In the Syrian town of Hmeimim, the bustling Russian-language signs once adorning hair salons, kebab stalls, and mechanic garages now tell a different story. On a recent morning, most of these establishments stood eerily shuttered, reflecting a palpable shift in the region.
A local cafe owner confirmed the quiet transformation: soldiers from the nearby Russian air base, once a constant presence, no longer frequent these streets.
Just ten months after the authoritarian president Bashar al-Assad, Russia’s long-standing ally, was overthrown, Russia’s footprint in Syria has dramatically faded. Most of its military personnel have withdrawn, leaving behind largely abandoned bases and a decade’s worth of investment projects.
Remarkably, President Ahmed al-Shara, the leader of the Islamist rebel movement responsible for ousting the Assad regime and upending Russia’s regional interests, chose a pragmatic approach. Instead of a complete expulsion, he permitted Moscow to retain a minimal presence in the country.
This strategic diplomacy culminated on Wednesday with al-Shara’s inaugural presidential visit to Moscow, where he was set to meet with none other than President Vladimir V. Putin, a figure who was once his sworn enemy.
Shifting Allegiances: Russian Presence in Syria
Russian military vehicles were observed near Hmeimim, Syria, last August. Despite the overthrow of its long-time ally, Bashar al-Assad, Moscow maintains a crucial air base in the region.
Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, highlighted this strategic pivot: “With al-Shara, we are clearly seeing pragmatism over ideology. He has no incentive to create additional adversaries, particularly as he endeavors to establish stability within this volatile geographic region.”
A deep resentment towards Russia persists among many Syrians, including the former rebels now governing the nation and refugees who have returned home after years abroad. Moscow’s decades-long support for al-Assad’s brutal dictatorship, coupled with its direct intervention in the 13-year civil war — which included devastating bombing campaigns on Syrian communities — has not been forgotten.
Previous discussions between Syria’s Islamist leaders and Russian officials included demands for the extradition of al-Assad, currently residing in Moscow, to face war crimes charges, alongside calls for Russia to pay war reparations.
Nonetheless, Syria finds itself grappling with severe security and economic pressures from both its neighbors and major global powers. These challenges may compel al-Shara to consider significant compromises. His immediate objectives include negotiating an end to international sanctions, alleviating widespread poverty, and safeguarding Syria’s borders from external interference while consolidating his authority.
Analysts suggest that Russia remains resolute in its desire to retain its air bases in Hmeimim and Qamishli, along with continued access to the strategically vital port of Tartus on the Mediterranean coast.
These facilities are crucial for Russia, offering its sole stopover points in the eastern Mediterranean for military and commercial transit to and from Africa.
A Lingering Echo: Russian Signs in Hmeimim
A Russian-language sign remains visible in Hmeimim, even as the majority of Russian troops have departed from Syria.
Recalling Russian Patronage in Hmeimim
This restaurant in Hmeimim, like many local businesses, once thrived by catering to a Russian clientele.
Syrian Foreign Ministry officials refrained from commenting on their government’s strategic plans with Russia. However, political analysts and figures within Syria assert that Moscow is currently in a weak position to impose significant demands.
Ms. Aydintasbas aptly summarized the situation: “The reality is Russia continues to remain in Syria with a big, purple black eye.”
In a clear indication of diminished influence, Russian personnel are now required to provide advance notice of their movements to Syria’s Internal Security Service and can only travel under escort, as confirmed by Syrian security officers manning checkpoints near Hmeimim and Tartus.
Abed al-Thalji, an independent Syrian analyst in Europe, noted Russia’s significantly reduced control over the Tartus naval base. Moscow can now only utilize a single berth with Syrian permission. Russian submarines that once docked there are now stationed in Algeria and Libya, while military escorts for Russian shipments to Syria anchor off Egypt, according to al-Thalji’s tracking of maritime traffic.
Further illustrating Russia’s diminishing sway, the Syrian government canceled Moscow’s contract to manage the Tartus port. Instead, this summer, it inked a significant deal with Dubai Ports World, securing an $800 million investment in the facility, port general manager Ahmed Khalil confirmed in an interview.
Khalil reported a surge in port activity, attributing it to the recent lifting of most U.S. sanctions by President Trump.
“All the quays are busy and we have ships waiting to come inside,” he stated enthusiastically.
Despite the changes, evidence of continued Russian trade with Syria was apparent. During an August visit, New York Times reporters observed rolls of Russian steel among the goods stockpiled at the quays.
Vital Hub: Tartus Port’s Strategic Importance
The port of Tartus, Syria, seen here unloading cement, along with two air bases, represents Russia’s sole strategic stopover points in the region for transit to and from Africa.
Russia’s Enduring Interest in Tartus Port
Workers refitting a cargo ship at Tartus. Analysts indicate that Russia has expressed a clear desire to maintain its access to this Mediterranean port.
Several analysts also pointed out that Russia has continued to supply Syria with essential oil and grain at significantly subsidized prices, indicating a continued, albeit altered, economic relationship.
Despite the tensions, Syria still requires Russia’s support within the U.N. Security Council for critical security and political issues. Al-Thalji highlighted two key concerns: President al-Shara and his interior minister remain on a U.N. sanctions list related to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Furthermore, there’s the enforcement of the Disengagement Treaty for the Golan Heights buffer zone, which Israel has violated by occupying Syrian territory since December.
Following al-Assad’s removal, Israel has conducted numerous airstrikes on Syrian military installations, fearing that the former regime’s armaments might fall into hostile hands. Israel also views the new Islamist leadership with suspicion, evidenced by airstrikes on the Defense Ministry in central Damascus this past July.
During the Assad era, Russian forces patrolled Syria’s southern border with the Golan Heights. Diplomats are now considering whether Russia could reprise this role to de-escalate tensions between Israel and the new government.
After several months of discreet negotiations, Russia dispatched a high-level delegation to Damascus in September. Led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Putin’s chief energy strategist, the mission aimed to reset the delicate relationship.
Continued Russian Commerce at Tartus
The defunct cargo ship in Tartus undergoing refitting. Recent observations at the port still indicated ongoing Russian trade with Syria.
Russia’s Aid to Syria: Coal Shipments
Russian coal being unloaded at Tartus. Analysts report that Moscow has supplied Syria with vital oil and grain at highly reduced costs.
Maher al-Shara, President al-Shara’s brother, who is fluent in Russian and married to a Russian woman, extended the welcome to Mr. Novak. He is understood to oversee Russian affairs within the presidency. Following Novak’s visit, a Syrian Defense Ministry delegation was observed at a Russian air defense training center, suggesting a potential for renewed military cooperation.
The specifics of any potential agreements, however, remain undisclosed.
According to Ms. Aydintasbas, Syrian President al-Shara will likely draw counsel from his close ally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan’s seasoned approach would advise a delicate balancing act: weighing the geopolitical risks of alienating Western allies by aligning with Russia against the tangible security and economic advantages such an alliance could offer.
“It’s the Erdogan playbook of balancing acts among great powers and opening up possibilities for a small country,” she concluded, emphasizing the strategic pragmatism guiding Syria’s new leadership.