In the Syrian town of Hmeimim, shops once bustling with Russian signs, like hair salons and kebab stalls, now stand mostly silent. Their doors are shut, a quiet testament to a changing landscape.
According to a local cafe owner, the soldiers from the nearby Russian air base, once frequent patrons, no longer come by.
Just ten months after the authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Russia’s once-dominant presence in Syria has all but vanished. Most of its troops have departed, leaving behind a decade’s worth of abandoned bases and investment projects.
Remarkably, Syria’s new leader, President Ahmed al-Shara – the very figure who led the Islamist rebel forces to overthrow the Assad regime and disrupt Russia’s regional agenda – chose to let Moscow retain a modest presence rather than expelling them entirely.
This Wednesday marks a historic occasion as President al-Shara makes his inaugural visit to Moscow, sitting down with President Vladimir V. Putin, who was once his formidable adversary.
Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, observes that President al-Shara’s actions clearly prioritize pragmatism over ideological alignment. ‘He has no reason to create another enemy,’ she explains, ‘as his primary goal is survival within this complex region.’
Many Syrians, including former rebels now governing the nation and long-returned refugees, harbor no affection for Russia. Moscow had staunchly supported Mr. al-Assad’s brutal dictatorship for decades and intervened directly in the 13-year civil war, carrying out devastating bombing campaigns on countless Syrian towns and villages.
During earlier discussions with Russian officials, Syria’s Islamist leadership demanded the extradition of Mr. al-Assad, currently residing in Moscow, to face war crimes charges, and insisted on war reparations from Russia.
However, Syria is grappling with immense security and economic difficulties, pressured by both its neighbors and major global powers. These challenges may compel President al-Shara to consider compromises. His key objectives include securing an end to international sanctions, alleviating the country’s severe poverty, and safeguarding Syria’s borders from external interference as he works to consolidate power.
Analysts report that Russia has clearly stated its desire to retain its air bases in Syria – specifically at Hmeimim and a smaller facility in Qamishli – and to continue utilizing the crucial port of Tartus on the Mediterranean.
These facilities collectively represent Russia’s sole strategic outposts in the eastern Mediterranean, vital for aircraft and naval vessels journeying between Russia and Africa.
Syrian Foreign Ministry officials declined to comment on their government’s prospective ties with Russia. However, political analysts and leaders within Syria suggest that Moscow is no longer in a strong position to dictate terms.
As Ms. Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution aptly put it, ‘The reality is Russia remains in Syria, albeit with a significant political black eye.’
Russian personnel are now required to provide advance notice of their movements to Syria’s Internal Security Service and can only travel under official escort, as confirmed by Syrian security officers at checkpoints near Hmeimim and Tartus.
Abed al-Thalji, an independent Syrian analyst in Europe, notes that Russia, which once controlled the Tartus naval base, is now restricted to a single berth, granted only with Syrian permission. He adds that a Russian submarine previously stationed there now operates from Algeria and Libya, and military escorts for Russian shipments to Syria anchor off the coast of Egypt, a detail he tracks through maritime traffic.
Following the cancellation of Russia’s port management contract, the Syrian government this summer secured a new deal with Dubai Ports World. According to Ahmed Khalil, the port’s general manager since December, Dubai Ports World has committed to an $800 million investment in the facility.
Mr. Khalil stated that port activity has significantly increased since President Trump’s administration eased most U.S. sanctions.
He proudly reported, ‘All the quays are bustling, and we have ships queuing to enter.’
During an August visit, New York Times reporters observed evidence of continued Russian trade, including rolls of Russian steel stacked at the quays.
Moreover, multiple analysts indicate that Russia has supplied Syria with essential oil and grain at remarkably low, almost giveaway, prices.
Syria requires Russia’s support within the U.N. Security Council for critical security and political issues. As Mr. al-Thalji pointed out, President al-Shara and his interior minister remain on a U.N. sanctions list for alleged ties to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Another pressing matter is the enforcement of the Disengagement Treaty, which established a buffer zone along the Golan Heights, a treaty that Israel has reportedly violated by occupying Syrian territory since December.
Following the overthrow of Mr. al-Assad, Israel has repeatedly conducted airstrikes on Syrian military installations. Their concern stems from the possibility of the former regime’s weaponry falling into the hands of hostile groups. Furthermore, Israel views the country’s new Islamist leaders with suspicion, evident from the airstrikes on the Defense Ministry building in central Damascus this past July.
During the Assad era, Russian forces assisted in patrolling Syria’s southern border adjacent to the Golan Heights. Diplomats are now suggesting Russia might resume this role to de-escalate tensions between Israel and the new Syrian government.
After several months of discreet communications, Russia dispatched a high-level delegation to Damascus in September, led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Mr. Putin’s chief energy strategist, with the aim of realigning their relationship.
Maher al-Shara, the president’s brother, who is fluent in Russian and married to a Russian woman, greeted Mr. Novak. Maher al-Shara is understood to manage Russian affairs within the presidential office. Following Novak’s visit, a Syrian Defense Ministry delegation toured a Russian air defense training facility.
The specifics of any potential agreements remain unclear.
But Ms. Aydintasbas suggested that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a key ally of the Syrian president, would likely advise him to apply a pragmatic balancing act. This would involve weighing the potential security and economic benefits of closer ties with Russia against the risk of alienating Western partners.
She concluded, ‘It’s the classic Erdogan approach: skillful navigation among major global powers to create opportunities for a smaller nation.’
Saad Alnassife and Hussam Hammoud contributed reporting.