Just four years ago, the Czech Republic made headlines by ousting its populist, affluent, and scandal-ridden prime minister, affectionately known as the “Czech Trump.”
However, mirroring the surprising resurgence of former President Trump, Andrej Babis, who served as prime minister from 2017 to 2021, is now poised for a remarkable return to office. This potential comeback could usher in a Euroskeptic government that experts fear might scale back crucial military aid to Ukraine. His party, Ano, is widely expected to dominate the parliamentary elections, which commence this Friday for a two-day voting period.
At 71, Mr. Babis shares a key characteristic with Mr. Trump: a preference for a transactional approach to the European Union over grand foreign policy initiatives. Like his American counterpart, he is likely to advocate for other European nations to bear the brunt of supporting Ukraine, rather than sharing the responsibility equally. Furthermore, Mr. Babis is skillfully leveraging the nation’s shaky economy to bolster his appeal among voters, a tactic reminiscent of Mr. Trump’s own campaign strategy.
While no single major Czech party is projected to secure an outright majority in the 200-seat lower house of Parliament, Mr. Babis’s path to forming a government may depend heavily on his willingness to forge a coalition that includes more extreme political factions.
Andrej Babis, the former prime minister of the Czech Republic and chairman of the Ano party, at a campaign rally in Prague on Tuesday.
Daniel Hegedüs, the director for Central Europe at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, noted that at least two parties Mr. Babis might consider for a coalition openly harbor Euro-skeptic, NATO-skeptic, or pro-Russian sentiments. He warned that inviting such parties into the government would present “a nightmare scenario for international, European partners.”
Mr. Hegedüs elaborated that their influence could transform the Czech Republic into a “naysayer” on critical issues confronting the European Union, including ongoing support for Ukraine and imposing sanctions against Russia.
“There could be a profound reluctance to sustain aid to Ukraine and to maintain the constructive role within the European Union and NATO that the Czech Republic has previously embraced,” he cautioned.
Alliances Across the Political Map
Ano, a party whose name simply means “yes,” has put forth a platform promising tax cuts, increased pensions, caps on energy prices, and a freeze on politicians’ salaries. The party has also proposed eliminating fees that fund public television and radio, presenting this as another form of tax relief. However, opponents argue that such a move would grant the government undue control over broadcast media.
Mr. Hegedüs characterized Ano as a party primarily focused on economic and social issues, lacking a rigid ideological framework. Nevertheless, the government Mr. Babis led during his initial tenure as prime minister was generally perceived as politically center-left.
Last year, Mr. Babis co-founded the Patriots for Europe, a significant right-wing opposition force within the European Union, alongside Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Experts anticipate that if elected, Mr. Babis would align the Czech Republic with the nationalist agendas of Hungary and Slovakia, both of which maintain close ties with Russia.
Mr. Babis speaking at a rally in Ostrava, Czech Republic, last month.
During a recent debate this week, Ano did align with mainstream parties in identifying Russia as the primary threat to the Czech Republic. However, Mr. Babis and other Ano leaders have expressed more caution regarding continued military assistance to Ukraine in its defense against Russia. They have capitalized on widespread public fatigue with the three-year-long conflict, advocating for resources to be redirected back into the Czech economy.
Mr. Babis has also indicated his intention to dismantle a multibillion-dollar initiative focused on supplying Ukraine with critically needed ammunition, which is sourced from Czech companies. Other Ano officials have since tempered this position, suggesting that NATO could assume management of the program instead.
Both the right-wing Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party and the left-wing Stacilo party have explicitly pledged to terminate Czech aid to Ukraine, favoring diplomatic engagement with all major global actors, including Russia. It is likely that Mr. Babis will seek to form a coalition government with at least one, if not both, of these parties.
Vit Dostal, executive director of the Prague-based Association for International Affairs, believes that other European leaders will work to convince Mr. Babis to maintain the ammunition program under Czech leadership and to uphold a firm stance against Russia.
“I do not believe Merz desires another source of friction in Europe,” Mr. Dostal stated, referring to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a prominent advocate for Ukraine.
Politics at Play
Mr. Babis has publicly expressed a preference for governing independently, as a minority government, rather than forming a coalition similar to the current center-right alliance led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala. In such a scenario, Ano would oversee government ministries but would seek collaboration with other parties on a case-by-case basis to advance legislative initiatives through Parliament.
Another possibility, though one dismissed by both Mr. Fiala and Mr. Babis, is that Ano could align with more mainstream political parties, including those currently part of Mr. Fiala’s administration.
“Such a move would be challenging for these parties to justify to their constituents, yet it could be framed as a necessary measure to prevent extremist elements from gaining a foothold in government,” concluded an analysis from Mr. Dostal’s organization.
Mr. Babis, left, and Prime Minister Petr Fiala at a televised debate in Prague on Wednesday.
Czech President Petr Pavel is expected to maintain a steady hand on foreign policy. Although the presidency is largely ceremonial, Mr. Pavel, a former NATO general, has exerted considerable influence on security matters.
However, the extent of his authority within a government led by Mr. Babis remains uncertain. The two men previously competed in the 2023 presidential election, which Mr. Pavel ultimately won.
Initial election results are anticipated to be announced as early as Saturday evening, though the process of forming a new government could extend for several weeks.
Barbora Chaloupková contributed reporting.