Thailand’s recent election presented voters with a stark choice: embrace a future rooted in nationalism, traditional monarchical respect, and maintaining the current system, or pursue a path of radical change and deeper democracy.
Against expectations and campaign polls, the nationalist vision ultimately triumphed in Sunday’s polls. Early results, with 89% of votes tallied, show the conservative-royalist Bhumjaithai party securing 194 out of 500 House of Representatives seats. This victory places them ahead of the progressive People’s Party, which finished with 115 seats, indicating a significant, perhaps globally influenced, shift in the nation’s political landscape.
For the first time in years, Thai voters decisively supported an establishment party, signaling a clear departure from the recent wave of progressive politics. This outcome, which defied pre-election polls favoring the People’s Party, highlights a public desire for stability amidst perceived external uncertainties.
This election represents a major win for Bhumjaithai, a party historically influential at the regional level and recently a key ‘kingmaker’ in national politics. Their leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, who served as prime minister of a minority government for the last five months, strategically called this snap election to preempt a potential no-confidence motion.
While Mr. Anutin’s party hasn’t secured an absolute majority, requiring him to forge a coalition, his strong influence over the Senate, filled with Bhumjaithai allies, likely ensures his control over both legislative houses.
Speaking from his party’s Bangkok headquarters, Mr. Anutin affirmed, “We humbly accept the people’s mandate, their confidence, and their trust in the Bhumjaithai party.”
This election followed closely on the heels of one of the bloodiest border conflicts in decades between Thailand and Cambodia. Seizing on public anxieties, Mr. Anutin campaigned vigorously on a platform emphasizing national security, proposing a border wall, an expanded ‘volunteer military’ program, and a firm promise to retaliate ‘a hundredfold’ for any Cambodian aggression.
Tita Sanglee, an associate fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, suggested the election results stemmed from public concern over both the border conflict and the unpredictable foreign policy of the United States, a key Thai ally, during President Trump’s administration.
According to Ms. Tita, voters’ primary concerns have clearly pivoted “from reform to the urgent need for stability.”
The outcome delivered a significant setback to the progressive People’s Party, which had aimed to replicate its previous electoral triumphs from 2023. Analysts point to their prior advocacy for military reform as a critical weakness, a stance Mr. Anutin effectively leveraged to portray them as unpatriotic.
Sunday night saw People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut acknowledge the results, though he firmly declared his party would not form a coalition with Bhumjaithai, choosing instead to remain in opposition.
He urged his supporters, “Don’t stop believing. Don’t lose hope. We’ve come so far.”
This defeat has sparked internal debate within the People’s Party regarding their campaign strategy, specifically their attempt to adopt a more centrist image to appease Thailand’s influential conservative establishment, which includes the military, judiciary, and royal family.
Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Thailand Studies Program, noted a ‘brand dilution’ from an ideological perspective. He explained, ‘Its core supporters, primarily the youth, who were inclined to vote for the party on the basis of ideology, are just not as energized this time around.’
Mr. Anutin assumed the premiership late last year with the support of the People’s Party, then the largest parliamentary bloc. Their agreement was contingent on promises for early elections and a referendum to revise the military-drafted Constitution, which garnered over 65% approval.
Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, an independent Thai political analyst, believes the People’s Party’s endorsement of Anutin for prime minister will likely be viewed as a significant misstep in hindsight. ‘They handed him the benefits of incumbency, they allowed him to consolidate the conservative vote and they also damaged their own ideological standing,’ Lohatepanont remarked.
While Mr. Anutin refrained from discussing potential coalition partners, Bhumjaithai’s secretary general, Chaichanok Chidchob, expressed a personal interest in collaborating with the People’s Party.
In an interview, Chidchob stated, ‘I like a lot of their ideas,’ but added a crucial condition: ‘For me, I want them to be clear about their standpoint about the royal family.’
He further emphasized, ‘All this anti-monarchy stuff, it has to stop. We have so many other issues that we need to focus and solve.’
Bhumjaithai’s base of support comprises a traditional alliance of civil servants, military personnel, and royalists, with significant backing from the influential Chidchob family, a political powerhouse from Buriram province in Thailand’s northeastern region.
A significant number of voters appear to have gravitated towards Mr. Anutin, primarily due to his perceived effectiveness and ability to deliver tangible results.
Theerayuth Preedeesawat, a 47-year-old Bhumjaithai supporter, voiced his belief that his personal circumstances have improved under Mr. Anutin’s leadership.
At a recent Bhumjaithai rally in Bangkok, Mr. Theerayuth praised Anutin, stating, ‘He got things done with the Thai-Cambodia border clashes. He’s a man of action. I think Anutin is the best option for the country. He’s faithful to the people, the king and the country.’