage, Reform’s leader, to proclaim triumphantly on social media that ‘The Conservative Party is finished.’
The depth of the Tories’ struggles has led political analysts to openly discuss the potential demise of a party that has governed Britain for approximately two-thirds of its history, dating back to 1834. Questions are now being raised about a possible takeover of the Conservatives by Reform UK, a prospect both Badenoch and Farage publicly reject.
Immigration stands out as another major vulnerability for the Conservatives. Reform UK has skillfully leveraged the significant increase in migration following Brexit against the Tories, coining the term ‘Boriswave’ to attribute it to former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Farage has committed to expelling up to 600,000 undocumented migrants and to mandating new visa applications even for those already granted residency in Britain.
Despite Badenoch’s announcement of plans to deport 150,000 individuals annually through a new agency, similar to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, other senior Conservatives acknowledged regret for the high number of arrivals during previous Tory administrations.
Chris Philp, a senior Conservative focused on immigration policy, stated, ‘It was a mistake; it should never have been allowed to happen. And under new leadership, we pledge it will never happen again.’
Badenoch’s leadership has been precarious since her election last November. Much like Starmer, who also faced skepticism entering his party’s recent conference, she has managed to hold on for now. However, political analysts anticipate that another significant defeat for the Tories in May’s local elections would likely trigger a new leadership contest.
She might draw some solace from the overwhelming Thatcher nostalgia at the conference. The film about the ‘Iron Lady’ highlighted that even Margaret Thatcher herself faced a challenging first year after unseating Edward Heath in 1975.
Edward Phillips, a Conservative local councilor from Ipswich, interpreted the film as a call for patience with Badenoch. Yet, he acknowledged the limitations of historical comparisons, stating that the political landscape has significantly changed.
Phillips emphasized, ‘This isn’t the 1980s anymore. You can’t simply transplant policies from that era into the 2020s. Kemi must formulate policies relevant to today’s challenges.’