After two long years, the release of Israeli hostages from Gaza and a halt to the intense conflict required the direct intervention of the American president and key leaders from various Arab and Muslim nations. Surprisingly, analysts suggest this might have been the simpler challenge.
The far more difficult task ahead involves convincing Hamas to relinquish its weapons and fully demilitarizing the Gaza Strip. These are critical prerequisites for Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza, a point emphasized by both President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday.
Beyond demilitarization, Mr. Trump’s comprehensive 20-point peace plan for Gaza addresses several other complex issues. It proposes the establishment of an international force to maintain security, a significant initiative to revitalize Gaza’s economy and infrastructure, and the formation of a temporary Palestinian governing committee, all under the oversight of an international board.
Discussions regarding who would govern the enclave ‘the day after’ the war proved to be so intricate and contentious during the initial cease-fire talks that they were eventually separated and deferred to a second phase of negotiations.
This ‘Phase 2’ began with a hopeful atmosphere on Monday evening in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. President Trump and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt hosted numerous leaders, aiming to capitalize on the momentum from the truce and the exchange of 20 living Israeli hostages and the remains of others for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.
“Phase 2 has started,” Mr. Trump declared, anticipating “tremendous progress.”
He confidently stated, “It’s peace in the Middle East. Everyone said it’s not possible to do. And it’s going to happen.”
Despite the optimistic start in Sharm el-Sheikh, the timing and location for the formal commencement of Phase 2 talks remain uncertain.
Both Israeli and Palestinian analysts agree that the path forward is fraught with challenges, making it easier to envision setbacks rather than the full realization of Mr. Trump’s ambitious plan.
“The main issue still hasn’t been solved: Hamas’s weapons,” explained Akram Atallah, a London-based Palestinian columnist from Jabaliya, northern Gaza. “The Israelis are demanding Hamas disarm, which is not a simple administrative measure. Hamas was founded on the basis of bearing arms.”
He added that Hamas is essentially being asked to “dismantle its ideology.”
Following a war that claimed tens of thousands of Palestinian lives and devastated much of Gaza, Mr. Atallah acknowledged the current optimistic mood but expressed uncertainty about its longevity. “It feels good right now,” he said, “but I can see dark clouds in the distance and I don’t know what they’re carrying.”
Israeli analysts and officials largely anticipate that Phase 2 talks will likely stall. They predict a prolonged status quo where Hamas remains armed, and the Israeli military maintains a presence in Gaza, treating the group similarly to how it handles Hezbollah in Lebanon—through occasional, distant strikes on militants or weapon caches.
Despite Mr. Trump’s unqualified assurances that the war is over, any misstep from either side could reignite the conflict, analysts caution.
“If there’s a terrorist attack against one of our posts right now, God forbid, and we have casualties, after a minute, it’s over,” stated Zohar Palti, a former senior official with Mossad and the Ministry of Defense.
Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli envoy and distinguished fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, highlighted the potential impact of domestic politics. “If it turns out in four or five weeks that the general mood in the country is that this war was an awful round, but only another round, and Hamas is back, I can see Netanyahu trying to correct that,” Mr. Novik observed, suggesting a possible resumption of hostilities. “All you need is a Hamas provocation and a disproportionate Israeli reaction, and you can have a spiral.”
Mr. Novik emphasized that Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt – the three Muslim-majority nations instrumental in brokering the Hamas-Israel cease-fire – bear the responsibility “to pressure Hamas not to provoke.”
For members of Mr. Netanyahu’s governing coalition, the responsibility rests solely on Hamas. Several officials characterized the current cease-fire agreement as merely a transaction: Israel conceded roughly half of Gaza in exchange for its hostages. For Israel to fully withdraw from the remaining territory, they argue, Hamas must disarm and allow another entity to govern the enclave.
“Things are very straightforward,” asserted Boaz Bismuth, a Netanyahu ally and head of the Knesset’s foreign affairs and defense committee. “If you don’t want Israel to be there, you know exactly what you have to do. It’s easy.”
However, stating a condition doesn’t guarantee its fulfillment.
Experts close to the militant group indicate that while Hamas is prepared to make concessions for Gaza’s reconstruction, it intends to maintain some influence over the territory’s future.
“Hamas is willing to offer some concessions to enable the rehabilitation of Gaza, but it will not evaporate,” said Ibrahim al-Madhoun, a Palestinian analyst close to Hamas. “Its focus is on quiet. It wants to be part of the solution, and it won’t be an obstacle to stability.”
Mr. Palti, the former Israeli intelligence and defense official, expressed considerable doubt about the Trump plan’s directive to exclude Hamas from any military or civilian role in Gaza’s governance.
“Who’s going to do it?” he questioned. “If somebody thinks that with a magic stick you’re achieving this revolution in hours or days, forget about it. It’s not going to happen. Not because I’m pessimistic; because I’m realistic.”
The plan’s suggestion of deploying an international stabilization force could facilitate a further Israeli military withdrawal. However, key details remain vague: which countries would contribute, how the force would be funded and trained, and its deployment timeline.
Moreover, the Palestinian Authority, which once governed Gaza and still has personnel there, appears largely sidelined from Mr. Trump’s initiative, pending unspecified reforms.
Yet, it would be premature to declare Phase 2 doomed from the outset.
Mr. Bismuth, the lawmaker from Mr. Netanyahu’s party, found significant encouragement in the participation of Arab nations in the peace talks, and even more so in Monday’s release of 20 Israelis held in Gaza since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks.
“I do believe that those who have to do the specific moves expected from them will do them,” he said. “When you have such results like today, you can believe in the optimistic scenario.”
Natan Odenheimer contributed reporting from Jerusalem.