A significant diplomatic shift is on the horizon, with approximately ten nations, including Australia, Belgium, Britain, and Canada, expected to formally recognize an independent Palestinian state. This historic announcement is anticipated to occur during a high-level summit preceding the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting.
But what would such widespread recognition truly signify for both the Palestinian people and the state of Israel?
Understanding the Current Status of Palestinian Statehood
The declaration of an independent Palestinian state by the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1988 was swiftly followed by recognition from much of the Global South. Currently, 147 out of 193 United Nations member states formally acknowledge Palestinian statehood, with Mexico being one of the most recent additions in January.
For a long time, the United States, Israel’s closest ally, has maintained that it would only recognize a Palestinian state once a mutually agreed-upon “two-state solution” is reached with Israel. Major European powers largely held this same stance until recently.
However, direct negotiations have stalled since 2014, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has definitively stated that a Palestinian state will never be established.
While the State of Palestine holds observer status at the United Nations, it lacks full voting rights. Achieving full U.N. membership, irrespective of widespread international recognition, would necessitate approval from the Security Council, where the United States retains veto power.
Globally, Palestinian diplomatic missions operate under the authority of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is internationally recognized as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
Led by President Mahmoud Abbas, the PA maintains limited self-governance in certain areas of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, a responsibility outlined in agreements with Israel. It manages essential services such as healthcare and education and issues Palestinian passports.
In contrast, the Gaza Strip has been under the administration of the Hamas militant group since 2007, following a brief civil conflict that saw the ousting of Abbas’s Fatah movement. Despite this, the PA continues to fund numerous salaries within Gaza.
Most major global powers, apart from the U.S. (whose embassy was moved to Jerusalem by President Donald Trump), maintain their primary diplomatic missions in Tel Aviv. This reflects their non-recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
Nevertheless, approximately 40 nations operate consular offices in Ramallah in the West Bank or in East Jerusalem. East Jerusalem, an area whose annexation by Israel remains internationally unrecognized, is claimed by Palestinians as their future capital.
These nations include prominent countries such as China, Russia, Japan, Germany, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and South Africa.
Those countries poised to recognize Palestine have not yet specified how this decision might alter their existing diplomatic representation.
Why Are More Nations Considering Palestinian Recognition Now?
Britain, France, Canada, Australia, and Belgium have all indicated their intent to recognize a Palestinian state, likely coinciding with the upcoming U.N. General Assembly. However, London has suggested it might delay this move if Israel takes concrete steps to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and commits to a lasting peace process.
French President Emmanuel Macron, a pioneering leader among major Western powers to endorse such recognition, stated that this step would be contingent on the Palestinian Authority committing to reforms. These reforms, he explained, are crucial for enhancing Palestinian governance and establishing a more credible partner for Gaza’s post-war administration.
Practical Implications of Palestinian State Recognition
Skeptics argue that recognition is largely symbolic, citing the limited impact of countries like China, India, Russia, and many Arab states that recognized Palestinian independence decades ago, yet have had restricted influence on the conflict.
Lacking a full U.N. seat and control over its own borders, the Palestinian Authority faces significant limitations in conducting bilateral relations. There are no formal embassies within Palestinian territory, and nations cannot freely dispatch diplomats to the area.
Israel imposes strict controls on the movement of goods, investment, and educational or cultural exchanges. Furthermore, there are no Palestinian airports. The landlocked West Bank is accessible only via Israel or the Israeli-controlled border with Jordan, and Israel maintains complete control over all access to the Gaza Strip.
Despite these challenges, countries planning recognition, along with the PA, assert that such a move would be far more than a mere symbolic gesture.
Husam Zomlot, the Palestinian ambassador to Britain, has expressed that this recognition could pave the way for partnerships between entities operating on a basis of equality.
According to Vincent Fean, a former British consul-general in Jerusalem, this diplomatic shift might also compel nations to reassess various facets of their relationships with Israel.
For instance, he suggested that Britain might consider banning products originating from Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, although he acknowledged that the economic impact on Israel would likely be minimal.
Israel and the United States: A Strong Reaction to Recognition Efforts
Amidst international condemnation for its actions in the Gaza war, Israel argues that recognizing Palestine would effectively reward Hamas for the October 2023 attacks that triggered the conflict.
For decades, Israel formally committed to a peace process aimed at Palestinian independence. However, the current Israeli government is its most far-right in history, comprising parties explicitly opposed to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has reiterated that Israel will never relinquish ultimate security control over both Gaza and the West Bank.
The United States remains steadfast in its opposition to these recognition efforts by its European allies. In response, it has imposed sanctions on Palestinian officials, including denying and revoking visas for President Abbas and other PA figures, effectively preventing their attendance at the U.N. General Assembly.