Following his success in mediating a Gaza ceasefire, former President Trump has confidently asserted that another major foreign policy triumph is within reach: persuading Saudi Arabia to officially recognize Israel by the year’s end.
However, such an outcome is improbable. The Saudi Crown Prince, set for his first US visit in seven years, is focused on different, more pressing objectives.
Experts suggest that for Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s effective leader, forging ties with Israel is a long-term aspiration, likely requiring years, not mere months, to achieve.
Scheduled for mid-November, the Prince’s state visit agenda reportedly includes a mutual defense pact, anticipated to be signed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. This information comes from a US official and another source close to the trip’s planning.
Sources, who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the negotiations, indicated that this pact would mirror a recent security agreement between the US and Qatar.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia is seeking cutting-edge F-35 stealth fighter jets for its air force, as confirmed by the same officials. Saudi authorities are also keen to advance discussions on a potential deal providing access to American technology for their civilian nuclear program.
Achieving both a nuclear energy agreement and a defense pact, even if it doesn’t involve full congressional ratification as previously desired, would be a significant diplomatic victory for Prince Mohammed.
The Biden administration previously discussed these issues with the Prince, but conditioned them on Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel. These talks faltered following the outbreak of conflict in Gaza and the surge of anti-Israel sentiment across the Middle East.
Undeterred, Mr. Trump remains committed to pursuing this objective.
In an October 15th interview with Time magazine, he expressed confidence that a deal for Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic relations with Israel was “very close,” forecasting its completion by year-end.
Referring to the Gaza conflict during an October interview with Fox Business, Trump stated, “They couldn’t have done it during the war.” He now believes it will proceed with the current fragile ceasefire.
However, Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator with close ties to the kingdom’s leadership, remarked that formalizing relations between the two nations appears “virtually impossible” this year, “unless a miraculous change took place in Israel.”
According to Mr. Shihabi, Prince Mohammed, 40, sees normalization as contingent on Israel taking a “major, irreversible step toward a Palestinian state.”
He added that a Saudi-Israel agreement represents the last significant leverage an Arab state holds on behalf of the Palestinians. “The kingdom intends to use this card to definitively resolve the issue, aiming for the elusive long-term regional stability.”
This outcome is highly improbable given the current political landscape, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition allies have explicitly stated their opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state.
Many Israelis, deeply affected by the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, which sparked the Gaza war, share this perspective. For them, securing a relationship with Saudi Arabia is secondary to preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Bader Al-Saif, a history professor at Kuwait University, likened Mr. Trump’s assertions of an impending Saudi-Israel agreement to a “life coach trying to manifest wishes into existence.”
He emphasized that such a development could only occur by “addressing the root causes” of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
This stance is partly influenced by Saudi public opinion; a late 2023 poll revealed overwhelming opposition to ties with Israel among Saudi citizens. Even as the kingdom becomes more autocratic under Prince Mohammed, analysts note he must still consider public sentiment in his policy decisions.
The upcoming state visit to the United States is a significant moment for the Prince. His last trip in 2018 was an extravagant three-week tour where he engaged with Mr. Trump, prominent American business leaders, and media figures. During that visit, he promoted the oil-rich kingdom’s economic diversification and social reforms, including enhanced rights for women.
However, months after that tour, Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, an exiled Saudi writer, was brutally killed and dismembered by Saudi agents inside the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.
This incident drew immense international condemnation upon Prince Mohammed. The C.I.A. concluded that he had authorized Khashoggi’s killing, leading many global leaders and business figures who once embraced him to now avoid him.
While Prince Mohammed denied direct involvement in the murder, he acknowledged symbolic responsibility as the de facto ruler of the country.
Despite the initial global outcry, international condemnation of the prince was short-lived. Within months, American banking executives began returning to the kingdom. By 2022, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. even traveled to Saudi Arabia, famously exchanging a fist bump with the Prince.
To date, Prince Mohammed has not revisited the United States. His allies contend that this upcoming trip will mark the end of a difficult period, asserting his status as an undeniable political force.
In May, Mr. Trump selected Saudi Arabia for his first significant international trip of his second term. He lauded the Crown Prince’s initiatives to transform the kingdom, telling an audience of Saudi dignitaries and entrepreneurs that the global superpower would cease “giving you lectures on how to live.”
This week, Riyadh, the Saudi capital, hosted the Prince’s annual investment summit, drawing thousands of bankers, officials, executives, and entrepreneurs. The event clearly showcased his key priorities.
The forum featured numerous panel discussions on artificial intelligence. Several Saudi officials highlighted Prince Mohammed’s extensive megaprojects and his innovative strategy for the kingdom’s vast sovereign wealth fund.
Conspicuously absent, however, was any significant discussion of investing in or rebuilding Gaza—a crucial initiative Mr. Trump hopes to convince Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to spearhead.
The only public comments regarding normalization with Israel during the event came from Dina Powell, former deputy national security adviser to President Trump, who lauded the 2020 Abraham Accords that saw the UAE and Bahrain establish ties with Israel.
For several years, President Trump has openly advocated for Saudi Arabia to join these accords.
However, as Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project director at the International Crisis Group, emphasized, Saudi Arabia has “repeatedly clarified that Palestinian statehood must be a prerequisite” for any such agreement.
Ms. Farouk clarified that this doesn’t completely rule out normalization for Saudi Arabia. She noted that as long as Gulf governments can gain influence in Washington by strengthening ties with Israel, “normalization will always remain an option.”
Edward Wong contributed reporting from Ubud, Indonesia, and Eric Schmitt from Washington.