The wine trade is in trouble. With declining consumption, rotting fruit left on the vine, public health warnings, tariffs, and the overarching crisis of climate change, most people would agree that wine faces significant challenges.
The bigger question, then, is how should the wine industry respond? What, if anything, should it do differently? Or should it simply wait things out, hoping this is just a cyclical change?
Having covered wine for over two decades, I’ve never seen the challenges seem so formidable. For better or worse, here’s my assessment of what’s happening in the world of wine, along with some practical steps the industry could take to adapt.
The State of the Industry
A Fractured Consumer Base
It’s impossible to discuss wine consumers as a monolithic group, as they have vastly different interests and goals. I generally categorize most wine drinkers into two distinct groups.
On one side, you have the largest segment of wine buyers. These individuals aren’t particularly interested in how wine is produced, where it originates, specific vintages, or even its aesthetic qualities. For them, wine is primarily an inexpensive system for alcohol delivery that simply tastes good. They enjoy wine but aren’t committed to it; they might easily switch to hard seltzer, premixed cocktails, or even cannabis if those options proved cheaper and equally enjoyable.
On the other side is a smaller group of devoted enthusiasts who truly love wine and deeply appreciate all the intricate pleasures it offers. Like everyone else, they are sensitive to economic shifts, and may adjust their spending, but they consistently purchase wine and typically spend more per bottle than less-committed consumers.
Between these two extremes lie many different types of wine buyers. But broadly speaking, people either genuinely care about wine or view it as merely a means to an end.
A Dichotomy of Production
Globally, wine producers range from diversified multinational corporations to large companies and a multitude of small, family-owned businesses—a far greater diversity than found in any other alcoholic beverage sector. Each of these groups confronts unique interests and problems.
While big corporations and companies can indeed produce some excellent wines (the LVMH Group, for example, owns prestigious brands like Cheval Blanc and Dom Pérignon), they are also the most diversified, best financed, and least vulnerable to economic fluctuations and shifts in public perception.
In contrast, small family businesses, which form the very backbone of the global wine economy, are the most vulnerable and least flexible. These often act as both the guardians of tradition and the pioneers of innovation, largely contributing to the rich diversity that makes this such an exciting era for wine exploration.
Natural wine, which has revolutionized our perception of wine more than anything else over the past 25 years, emerged from an insurgency of these small businesses. These vignerons passionately argued that wine is an agricultural product cultivated by human hands, not an industrial commodity efficiently churned out in factories. These are the very wines that have seen a surge in popularity over the last two decades.
Just like any food product, wine can be mass-produced cheaply. However, those who genuinely appreciate quality wine and food consistently seek out superior options and are willing to invest a little more for them.
An Economic Downturn
Sales of the cheapest wines have seen the most significant decline, far exceeding that of pricier bottles. This trend is consistent across the globe. People are drinking less, but opting for higher quality—a pattern that has persisted for decades.
Health concerns contribute to this trend. Undeniably, excessive drinking is harmful. Moderate consumption, however, is a more nuanced topic, and the full truth can be elusive. My hope is that individuals can make informed choices. Personally, I find that wine in moderation enriches my life, and I believe it complements a healthy lifestyle that includes a balanced diet, adequate sleep, and regular exercise.
More expensive wines appear to have largely maintained their market. While quality isn’t solely determined by price, it’s reasonable to assume that wine holds greater importance for those willing to spend more on it.
Good wine doesn’t necessarily mean expensive wine. However, farming grapes conscientiously demands greater investment than the factory-farmed grapes and bulk wine that form the foundation of the cheapest supermarket brands. These commodity wines, often lacking cultural significance, are performing the worst.
Yet, wines with true meaning—those rooted in a specific place, crafted by individuals who either uphold traditions or forge new paths—are not immune to economic downturns. I believe these wines will always have an audience, but they are significantly more vulnerable to environmental and economic pressures than their mass-produced counterparts. These are the wines I care most about. When disasters like wildfires, hailstorms, and spring frosts strike—calamities often directly linked to climate change—these producers face existential threats. They simply lack the resources to withstand continuous crises. When you add the cumulative effects of tariffs and health warnings, the threat becomes even more acute.
How Can the Industry Adapt?
Slogans like “Got Milk” or “Where’s the Beef,” typically financed by large corporate interests, won’t work for the wine industry. Its fragmented nature, characterized by countless small businesses and diverse interests, makes it challenging to act in unison or fund such broad campaigns. Furthermore, strict regulations limit how alcoholic beverages can be promoted.
Nevertheless, there are concrete steps the industry can take to ensure its viability for decades to come.
Simplify Its Offerings
The United States currently grows and produces more wine than consumers are willing to buy. Wine consumption, after decades of growth, has seen an annual decline since 2018, with only a brief uptick during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.
Consequently, the wine industry must undergo the difficult process of consolidation. This has been a reality in Europe for years, as historic vineyard regions that once supplied inexpensive daily wines have seen their markets vanish.
This is unwelcome news for all growers and producers, especially for companies that define success solely by growth metrics. Publicly traded companies have resorted to selling off brands or even declaring bankruptcy.
However, for smaller growers and producers whose primary focus is artisanal quality, the outlook may not be as grim. Their customers, though possibly drinking less, remain largely dedicated to wine.
This segment of the industry might need to slightly reduce production. More importantly, they should double down on conscientious farming and crafting authentic, unpretentious wines. These are the brands and the wines that will truly endure.
Lower the Price
The broader wine community—encompassing producers, distributors, restaurants, and retailers—must collectively work to reduce the cost of wine. Younger generations are not purchasing wine at the same rate as older ones, and a major contributing factor is excessive pricing, particularly for American wines.
Unfortunately, winemaking costs significantly more in regions like California compared to Europe. While tariffs are often intended to create a level playing field, they ultimately increase prices across the board. Except for those in high-earning professions, very few younger individuals are willing to spend more than $20 for a glass of wine in a restaurant or $50 to $100 for a bottle in a wine shop.
Growers and producers must innovate to keep costs down while maintaining their commitment to careful farming and quality winemaking. In California, for instance, producers like Broc Cellars, Matthiasson, Hobo Wine Company, and Monte Rio have successfully launched lower-priced wines that uphold their established high standards. We need exciting, vibrant wines that retail for $20 to $30 and are available in restaurants for $10 to $15 a glass or $40 to $50 a bottle.
Restaurants and retailers also have a crucial role to play by refraining from excessive price markups. Catering exclusively to the affluent might generate short-term profits but will ultimately cripple the industry. Making wine more accessible and affordable to younger consumers will help secure a sustained audience for the future.
Lose the Snobbery
Wine needs to become more approachable and inviting. What makes it seem forbidding and intimidating? It’s not the delicious beverage itself. Rather, it’s the pervasive belief that one must study and understand wine before truly enjoying it. This very insistence on educating patrons, rather than simply letting them have a good time, has been the downfall of many American wine bars.
No one feels the need to explain how an electric guitar works before a concert. Similarly, let those who seek deeper knowledge about wine come to you. The best wine bars, such as Frog in Brooklyn and Easy Does It in Chicago, are always ready to share information when asked, but they never force it upon unsolicited guests. These establishments are thriving precisely because they attract the young audience the wine industry desperately needs.
What truly sells wine is the emotional connection people form with it. Wine should evoke feelings of joy, pleasure, reward, togetherness, and deliciousness. This emotional appeal is the true attraction, not how meticulously one can describe its flavors. Intellectual rigor can always follow for those who are interested. But to successfully sell wine, its inherent pleasures must be emphasized.
No single solution will miraculously resolve all of wine’s challenges. However, if the industry can focus on what wine does best—providing emotional and intellectual satisfaction, complementing meals, and enhancing social occasions—without pretension, it will undoubtedly solidify its cherished place on tables for generations to come.